3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Monday 8/12/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Wilyer Abreu to Hit a Home Run (+500)

A familiar friend of this column returned to the bump last week, and I don't want to let his tiny win of a battle dissuade us from winning the war.

Tyler Mahle coughed up 1.75 homers per nine (HR/9) a year ago but was able to navigate 5.0 successful innings without one in his Texas Rangers debut. However, I'm not optimistic that sticks around when Mahle's flyball (50.0%) and hard-hit (38.9%) rates were already elevated. Baseball's second-best park for hitting could rattle his cage tonight, too.

Of course, that's Fenway Park and a date with the Boston Red Sox for Mahle and the league's fourth-worst bullpen by xFIP over the past 30 days (4.75). While some of you inched for Rafael Devers' picture on FanDuel's app, I want Wilyer Abreu instead at five-to-one odds.

Abreu hasn't homered since August 3rd and has mashed just four in the past 30 days, but against right-handers, he's shown great power in this time (.300 ISO) with awesome flyball (55.9%) and hard-hit (47.1%) rates for a tater. It's a riddle how he hasn't rounded the bases more often.

Nonetheless, FanDuel Research's daily MLB projections forecast 0.21 median home runs for the outfielder in tonight's game. If correct, that would merit roughly +428 odds, so there is value here.

Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+320)

All three of Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Giancarlo Stanton went deep for the New York Yankees yesterday, and today's matchup with the Chicago White Sox seems to beg the question of "who" homers on consecutive days rather than "if" it happens.

Chicago will send Ky Bush to the bump, which is a delightful proposition for opposing hitters. The southpaw has a 7.91 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) with insane flyball (54.5%) and hard-hit (45.5%) rates allowed for someone who escaped his MLB debut without coughing up a longball. Bush gave up 1.42 HR/9 in AAA; I'm not optomistic he -- nor the league's worst bullpen by xFIP over the past month (5.29) -- can hold back the Bronx Bombers.

Among the big boppers, Soto actually seems to be seeing the ball best against lefties despite the same-handed nature of his matchups. Soto has posted the best OPS (1.078), ISO (.467), flyball rate (42.3%), and hard-hit rate (48.1%) of the three over the past 30 days yet has the longest odds to go yard.

Our projections have more faith in Soto producing a big fly than any other player today. His 0.52 projected median homers would merit +147 odds for one if correct.

Taylor Ward to Hit a Home Run (+450)

Similar to Abreu, I don't think Taylor Ward has gone deep as often as he's deserved of late.

The Los Angeles Angels' outfielder has just two home runs in his past month of play, so his OPS (.650) and ISO (.150) against right-handers in this time don't scream a candidate for a home run. Yet, he's just had rotten luck to produce an excellent flyball (42.9%) and solid hard-hit (38.9%) rate and fall victim to an 11.1% homer-to-flyball ratio (HR:FB) that is below the league average (12.0%).

Today's matchup could change everything. The Toronto Blue Jays are sending Bowden Francis to the mound, and Francis' 1.99 HR/9 allowed is no fluke with gigantic flyball (41.7%) and hard-hit (38.9%) rates allowed. That 11.6% barrel rate isn't pretty, either. Ward's quality plate appearances -- and the need for them -- should extend late into this Orange County battle between two bottom-six bullpens (by xFIP) over the past 30 days, as well.

Our projections have Logan O'Hoppe as a likelier candidate to homer with much worse recent contact splits for a bomb. At longer odds, we also show value on Ward to homer; his 0.26 median projection would still merit +337 odds for a home run if correct.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.