3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Friday 7/25/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Addison Barger to Hit a Home Run (+450)

Keider Montero is set to make his 9th start and 15th total appearance for the Detroit Tigers this season, and he's in danger of losing his spot in the rotation due to his 4.57 SIERA and 4.56 xFIP. Along with Montero ranking in just the 14th percentile in strikeout rate (16.9%) and 44th percentile in barrel rate (8.7%), he's permitting a .404 wOBA, 2.32 HR/9, and 39.2% flyball rate to left-handed hitters (compared to a .287 wOBA, 1.17 HR/9, and 35.7% flyball rate to right-handed hitters).

While the Toronto Blue Jays aren't a team that prioritizes hitting for power, Addison Barger is a left-handed slugger who can do damage versus Montero and the Tigers' bullpen. Against right-handed pitching this year, Barger is sporting a .372 wOBA, 140 wRC+, .262 ISO, and 41.4% flyball rate.

It'll be humid with winds blowing from left to right field at Comerica Park on Friday, giving Barger another edge in this matchup. With Montero failing to pitch six-plus innings in all but two of his appearances this season, it's worth noting that Detroit's relievers have the third-worst HR/9 (1.88) and sixth-worst barrel rate (10.6%) over the last 14 days.

Michael Busch to Hit a Home Run (+310)

Across his first 10 starts for the Chicago White Sox in 2025, Adrian Houser is producing career-bests in ERA (1.89) and WHIP (1.23). However, I don't believe Houser has suddenly become an elite starter out of nowhere, and his SIERA (4.35) and xERA (3.77) suggests he's gotten a bit lucky up to this point.

Houser's luck could begin to run out on Friday versus Michael Busch and the Chicago Cubs on Friday. Aside from Houser coughing up a .345 wOBA and his 2 lone homers to left-handed batters this year, Busch is crushing righties to the tune of a .419 wOBA, 175 wRC+, .283 ISO, and 43.2% flyball rate while he's been moved to the leadoff spot against right-handed pitchers.

Throughout the last 30 days, Busch has tallied the 13th-highest average exit velocity (93.8 MPH) and 16th-best barrel rate (20.0%) in baseball, so he's in fantastic form entering this matchup. Since the start of the 2025 campaign, Busch is logging a .312 ISO or better and 7.7% barrel rate or better versus Houser's four primary pitches against left-handed hitters (sinker, changeup, curveball, and four-seam fastball).

Nick Kurtz to Hit a Home Run (+300)

Nick Kurtz is approaching must-play territory in the home run market whenever he's at +300 odds or longer, as he's destroying baseballs left and right. Across the last 30 days, Kurtz owns the highest average exit velocity (96.7 MPH), sixth-best barrel rate (26.3%), fifth-best hard-hit rate (61.4%), and second-best ISO (.471) during that span.

At the moment, Ryan Gusto is slated to start for the Houston Astros on Friday, and he's residing in the 18th percentile in average exit velocity (90.6 MPH), 32nd percentile in barrel rate (9.5%), 18th percentile in hard-hit rate (44.8%), and 16th percentile in groundball rate (34.9%). Gusto is also permitting a .386 wOBA, 2.12 HR/9, and 45.9% flyball rate to lefties this year, making him a perfect pitcher to target with Kurtz at the plate.

While Kurtz has gone three consecutive games without a homer, 7 of his last 10 batted balls that have been put in play since his last long ball have clocked in at 103-plus MPH off of his bat. Even though the Astros could elect to deploy a left-handed reliever when Gusto exits Friday's matchup, it's worth backing Kurtz at these odds due to his insane .457 wOBA, 196 wRC+, and .373 ISO versus righties.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.