Adjusted NFL Pace and Pass Rate Report: Ranking Week 5's Fastest Games

• Advanced Offensive Metrics Provide Better Context: Pass rate over expectation (PROE) and adjusted pace help us better understand team tendencies because they account for game context rather than relying solely on raw play counts.
• Pace Slowed in Week 4: League-wide pace started off slow but had quickened each week through Week 3 but took a step back in Week 4 and seems to be settling in across the whole year.
• Teams Have Become More Run-Heavy Each Week: Pass Rate over expectation numbers have dipped with each week of the season so far.

Pace and pass rate can tell us a lot about offensive tendencies for NFL teams.

Teams that are trailing will -- naturally -- be inclined both to play faster and throw more often than they may initially want to do.

Conversely, perhaps quick, pass-heavy teams are getting out to big leads and are then slowing things down in the fourth quarter and grinding clock.

These will affect raw outputs for team data, so I wanted to account for that when digging into team pace trends.

This season, I'll be posting pass rate over expectation numbers (as designated by nflfastR's live win models, which account for game situation) and adjusted pace numbers (my own methodology of anticipating expected pace based on numerous in-game factors).

NFL Pace and Pass Rate Over Expectation

This table shows pass and run plays per game, adjusted pace, pass rate plus pass rate over expectation, pass rate over expectation, and no-huddle rates that exclude two-minute drills.

2025 Pace and Pass Rate Notes

Notes After Week 4

Pace

• With Jaxson Dart under center, the New York Giants logged their fastest adjusted pace of the year (29.7) in Week 4.
• After a slow Week 1 with a new coordinator, the Detroit Lions have played fast three straight games.
• The Washington Commanders have slowed in two games with Marcus Mariota under center but should play faster once Jayden Daniels returns.
• Six teams have yet to log a game with an adjusted pace under 30 seconds and are typically running the play clock under 10 seconds -- on average -- once adjusting for game context: the Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, Carolina Panthers, Minnesota Vikings, and Baltimore Ravens.

Pass Rate Over Expectation

• Weekly league-wide PROE numbers by week have been 0.0%, -0.4%, -2.6%, and -3.8%, showing a decline in pass-heaviness each week.
• The New York Jets returned to a league-low in PROE (-14.0% in Week 4) with Justin Fields under center.
• The Las Vegas Raiders started the year off with two positive PROE games but have logged -15.4% and -13.8% marks the last two weeks.
• Only two teams have had positive PROE numbers in all four games: the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs, which isn't a surprise, as they lead the league in PROE by a wide margin.
• Six teams have not had a positive week by PROE yet this year: the Seattle Seahawks, Detroit Lions, Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, Philadelphia Eagles, and Green Bay Packers.

NFL Week 5 Pace and Pass Rate Preview

Here's a look at this week's games in terms of average pace and pass rate (plus pass rate over expectation). The table is initially sorted by average offensive pace, so the higher the game, the faster it should be -- and the more plays we should anticipate.

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