3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Monday 7/28/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Arizona Diamondbacks at Detroit Tigers

Under 9.0 (-122)

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Detroit Tigers open a series tonight in the Motor City, and the under catches my eye.

Arizona's Eduardo Rodriguez has a lot to do with that as he's pitched a lot better than his 5.50 ERA would have you believe. The veteran lefty owns a 4.01 SIERA, 23.1% strikeout rate and 10.2% swinging-strike rate. He's held the opposition to two or fewer earned runs in six of his past eight starts, and he's going up against a Tigers offense that is in a mega slump as Detroit has MLB's worst wOBA -- by a mile -- over the last 14 days (.240) along with the highest K rate in that time (28.4%).

Rookie Troy Melton will be making his second start for Detroit, and he posted very promising numbers over 36 1/3 Triple-A frames before getting the call, dominating to the tune of a 37.8% strikeout rate and 15.1% swinging-strike rate. Despite allowing six earned runs in five innings in his MLB debut last week versus the Pittsburgh Pirates, Melton's xFIP for the game was a solid 3.28 as he fanned seven.

Similar to the Detroit offense, Arizona's lineup is in a funk, sitting 24th in wOBA over the last two weeks (.296), and they recently traded slugger Josh Naylor.

Also in the under's favor is that the wind is blowing in today at Comerica at 8 MPH.

Atlanta Braves at Kansas City Royals

Braves -1.5 (-104)

The Atlanta Braves have a massive pitching advantage tonight versus the Kansas City Royals, and that puts me on Atlanta to win by multiple runs.

Atlanta is giving the ball to Spencer Strider. While the right-handed flamethrower isn't back to his pre-injury dominance, he's still been really good, registering a 3.49 SIERA, 29.6% K rate and 15.3% swinging-strike rate this season. He should be able to have a lot of success against a KC offense that checks in 25th in wOBA on the season (.297).

Rich Hill is getting a second turn through the rotation for the Royals. The 45-year-old had quality minor-league numbers this season, but he predictably struggled against the Chicago Cubs in his season debut, pitching to a 5.96 SIERA with one punchout. Facing a lineup with right-handers Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley and Marcell Ozuna will be a tall task.

Atlanta also has the edge when it comes to bullpens. Over the past 30 days, the Braves rank 15th in reliever xFIP (4.15) while Kansas City ranks next to last (4.62).

All in all, the Braves check a lot of boxes in this matchup.

Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals

Marlins Under 3.5 Runs (+116)

Andre Pallante is the probable starter for the St. Louis Cardinals, and I like his chances of quieting the Miami Marlins.

Pallante is a ground-ball specialist as he owns a sky-high 65.1% ground-ball rate for his career. In 2025, he's upped his swinging-strike rate to 10.1% -- well above last year's clip of 8.3% -- and that makes him a pretty dang good hurler as he can now miss bats and limit jacks (0.82 HRs per nine for his career). Pallante is sporting a 3.71 xFIP across his last 10 outings despite three straight underwhelming showings.

Miami's offense has been serviceable on the season, ranking 18th in wOBA (.311), and they're actually sixth in road wOBA (.321). But they've been held to three or fewer runs in four of their past eight road games despite five of those eight contests being playing at hitter-friendly venues in Baltimore and Cincinnati.

Once Pallante is out of the game, he'll turn it over to an elite St. Louis bullpen, one that is fourth in reliever xFIP for the season (3.85) and first in bullpen xFIP in July (3.21).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.