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How Should We View George Pickens for Fantasy Football With the Cowboys?

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How Should We View George Pickens for Fantasy Football With the Cowboys?

Navigating streaky, young receivers is one of many challenges in fantasy football. Despite oozing with talent, some pieces simply disappear far too often.

After reaching at least 800 receiving yards in his first two seasons, George Pickens continued to produce with 900 receiving yards a season ago. He's yet to become a fantasy mainstay, though, mostly due to the Pittsburgh Steelers' up-and-down offense.

Pickens could get more fantasy football attention going into 2025 after being traded to the Dallas Cowboys.

With the help of FantasyPros' consensus average draft position (ADP) data for half-PPR leagues, what is Pickens' fantasy stock for the upcoming season?

George Pickens' 2024 Season

After finishing as WR26 in half-PPR leagues in 2023, Pickens took a major step back as WR42. He logged 103 targets for 59 catches, 900 receiving yards, and 3 receiving touchdowns compared to 106 targets for 63 receptions, 1,140 receiving yards, and 5 receiving touchdowns in the 2023 campaign.

However, Pickens' per-game averages were actually solid when considering he was out for three games. This put his averages at 4.2 catches, 64.3 receiving yards, and 0.2 receiving touchdowns per game compared to 3.7 receptions, 67.1 receiving yards, and 0.3 receiving touchdowns per contest in 2023. In half-PPR leagues, the former Steeler totaled 9.6 fantasy points per game compared to 10.4 in 2023. He didn't take that big of a step back.

As WR26 in 2023 and WR42 in 2024, there's no doubt his WR31 ADP from 2023 provided much better value than his WR26 ADP from last year. Will Pickens get back to providing good value?

One could still argue Pickens took a step in the right direction in 2024. According to PlayerProfiler, he carried excellent volume with a 26.5% target share (14th), 34.0% red zone target share, 42.4% air yards share (6th), and an average depth of target (aDOT) of 13.6 yards (15th). In 2023, Pickens carried a 21.9% target share, 18.6% red zone target share, 37.8% air yards share, and 13.5 aDOT.

His decline in fantasy production was mostly due to being on an underwhelming offense, for Pittsburgh finished with 21.9 points per game (20th) and 5.1 yards per play (25th) while carrying a 51.7% pass-play rate (28th).

Over the past few seasons, Dallas has sported a much more productive offense than the Steelers. While Pickens' role should be much different on a new team, will the switch return him to being a valuable fantasy asset?

George Pickens' 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook

Plenty of change has surrounded the Cowboys of recent, putting some of their past scoring success in question. When Dak Prescott has played in at least 10 games since 2021, Dallas finished in the top four of points per game (PPG) in all three seasons. Last year, the Cowboys totaled only 20.6 PPG (12th-lowest), but Dak was active for only eight games.

Dallas has finished top 11 in pass-play percentage each of the last two seasons. Meanwhile, the Steelers were among the five lowest marks in both campaigns, suggesting Pickens landed in an ideal spot. Pittsburgh simply didn't have the QB position figured out when Pickens was on the team, and frankly, it's still a question with a 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers. While Prescott is on the receiving end of plenty of criticism, he's still a quality starter with promising fantasy upside.

Without a doubt, Dak will be the best QB to throw to Pickens yet. Sure, the high pass rate could take a small step back with the Cowboys bringing in head coach Brian Schottenheimer and offensive coordinator Klayon Adams. After posting the sixth-lowest rush rate of 2024 paired with hiring run-friendly coaches, Dallas will likely look to be more balanced in 2025. However, the running back committee remains a huge question mark with Javonte Williams, Miles Sanders, and Jaydon Blue as the existing candidates.

Pickens should still see enough targets to provide some value, but joining a receiving corps with CeeDee Lamb as top dog causes obvious concern. Lamb has established himself as one of the league's best, producing at least 1,100 receiving yards in four consecutive seasons. He finished as WR1 while racking up 135 catches for 1,749 receiving yards and 14 total touchdowns in 2023.

I wouldn't expect Pickens to repeat last season's top-15 target share. His ability to win contested targets and find the end zone could be the key to his value. Pickens' ability in the red zone is as clear as day, but Pittsburgh's offenses simply haven't done enough for the trait to provide value.

Thanks to CeeDee lining up alongside Pickens, he should get plenty of one-on-one chances on deep shots and in the end zone. Pickens' 34.0% red zone target share and 13.6 aDOT from a season ago are two strengths to keep in mind. This is likely Pickens' path to glory, and it's a near-perfect fit for what the Cowboys sorely needed.

According to FantasyPros, Pickens has an ADP of 67.0 overall and WR29. That's not far off from his WR26 ADP last season. This alone proves Dallas' offense generates much more promise for Pickens' upside.

Whether Pickens is worth a swing depends on how you view him lining up with Lamb. Will more one-on-one situations mean a big season for Pickens? Will Lamb simply demand too much work for Pickens to be productive?

I tend to fall with the former. This ADP still has room for value, and I remain a big believer in Prescott and Lamb when it pertains to fantasy football. Pickens feels like a perfect third wheel, providing solid fantasy potential from a mid-round pick.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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