3 Best NFL Bets and Player Props for Commanders at Chargers, Week 5

Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.

You've got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.

So, which bets stand out Sunday as the Los Angeles Chargers host the Washington Commanders? Let's dig into FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds to find out.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Commanders at Chargers Betting Picks

Under 47.5 Points (-115)
Chargers Under 24.5 Points (-115)

Though these teams' 2025 tendencies typically favor overs, I think they have the right skillsets to stop each other.

The total is elevated here because, in a dome, these are two top-13 teams in adjusted pace. The Bolts, specifically, have also been the NFL's pass-happiest squad with an 8.8% pass rate over expectation (PROE). I'm not sure this isn't the dawn of a new era for them, though.

It should be increasingly difficult to protect Justin Herbert with Joe Alt (ankle) joining Rashawn Slater on the pine for at least Week 5. The Commanders are also first in adjusted pressure rate (53.8%), per NFL's Next Gen Stats, and they're numberFire's ninth-best schedule-adjusted rush defense. If you can't protect the quarterback to shred D.C.'s iffy secondary, you could be in for a long day against them.

On the other side, Washington getting back Jayden Daniels is a plus, but Daniels is down two receivers, Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown, with Deebo Samuel (heel) likely to play but not 100%. L.A. has been more vulnerable as a rush D (18th, per numberFire) than pass (3rd), and Washington is second in the NFL in rushing yards per attempt (5.9 YPA). But, that's not a bad thing to bleed clock for the total.

Even with all these offense-leaning trends, both teams are just 2-2 to the over. Mounting injuries could lead to yet another under.

Any trepidation of an under because of Daniels' return and a positive rushing matchup for D.C. is understandable, so the Chargers' team total (24.5) coming at a key scoring outcome is actually my preferred play if available.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt Over 32.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Perhaps to my detriment, I'll dive into the Commanders' three-headed backfield with this prop.

At the very least, it's pretty obvious that Jacory Croskey-Merritt's role couldn't get much worse. He's only logged 36.2% of the snaps in the last two weeks, which is just behind Chris Rodriguez Jr. (39.0%) and just ahead of Jeremy McNichols (29.5%) since Austin Ekeler went down. It's a true three-way split.

Croskey-Merritt is performing well, though. He's Pro Football Focus (PFF)'s highest-graded running back (90.6) in the NFL and ranks seventh among backs with at least 10 attempts in yards after contact per carry (3.96 YAC/c). The problem? Both Rodriguez and McNichols are above him in YAC/c, too. It must be a Washington thing.

Even if Bill's role doesn't increase, he's managed 36.5 yards per game since Ekeler's injury. However, rumors of an increase will persist as long as this performance in a small sample holds.

FanDuel Research's NFL player prop projections expect 38.6 yards on 8.5 carries for Croskey-Merritt in this one. The positive matchup helps alleviate the ever-present concerns of whether or not he'll be freed.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.