3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Wednesday 5/21/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

New York Mets at Boston Red Sox

Under 8.0 Runs (-118)

Two good pitchers square off tonight at Fenway, and that puts me on the under.

Tylor Megill is getting the ball for the New York Mets. Through his first 43 1/3 innings of the season, Megill sports a 3.63 SIERA and 29.0% strikeout rate. A 10.6% swinging-strike rate hints at some impending negative regression in the strikeout department, but other than that, Megill's numbers check out. He's also given up just three homers and a 22.3% hard-hit rate on the year.

The Boston Red Sox are turning to Garrett Crochet. In his first season in Boston, Crochet is the owner of a 3.20 SIERA, 29.1% K rate and 13.4% swinging-strike rate. While those numbers are a little worse than what he produced in 2024, they're still dang good. Crochet has surrendered two or fewer earned runs in 9 of his 10 starts this campaign.

In addition to the quality starters, both Boston's and New York's bullpen sits in the top 11 in xFIP, and the wind is blowing in at Fenway.

Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies

Over 11.0 Runs (-122)

There could be fireworks tonight at Coors, and I'm expecting the over to hit.

Carson Palmquist is starting for the Colorado Rockies, and it's hard to see how this goes well for him. The lefty will face a Philadelphia Phillies lineup that ranks fourth in wOBA against southpaws (.346) and has 16 total runs through the first two games of this series.

Palmquist has one MLB start to his name, and it wasn't pretty as he was tagged for five earned runs in four innings last week at the Arizona Diamondbacks while generating zero punchouts. As such, Philly is listed at -115 to go over 6.5 runs.

The Rockies' offense can help us out, too, as they take on Taijuan Walker. Since the start of 2024 (118 innings), Walker has struggled to the tune of a 4.96 SIERA, 16.8% K rate and 1.98 homers per nine innings.

It doesn't feel good to back the Colorado offense, but Walker should have a tough time today in Denver.

Los Angeles Angels at Athletics

Jack Kochanowicz Under 17.5 Outs (-110)

Jack Kochanowicz is a pitch-to-contact hurler, which sometimes -- such as his 6 2/3-outing against the Los Angeles Dodgers last week -- helps him go deeper in games. I don't think that'll be the case today at the Athletics.

Kochanowicz has a 13.7% strikeout rate this year. That's actually up from his 9.4% K rate a season ago and has led to him posting a career 4.80 SIERA. It's just hard to survive long-term in the bigs with that low of a strikeout rate as he's super reliant on the BABIP gods.

But as I said earlier, the lack of Ks can help him go deeper in games if he's generating quick outs, something his career 55.3% ground-ball rate does for him if those grounders go to his infielders.

The big issue today may end up being Kochanowicz's struggles versus left-handed hitters. In his career, he's permitted a .357 wOBA in the split, compared to a .296 wOBA to righties. The A's figure to have Lawrence Butler, Nick Kurtz, JJ Bleday and Tyler Soderstrom -- all lefties -- in their lineup.

At this line of 17.5 outs, Kochanowicz needs to complete six frames -- something he's done in just four of nine starts this year. He's been capped at 86 pitches or fewer in six of those nine outings. He should have a tough time lasting six innings today at the Athletics' hitter-friendly temporary home against an offense with several left-handed thumpers.

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Which bets stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.