3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Wednesday 6/4/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals

Under 8.5 Runs (-110)

With Matt Boyd and MacKenzie Gore starting, runs should be hard to come by today in D.C.

The Chicago Cubs have been outstanding offensively this season, and they've been elite against lefties, ranking second in wOBA (.345) in the split. I think Gore is up to the task, though, as he's pitched to a sparkling 2.46 SIERA with a 36.2% strikeout rate and 15.8% swinging-strike rate in what's been a breakout 2025 thus far.

Plus, there's a chance Kyle Tucker is out again as he deals with a finger injury. Tucker sitting would leave a big hole in the Cubs' lineup.

As for Boyd versus the Washington Nationals' offense, he should be able to have succees. Washington is just 17th in wOBA (.291) against LHP, and Boyd has been good, putting up a 3.49 SIERA and 24.9% K rate. He's been hot of late, too, recording a 3.03 xFIP across his last six starts.

Chicago and Washington rank 22nd and 28th, respectively, in bullpen xFIP. That's a legit concern, and I considered taking first five innings under 4.5 runs (-120) because of it. But I still prefer the full game under and think the starters can give the bullpens enough room for error.

Philadelphia Phillies at Toronto Blue Jays

Phillies Moneyline (-104)

Tonight's Philadelphia Phillies-Toronto Blue Jays game is being listed as close to a pick'em, but I think the Phillies have the edge in two key areas.

The most important one is on the mound as the pitching matchup pits Mick Abel against Jose Berrios.

Abel has been shredding this year in Triple-A, posting a 28.0% strikeout rate, 13.3% swinging-strike rate and 3.88 xFIP over 57 innings. Of course, it's a big jump from Triple-A to The Show, but Abel looked really dang good in a spot start in May, punching out nine in six shutout innings versus the Pittsburgh Pirates. I think he's legit.

Berrios has been decent this season, pitching to a 4.13 xFIP and 22.2% K rate. But he has a much tougher matchup than Abel does, which brings me to the Phillies' other big advantage -- their offense.

Overall, Philly sits 5th in wOBA (.327) while the Jays are 11th (.319), but the gap is more pronounced versus RHP. Toronto's wOBA against righties drops to .314 (18th) while the Phillies' wOBA in the split is .327 (5th).

With an edge at the plate and a potential breakout starter on the bump, Philly's moneyline is my favorite bet of the day.

Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees

Yankees Under 4.5 Runs (+108)

Tanner Bibee quieted the New York Yankees' bats last night, and Luis Ortiz can follow suit today.

The Cleveland Guardians are renowned for their pitching development, and in their first year with Ortiz, they've helped him make noteworthy improvements as the righty has career-best marks in SIERA (4.05) and K rate (24.8%) through his first 59 1/3 innings this season.

While a Bronx date with the Yanks is obviously a difficult matchup, Ortiz's ground-ball ways should help him keep the ball in the yard. For the year, he's generated a 47.0% ground-ball rate, and that's resulted in him giving up 1.06 homers per nine innings (7 HRs through 11 starts).

He's also lethal versus righties, allowing just 0.61 homers per nine and a 24.4% fly-ball rate in the split so far, giving him a chance to keep Aaron Judge under wraps.

After Ortiz's work is completed, he'll hand the ball to a Cleveland bullpen that is seventh in xFIP (3.79) and sixth in strikeout rate (25.1%).

It's not easy to stomach betting against Judge and company at Yankee Stadium, but I think it's the right play tonight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.