3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Friday 5/2/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates

Padres -1.5 (+116)

The San Diego Padres have a big advantage on the mound tonight, and that puts me on their run line.

San Diego is giving the ball to Dylan Cease, one of the game's top arms. Cease has recorded a 3.59 SIERA and 14.0% swinging-strike rate through his first 29 2/3 innings this season. He's permitted two or fewer earned runs in three straight outings.

The Pittsburgh Pirates, meanwhile, are turning to Mitch Keller, the owner of a 4.38 SIERA, 5.29 expected ERA and 17.0% strikeout rate.

San Diego's advantages don't stop there. Offensively, the Padres are 14th in wOBA (.319) while the Pirates sit 27th (.288). San Diego's bullpen checks in third in xFIP (3.47), and Pittsburgh's bullpen ranks 26th (4.55).

Across the board, the Padres are the better team, and that makes their run line an enticing bet.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves

Under 9.0 Runs (-110)

With the offensive star power in this game, the under is a scary bet -- but I think it's the right play.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto is a big reason why I like the under. The Los Angeles Dodgers' star righty was really good last year (3.14 SIERA) but has taken a big step forward so far in 2025, pitching to a stellar 2.50 SIERA with a 32.6% K rate and 13.0% swinging-strike rate.

The Atlanta Braves' lineup is a difficult matchup for Yamamoto, but the Braves aren't mashing yet this season, sitting just 13th in wOBA (.319).

The other side of this matchup is where the under starts to look dicey as the Dodgers' high-octane offense will take on Grant Holmes.

By any metric, the Dodgers are elite offensively, and this is as tough as matchups get for Holmes. But I think he can have some success as he's a good pitcher, boasting a 3.75 SIERA and 24.1% strikeout rate over 96 1/3 career innings. He's also been lights out at home in his career as he holds opponents to a .253 wOBA and 0.21 homers per nine in the split.

With two good pitchers -- including one of the game's best -- on the bump and a slight wind blowing in, I think we see fewer than nine runs today in Atlanta.

Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers

Cubs Moneyline (-116)

The Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers open up a three-game series tonight, and I like the Cubs' moneyline at -116 odds.

Similar to the Padres-Pirates reasoning above, the Cubs rate out as a better team than the Brewers in a few different areas. I also think they have the starting-pitching edge today, but it's not as lopsided as the Cease-Keller matchup.

Offensively, the Cubbies definitely have the advantage. Chicago ranks second in wOBA (.350) and third in both slugging (.457) and home runs (46). Milwaukee is several notches below that, sitting 16th in wOBA (.309), 23rd in slugging (.368) and 22nd in homers (27).

Pitching-wise, Ben Brown and Quinn Priester are the probable starters.

Priester has thrown 118 2/3 innings in his MLB career, and he's just not very good, struggling to a 4.82 SIERA. Things haven't been any better this season as he holds a 5.28 SIERA with a walk rate (14.1%) that's nearly as high as his K rate (15.3%). The powerful Cubs' lineup can feast in this spot.

Brown has his warts, too -- namely an 11.1% walk rate this season -- but he also misses a lot of bats. He's got a 27.3% strikeout rate and 13.4% swinging-strike rate over 80 2/3 career frames. That's led to him posting a 3.61 SIERA in his brief career.

My main worry with Chicago today is that Brown rarely goes deep into games, completing five innings in only two of his six outings this year. That means we could see plenty of a Cubs bullpen that ranks a lowly 27th in xFIP (4.66).

But the fact that Chicago's offense is in such a great spot eases some of the concern for me, and if Brown can thrive in the early part of the contest, hopefully the Cubs' offense builds a sizable cushion for their bullpen.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.