3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Monday 7/28/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Jarren Duran to Hit a Home Run (+500)

Jarren Duran has one of the hottest hands in baseball. On Saturday, that meant logging one double and two triples against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Can he finally get one over the fence in tonight's matchup versus Simeon Woods Richardson?

Duran has produced a 15.1% barrel rate, 49.1% fly-ball rate, and .329 ISO across the past 30 days. In that span, he's torching righties for a .353 BA, .373 ISO, .725 SLG, 45.7% fly-ball rate, and a 91.4% medium-to-hard contact rate. While he has just nine home runs to his name this season, Duran's underlying marks suggest he is due for more.

Woods Richardson enters with a 4.14 ERA, 4.23 xERA, 5.02 xFIP, and a meh 19.6% strikeout rate. On the season, he's coughed up a .434 SLG, 49.5% fly-ball rate, and 1.35 jacks per nine innings to left-handed hitters. Mind you, he's benefitted from a 9.6% HR/FB ratio, which is the sixth-lowest in the majors (minimum 70 IP) among hurlers who sacrifice a 45.0% FB% and higher.

Duran may not be your typical home run hitter, but at +500 odds, I like his chances to carry his momentum into Monday. Wilyer Abreu to Hit a Home Run (+400) is worth a look, too.

Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run (+360)

Bryce Harper is having himself a second half following a quiet start to the season.

Harper is generating a 21.4% barrel rate and .514 ISO since the All-Star break, which has led to five dingers in that nine-game span. Across the past 30 days, Harper is belting opponents with a 20.0% barrel rate and .351 ISO.

He'll get the lefty-on-righty matchup opposite Davis Martin tonight, making him a worthwhile pick in the home run market.

Martin enters with a 3.89 ERA that is due to regress in the wrong direction based on a 5.36 expected ERA. He holds just a 15.6% strikeout rate and is primed to get his comeuppance against this boisterous Philadelphia Phillies lineup.

Martin's been lucky against left-handers thanks to a .209 BABIP allowed, but he still cedes 1.21 home runs per nine innings on only a 12.8% K% in the split.

Harper, meanwhile, sports a .247 ISO, .511 SLG, 45.6% fly-ball rate, and a 91.9% medium-to-hard contact rate versus northpaws in 2025. In July, he's belted righties with a .326 BA, .465 ISO, .791 SLG, and 227 wRC+. Our MLB projections forecast Harper to record 0.26 home runs tonight.

Willy Adames to Hit a Home Run (+560)

Willy Adames and the San Francisco Giants draw a tough matchup against Mitch Keller tonight, but I can get behind backing Adames in the home run prop market at +560 odds.

Adames sports a 19.4% barrel rate, 50.0% hard-hit rate, and .302 ISO across the past 30 days. He's up to a .364 ISO in the past two weeks.

Adames held a sorry .204 batting average on June 21st. Since then, he's torching right-handers to the tune of a .313 BA, .554 SLG, and 166 wRC+ on only a 21.1% strikeout rate. As a result, he's hit at least one home run in 20.7% of games in that span, which is more in line with his home run hit rate (18.0%) from a season ago. These +560 odds imply only a 15.1% probability.

Keller (3.53 ERA, 3.81 xERA, 4.04 xFIP) is not a fun foe, but he does provide Adames with his preferred righty-on-righty matchup. Keller has maintained a puny 5.6% HR/FB versus RHH this season -- good for the second-lowest in MLB. Of the 12 hurlers who cede a 7.7% HR/FB or lower in the split, only one gives up higher than a 38.0% FB% and 82.0% medium-to-hard contact rate: Keller. In this regard, Keller could be due to regress, and Adames is my favorite bet to get to him in this one.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.