3 Best MLB NRFI Bets on Tuesday 6/10/25

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NRFI Betting Picks for Today

Washington Nationals at New York Mets

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-128)

We could have a pitchers' duel on our hands between MacKenzie Gore and Griffin Canning tonight, which opens the door for a NRFI.

Gore has enjoyed a breakout campaign and comes in with a 2.50 SIERA, 35.4% strikeout rate, and 7.2% walk rate over 13 starts. He's given up first-inning runs in just four of those outings and has an even better K rate the first time through the order (37.6%).

The New York Mets have logged quality offensive numbers in the opening frame, but it hasn't translated to consistent production, as they're tied for 18th in YRFI rate (27.3%) and 16th in first-inning runs per game (0.48). With such elite strikeout numbers, Gore ought to be able to get the job done.

Canning will be tasked with silencing the Washington Nationals' bats, and while the right-hander's 2.90 ERA might regress due to a 4.10 xERA, he's frequently putting up zeros in the first inning. He's allowed first-inning runs in 2 of 12 starts, and that coincides with a 3.35 xFIP, 25.9% strikeout rate, and 50.7% ground-ball rate the first time through the order.

The Nats are above average in YRFI rate (32.3%), but Canning's track record suggests he should come through for us. Most notably, Canning's improved ground-ball rate has greatly reduced the home runs he's allowed (0.92 HR/9) after struggling with dingers for much of his career.

New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-118)

The New York Yankees have the league's best YRFI rate (39.1%), but even they record a NRFI more often than not, so we shouldn't be immediately scared off by this matchup. It also can't hurt that they'll have Max Fried on the mound to quiet the Kansas City Royals' bats.

The Royals are in the bottom half for YRFI rate (27.3%), and they're unlikely to bump that number up against Fried. The veteran lefty has allowed an earned run in the first inning just once across 13 starts, which is backed by good-to-great marks in strikeout rate (24.1%), walk rate (5.6%), and ground-ball rate (51.8%). Best of all, he's given up just 0.56 HR/9 and has consistently suppressed home runs throughout his career.

Kansas City southpaw Noah Cameron has recorded a 0.85 ERA through five starts that's definitely due for regression, but he does carry an encouraging 3.18 xERA, which includes giving up just a 4.4% barrel rate. He's pitched five scoreless first innings so far and hasn't even allowed a first-inning hit yet.

While counting on Cameron carries some risk against such a tough lineup, we need only one clean inning out of him before New York's sluggers potentially figure him out. Our Jim Sannes likes Cameron to log over 4.5 strikeouts today, citing that his 11.1% swinging-strike rate should lead to a higher K rate going forward.

Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-130)

This matchup has a modest 7.5-run total, so the market isn't expecting a high-scoring battle between the Chicago White Sox and Houston Astros. That should increase the likelihood of a NRFI, as well, particularly with the Astros being involved.

Houston has been the worst team at first-inning scoring this season, ranking last in YRFI rate (16.9%) and first-inning runs per game (0.23) -- and no other team is particularly close.

With this in mind, promising Chicago right-hander Shane Smith shouldn't have much trouble getting through the opening frame unscathed. He's allowed first innings runs in 2 of 12 starts, and that's supported by him being lethal the first time through the order with a 3.08 xFIP and 28.7% strikeout rate.

While the White Sox are more of an average offense in the first inning, Lance McCullers will get the ball for Houston, and his improved play over his last few starts should give us confidence.

McCullers got off to a rough start to the season after a multi-year absence, but over his last three starts, he's recorded a 2.10 xFIP, 39.1% K rate, and 7.2% BB rate. The 31-year-old has been a strong pitcher throughout his career, and this is a great sign that he's finally healthy and finding his form again.

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