3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Monday 4/22/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. To Hit a Home Run (+500)

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a 4.21 implied run total against the St. Louis Cardinals and have a good matchup for home runs.

The Cardinals will have Lance Lynn on the bump tonight, who is one of my favorite pitchers to target for home run props.

Last season, Lynn allowed a .422 SLG, 1.86 HR/9, 41.5% fly-ball rate, and 18.7% HR/FB ratio against right-handed hitters. His stats this season are largely in line with what we saw last year, albeit in a smaller sample size.

We'll turn to Lourdes Gurriel, who was solid last year versus righties with a 100 wRC+, .220 ISO, 38.2% fly-ball rate, and 39.8% hard-contact rate. This season, Gurriel is off to a great start with a .204 ISO, 41.3% fly-ball rate, and 43.5% hard-contact rate against righties.

It's a strong spot, so I'll add Gurriel To Record an RBI (+135), too.

Austin Riley To Hit a Home Run (+360)

The Atlanta Braves have immense power in their lineup and a juicy matchup to attack.

With a 5.43 implied run total, the Braves are always going to be a team to target for home run props, and tonight is no different.

They are at home to take on Ryan Weathers, who is a young and unproven pitcher for the Miami Marlins. Last year, Weathers allowed a .539 SLG, 5.88 xFIP, 1.66 HR/9, 43.6% fly-ball rate, and 31.0% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. That is a rough set of stats to take into a matchup versus a powerful Braves lineup, so that leads me to Austin Riley.

Riley crushed lefties last year to the tune of a 143 wRC+, .387 wOBA, .289 ISO, 51.5% fly-ball rate, 40.2% hard-contact rate, and 22.0% HR/FB ratio. That is elite across the board and puts him in a great spot to produce. I'll add Riley To Record an RBI (+100), too.

Daulton Varsho To Hit a Home Run (+480)

With 15-20 mph winds blowing out to center, we could see some long balls between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Kansas City Royals.

I love it when there is a ton of wind because we get a free boost to the hitters, most of whom are already in a good spot.

Tonight, that starts with Daulton Varsho, who finished last season with a .190 ISO, 49.8% fly-ball rate, and 31.4% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. Varsho knocked all 20 of his home runs off of righties last year, so this is the split to target him.

He's up against Brady Singer, who has shown flashes of upside but didn't put it all together last season. Singer ended 2023 with .444 SLG, 4.52 xFIP, 0.94 HR, 40.7% hard-contact rate, and 33.4% fly-ball rate versus left-handed hitters.

All in all, it's a solid matchup and the weather is a great bonus to have. I'll add Varsho To Record an RBI (+130), too.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.