3 Best MLB Strikeout Prop Bets for Tuesday 6/10/25

Within a given MLB slate, there are tons of strikeout props to sort through as there are lines posted for most of the day's starting pitchers.

Across today's action, which MLB player props seem to present the best value in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds?

We're going to dig into that today, laying out my favorite strikeout props across all the action. You can also do some research of your own by digging into our MLB player prop projections.

Please note lines and MLB projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB K Prop Picks

Tyler Mahle Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+118)

We get Tyler Mahle and his 2.02 ERA in a revenge game against the Minnesota Twins tonight, and yet the model is peddling the under. Rude.

Results-wise, Mahle has been a beast, and some of it is sustainable with how well he's suppressing hard contact. The issue is that it hasn't come with a ton of strikeouts. He's at 18.8% there, and his swinging-strike rate is a modest 10.5%.

The Twins are also a below-average matchup for a righty. The active roster has a 20.5% strikeout rate against them this year, down from the league-wide mark of 22.0%.

Once you stick that on the road, you get a strikeout projection closer to four than five. Maybe Mahle gets extra juiced to face his old teammates, but I do agree that backing the under is the proper play.

Noah Cameron Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+112)

Based on the whiffs he generates, Noah Cameron's strikeout rate should be higher than its current mark of 16.0%. That's a big part of why I like backing the over even against the New York Yankees.

In 5 big-league starts, Cameron's swinging-strike rate is 11.1%. You'd typically associate that with a strikeout rate in the low-20% range rather than the teens. It lines up with his 14.3% swinging-strike rate in Triple-A where he converted that to a 28.6% strikeout rate. He was also at 29.0% in 9 Triple-A starts last year. He has the stuff to get strikeouts even if he hasn't shown that yet.

The Yankees also aren't a bad matchup for a lefty, at least in terms of strikeouts. The active roster is at 23.4% there, though it comes with gobs of power and walks aplenty. It's a risky spot to be sure.

I think that risk is justified based on the market here. Cameron could implode, but he has the upside to make us consider the over regardless when we're getting +112.

Shane Smith Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+108)

Typically when Shane Smith is in this piece, we're backing his over. The dude is nasty, and markets don't tend to be all that high on him.

Tonight, though, he's on the road and facing the Houston Astros. That dings him enough where I actually come in below market.

The Astros' active roster has just a 20.1% strikeout rate against righties this year. Granted, they also don't draw walks, so opposing righties average just 3.70 pitches per plate appearance, but it's because the Astros are swinging away. It's not as big of a boon for K props as you'd hope.

As for Smith, he's still not getting a full leash. His max pitch count is 91, and he has been under 90 in all but 1 start.

When I put Smith at 87 pitches tonight, his strikeout projection settles in at 4.48. Pitchers in that range for me have gone under 4.5 strikeouts 51.7% of the time, implying we're getting value at +108.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.