3 Best NBA Bets and Player Props for Suns at Nuggets

Even within a single NBA game, betting markets are abundant.

You can bet traditional markets like the spread or the total, but we've also got tons of player-prop markets to sift through.

Which bets stand out today as the Phoenix Suns face the Denver Nuggets?

Let's dig into the best bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA betting odds, utilizing FanDuel Research's NBA projections to try to find value.

Suns at Nuggets Betting Picks

Nuggets -7.5 (-110)

The Nuggets (40-22) will host the Suns (29-33) this evening, and we can look for the home team to cover a 7.5-point spread.

Denver checks in with a +5.2 net rating (fifth-best in the NBA). At home, they've managed a stellar 21-9 record and a +7.0 net rating. Phoenix's -2.1 net rating (11th-worst) falls to -4.8 on the road. That leaves us with an 11.8-point difference in ratings between the home Nuggets and the road Suns.

The Nuggets went just 2-2 on a recent four-game road trip but have gone an excellent 12-3 since the final day of January. Moreover, they historically win big at home against lesser opponents.

Denver has gone an almost perfect 13-1 at home versus clubs that show a negative net rating. They won all but one of those games by at least 11 points and posted a magnificent 19.5-point average margin of victory in this split. It has not only been normal -- but essentially inevitable -- for the Nuggets to blow these teams out at home. See why we like them to cover a 7.5-point spread tonight?

The Suns could have some mojo after pulling off a 23-point comeback on Tuesday, but I still think they are outmatched and overvalued. This team has gone 4-11 since the start of February and rarely seem to be on the same page.

I'll note that Nikola Jokic (ankle) is listed as questionable. FanDuel currently lists Jokic's props, so it might be best to wait for confirmation on his status before pulling the trigger here.

Nikola Jokic Over 27.5 Points (-112)

We touched on how great Denver has been at home against poorly-rated opponents. It's no surprise that the Joker has been awesome in this split, too.

Jokic has played 19 home games against teams that own a +1.8 net rating or worse. In this split, he's averaged 32.1 points and scored at least 27 points at an 89.5% clip. He tipped over 27.5 points at a 73.7% rate. These -112 odds imply only a 52.8% probability.

Jokic To Score 30+ Points is currently sitting at +136 odds (42.4% implied probability). That's another line we might want to take advantage of, as the big man scored at least 30 in 57.9% of games in that aforementioned split.

The Suns surrender the seventh-most points to centers per minute. I think they'll allow Jokic to have a mighty night.

Kevin Durant Over 31.5 Pts + Reb (-122)

Although we've been sour on the Suns, there is value to be had in Kevin Durant's combined points and rebounds (PR) prop.

For as good as the Nuggets have been, they are still one of the more stat-sacrificing teams across the league. They play at the fifth-fastest pace and come in with only a 16th-ranked defense. That's led to them giving up the ninth-most points per game.

KD figures to benefit from a pace-up environment. On the season, he's averaging a nice 32.9 PR per game. In 12 contests against top-6 pace opponents, he's averaging an increased 34.7 PR and has cleared 31.5 PR at a strong 75.0% rate. He earned 33 PR his last time out versus Denver and is worth backing this go-around.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.