3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Tuesday 7/29/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Atlanta Braves at Kansas City Royals

Royals Moneyline (-124)

The Kansas City Royals (52-55) will look to get one over the Atlanta Braves (45-60) after dropping the series opener on Monday. I see value in backing Kansas City's moneyline.

K.C. will send Seth Lugo to the bump for the first time since inking him to a two-year, $46-million contract extension. With the trade rumors finally put to bed, Lugo will continue what has been a solid campaign for him.

Lugo enters with a 2.95 ERA. Although his 4.56 expected ERA should scare us to some degree, his 4.07 xFIP and 22.0% strikeout rate aren't too shabby and the Royals have won four of his last five starts.

Atlanta's active roster sports middle-of-the-road marks against RHPs, including a .159 ISO (19th) and .324 wOBA (17th). The offense has been particularly dormant on the road, owning a .298 wOBA (26th) and 90 wRC+ (26th) versus righties in the split. It's no wonder they struggle with a 19-34 record away from Atlanta.

With Lugo and the bullpen (3.79 ERA; 12th) primed to keep things somewhat in check, the Royals figure to generate enough run support against Erick Fedde to take this one to the finish line.

Fedde was traded to the Braves on Sunday in exchange for a player to be named later or cash. It's been tough sledding all season for Fedde, who comes in with a 5.22 ERA, 5.80 expected ERA, 5.27 xFIP, and 5.42 SIERA. He holds a mere 14.1% strikeout rate and has coughed up a whopping 26 ER across his last five outings (17 3/2 IP). Best of luck against a Royals offense that touts a .205 ISO (3rd), .334 wOBA (4th), and 111 wRC+ (6th) across the past 30 days.

Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals

Marlins Under 3.5 Runs (-125)

Sonny Gray has gotten absolutely rocked for 22 hits and 14 ER across his last two starts (8 1/3 IP).

Do we dare call on him to suppress the Miami Marlins on Tuesday?

Gray comes in with a 4.33 ERA thanks to his recent struggles, but his underlying metrics are superb, including a 2.89 xFIP and 3.09 SIERA. His xFIP is good for the sixth-best in MLB. He also generates an elite 26.7% strikeout rate and holds opponents to 1.08 home runs per nine innings despite dealing with an inflamed and unlucky .335 BABIP and 12.5% HR/FB ratio.

All to say he has a decent chance to right the ship tonight, and we don't have to look back too far for an elite performance from him. On June 27th, he tossed a complete-game shutout and allowed just one baserunner with 11 Ks.

Past Gray, the Cardinals have access to a quality bullpen -- one that ranks sixth in ERA (3.03), ninth in xFIP (3.71), and sixth in HR/9 (0.72). Across the past 30 days, St. Louis' bullpen sports a 2.91 ERA and an MLB-best 3.00 SIERA and 3.09 xFIP.

I'm intrigued by the Cards' pitching staff in this one, and the Marlins shouldn't present too many problems. Miami's offense has just a .306 wOBA (22nd) in the past 30 days. They've scored more than four runs just twice in the last nine games and are averaging 3.3 runs per game in that span.

Before his last two disastrous outings, Gray and company were holding opponents to just 3.5 runs per game when tossing at home. I think they'll get back to their ways tonight.

Seattle Mariners at Athletics

First 5 Innings Over 5.5 Runs (-122)

Tonight's Seattle Mariners-Athletics bout shows a slate-high 10.5 over/under. This contest is primed to live up to its billing, and my preferred route to exposure is the over through the first five frames.

Luis Severino and Logan Evans will toe the rubber for their respective teams. They -- along with the hitter-friendly conditions at Sutter Health Park -- are to thank for this total. It's the main reason why I like the offenses to get going early.

I can't imagine that any hurler enjoys pitching at home less than Severino does. He sports an atrocious 1.62 WHIP and 6.68 ERA at the venue. Opponents are averaging 4.33 runs through the first five innings against Severino at Sutter this season. Given the Mariners boast Cal Raleigh and show the fifth-best wRC+ (113) across the past 30 days, there's a world where Seattle clears this total all by themselves.

Luckily, we likely won't need that to happen, as Seattle's Evans has meh ERA indicators, including a 4.64 xFIP, 4.73 SIERA, and 5.51 expected ERA. The A's have taken advantage of their temporary home digs to the tune of a .275 BA (4th), .349 wOBA (4th), and 118 wRC+ (5th) in Sacramento this season. As was the case with Seattle, we can look for the A's to strike early tonight.

Log in to your FanDuel account to see your exclusive Dinger Tuesdays offer for tonight's MLB games! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which bets stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.