3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Friday 8/8/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Jackson Merrill to Hit a Home Run (+500)

The San Diego Padres have a lovely home matchup with a struggling Walker Buehler, and the wind is blowing out at 5 MPH at Petco Park. That puts me on Jackson Merrill's homer prop.

Buehler is likely lucky to still be in the rotation. In his first season with the Boston Red Sox, he is putting up career-worst numbers in SIERA (4.98), strikeout rate (16.6%) and swinging-strike rate (7.7%). He's also giving up 1.82 dingers per nine innings overall while left-handed hitters have mauled him to the tune of a .386 wOBA.

Merrill's surface numbers look pretty meh as he's posted a .317 wOBA with just 8 taters a year after recording a .352 wOBA and 24 jacks. But there's plenty of bad luck at play. Merrill's expected wOBA (xwOBA) is .360, and he's at his best when he's at home against right-handers -- with five of his eight home runs coming in that split.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+310)

Clayton Kershaw versus Max Scherzer in a game with a 9.0-run total. I feel old.

It's Kershaw I'm most interested in picking on, and I'm doing so via Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s homer prop.

Kershaw has pitched to a 3.29 ERA this season, so the results have been solid. But when you look under the hood, it's not as pretty. He's got a lowly 15.4% K rate and a 4.59 SIERA. He's had a really tough time at home, too, giving up a .345 wOBA in the split, compared to a .273 wOBA on the road.

This is a good matchup for Vladdy. The Toronto Blue Jays' slugger is having an excellent campaign, producing a .415 xwOBA and 41.5% hard-hit rate. Against southpaws, he owns a .400 wOBA and 43.0% hard-hit rate. He's been scorching hot in August so far, registering a .452 wOBA and three tanks this month, although he benefitted from a trio of Coors games.

The good times can keep rolling once Kershaw leaves as the Los Angeles Dodgers' bullpen is 28th in reliever xFIP (4.62) over the last 30 days.

Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+350)

While Brandon Woodruff has been dealing lately, there are some reasons to back Juan Soto to launch a dinger tonight.

Woodruff is thriving in his return from injury, carving up opponents en route to a 2.22 ERA, 2.10 expected ERA and 35.6% strikeout rate. Those are ace-level numbers. But with that said, Woodruff's swinging-strike rate is only 11.4%, hinting at some impending negative regression in the K department, and he's surrendering a sky-high 58.1% fly-ball rate.

Plus, he's pitched just 28.1 innings this season. Woodruff wasn't this good in the minors during his rehab starts as he amassed just a 20.6% K rate in those outings.

Soto has taken some heat for underperforming a bit in his first year with the New York Mets. It's unwarranted. He's got a huge .441 xwOBA and 43.6% hard-hit rate, the latter of which is actually a career-best number. A career-low .260 BABIP is dragging down his on-field results, but Soto is every bit the otherworldly hitter he's always been.

Of Soto's 26 homers this season, 21 have come against right-handers, and he's put up a .411 wOBA on the road versus RHP.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.