3 Best MLB Strikeout Prop Bets for Thursday 5/1/25

Within a given MLB slate, there are tons of strikeout props to sort through as there are lines posted for most of the day's starting pitchers.

Across today's action, which seem to present the best value in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds?

We're going to dig into that today, laying out my favorite strikeout props across all the action. You can also do some research of your own by digging into our MLB player prop projections.

Please note lines and MLB projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB K Props

Kyle Freeland Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-113)

I -- regrettably -- bet the Colorado Rockies' moneyline this morning. It's +210 at FanDuel as of this writing if you also hate money.

I did this because I think I'm off market on both starting pitchers, and we can see part of why in each of their strikeout props.

Beginning with Kyle Freeland, even though his ERA is 5.93 this year, he has done some interesting stuff. His swinging-strike rate is a career-high at 10.9%. That could be due to a new sweeper he's throwing, which is generating a 33.3% whiff rate, according to Baseball Savant. If he can maintain that, his strikeout rate should rise from its current slot of 17.0%.

Some of that inflation could come from his opponents tonight as the San Francisco Giants have a 24.1% strikeout rate against lefties on their active roster since the start of last year. As a result, I've got Freeland projected for more than four strikeouts, enough for me to show value in the over.

Justin Verlander Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-108)

Even in a high-strikeout matchup for Justin Verlander, I can't get close to this number.

Verlander is getting whiffs and strikeouts to open the year. He has a 21.1% strikeout rate with a 12.9% swinging-strike rate, both of which are way up from last year. The velocity on his four-seamer is good, too, so things look decent under the hood.

But even when I project Verlander to stay at his current strikeout rate, I still have him pegged for 6.38 strikeouts. Pitchers in that range for me have gone under 6.5 strikeouts 61.5% of the time. This is a mark he has hit just once this year and five times since the start of 2024, so I just feel as though the market is too high.

Casey Mize Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)

On the heels of a pair of impressive outings, Casey Mize is a pitcher I'm willing to bet on against the Los Angeles Angels.

Over his past two starts, Mize has let up just two earned runs in 12 1/3 innings. His ERA in 5 starts is 2.12. That hasn't always come with a ton of strikeouts, but he is getting whiffs. He's starting to show glimpses of his draft pedigree.

Despite the whiffs, I'm not projecting Mize's strikeout rate to rise much from its current mark of 19.5%. But when you put that against an Angels active roster with a 24.4% strikeout rate against righties since the start of last year, Mize's strikeout projection sits at 4.79. That's enough for him to go over 4.5 about 53% of the time, implying value at even money.

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Which strikeout props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.