4 Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Thursday 6/19/25

In a given MLB slate, you've got tons of markets to dig through, from totals to home runs and strikeout props.

Which bets stand out for today's games?

Below, I'm going to run through my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. You can get additional insights from our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks

Minnesota Twins at Cincinnati Reds

Trevor Larnach to Hit a Home Run (+460)

My favorite bet of the day comes in the first game (12:41 p.m. ET) as I like Trevor Larnach to go yard at the Cincinnati Reds.

Larnach is slated to face Reds starter Nick Martinez, and he's been good in this split in 2025, generating a .345 wOBA while hitting 9 of his 10 dingers versus RHP.

Martinez isn't having much success against left-handed hitters. Through 150 lefty batters faced, he's allowed a 43.9% fly-ball rate in the split. He's been struggling of late, too, pitching to a 5.15 xFIP and giving up 2.87 jacks per nine over 15 2/3 innings this month.

Not only is this game at homer-happy Great American Ball Park, but the wind is blowing out to left-center at 12 MPH.

All in all, I think there's a lot to like about Larnach at these +450 HR odds.

Cleveland Guardians at San Francisco Giants

Under 7.5 Runs (-110)

The San Francisco Giants host the Cleveland Guardians at 4:06 p.m. ET today, and runs should be hard to come by as we've got Logan Webb and Gavin Williams taking the bump.

Webb has long been a top-notch pitcher with a high ground-ball rate. In 2025, he's taken things to a new level as he's upped his strikeout rate to 27.6%. It's resulted in a career-best SIERA (2.71) as well as Webb sporting the fifth-shortest NL Cy Young odds. He should be able to quiet a Cleveland offense that sits just 25th in wOBA (.300).

While Williams isn't as Webb's level, he's got some promising numbers in his profile, including a 12.2% swinging-strike rate. He also gets a friendly matchup as San Fran is 21st in wOBA (.305) with the 11th-highest K rate (22.6%).

After Williams and Webb are gone, the bullpens can thrive as both rank in the top 13 in xFIP this campaign.

Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays

Over 8.5 Runs (-105)

There are two meh hurlers going tonight in hitter-friendly Tampa, and that has me on the over.

Charlie Morton is still pitching decently well at the age of 41, but there are defintely some warts in his profile. The one I most care about is his gopher-ball issue as he's giving up 1.48 jacks per nine innings this season. Left-handed hitters have tagged him for a 45.5% fly-ball rate, and that could be his undoing at George M. Steinbrenner Field, which has been the sixth-best park for home runs, per Statcast Park Factors.

For Tampa Bay, Drew Rasmussen is taking the ball. Rasmussen is having a nice year, recording a 3.53 SIERA, but at the same time, he's not getting many whiffs with an 8.9% swinging-strike rate. He's also surrendering 1.23 homers per nine and a 38.4% hard-hit rate to lefties, which could spell trouble against the likes of Gunnar Henderson, Ryan O'Hearn and Jackson Holliday.

Both bullpens are likely pretty gassed, too, after yesterday's 12-8 shootout in which the game's two starting pitchers combined to cover a total of 3 2/3 innings.

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers

First 5 Innings: Dodgers -2.5 (+168)

No matter which angle I choose to look at for this San Diego Padres-Los Angeles Dodgers clash, everything seems to be coming up Dodgers, so I'm going to take a swing at LA to be ahead by at least three runs at the end of the first five innings.

LA has Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the mound. Yamamoto has had a bad day in two of his last three outings, but he's been excellent other than that. For the year, he owns a 3.25 SIERA and 28.6% K rate. He should be able to bottle up the Padres' offense, especially early as he holds batters to a .260 wOBA with a 29.4% K rate the first time through the order.

The Dodgers' offense gets to take its hacks against Ryan Bergert. A right-handed rookie, Bergert has produced a 4.46 SIERA through his first 19 1/3 MLB frames. His swinging-strike rate is a lowly 6.8%, and his fly-ball rate is way up at 50.0%. In 36 Triple-A innings this season, he allowed 1.50 homers per nine. He'll likely need a lot of batted-ball luck to keep the Dodgers' high-octane offense under wraps.

I am expecting Yamamoto to do well and the Dodgers' offense to light up Bergert.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.