3 Best MLB NRFI Bets on Monday 8/11/25

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NRFI Betting Picks for Today

Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (+100)

It's always risky taking a NRFI at Great American Ball Park, but there is enough in Monday's matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and Cincinnati Reds to have some confidence in zero runs being scored in the opening frame at these odds. Currently, it will be Taijuan Walker (10-3 NRFI record) squaring off against Andrew Abbott (19-1 NRFI record) to begin the three-game series for Philly and Cincy.

Even though Walker is producing a 4.31 xFIP and .333 BABIP in the first inning this season, the matchup is ideal, with the Reds registering the eighth-worst wOBA (.269), seventh-worst wRC+ (67), and second-worst ISO (.054) in the first inning over the last 30 days. Additionally, Cincinnati has failed to score a run in the opening inning in seven consecutive contests.

While Abbott has a 4.70 xFIP in the first inning, he's also giving up just a .196 BABIP and 0.90 WHIP in the opening frame of his starts this year. Despite the Phillies being a dangerous lineup near the top of their order, they've gone two straight games without scoring in the first inning, and it helps that Abbott will likely see two lefties (Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper) to begin Monday's outing.

Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-108)

Although Yankee Stadium is another venue that is known for being hitter-friendly over the years, I'm still interested in no runs being tallied in the first inning of Monday's clash between the Minnesota Twins and New York Yankees. At the moment, it will be Zebby Matthews (7-1 NRFI record) facing Will Warren (19-5 NRFI record) for Monday's series opener.

We only have an eight-game sample for Matthews, but the 25-year-old hurler has logged the eighth-best xFIP (2.93) and third-highest strikeout rate (36.4%) among pitchers with eight-plus starts in 2025. And across the last 30 days, the Yankees have posted the 4th-worst wOBA (.291), 4th-worst wRC+ (85), and 12th-highest strikeout rate (22.7%) in baseball during that span.

On the flip side, Warren is notching the 23rd-best xFIP (3.05) and 26th-highest strikeout rate (30.0%) in the first inning among pitchers with eight-plus starts. While Warren does struggle against left-handed hitters (.365 wOBA and 1.48 HR/9 vs. LHB), he should be able to neutralize the Twins in the opening frame, especially if Byron Buxton remains out.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-136)

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Texas Rangers have each gone three-plus games in a row where they've managed to plate at least one run in the first inning, but I believe both streaks come to an end on Monday. Even with there being less confidence in Ryne Nelson (11-3 NRFI record) contributing toward a NRFI in this matchup, we get Nathan Eovaldi (16-3 NRFI record) on the mound at home.

Along with Eovaldi sporting a stellar 2.73 xFIP, 29.0% strikeout rate, and 0.39 HR/9 at home (compared to a 3.05 xFIP, 24.5% strikeout rate, and 0.42 HR/9 on the road), he's rocking a 3.14 xFIP and 1.00 WHIP in the first inning this season. Eovaldi also has the eighth-highest groundball rate (54.9%) in the opening inning among pitchers with 10-plus starts under their belt, which should help against Arizona's best hitters at the top of the lineup.

As for Nelson, we're leaning more on the matchup than his production, as the right-handed starter is accruing a forgettable 5.08 xFIP, 1.43 WHIP, 1.90 HR/9, and an 11.7% walk rate in the first inning this year. That being said, Nelson is capable of coming away unscathed in the first inning due to the Rangers having the fifth-worst wOBA (.258), fifth-worst wRC+ (63), and fifth-worst ISO (.081) in the opening inning across the last 30 days.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.