2025 Preakness Dark Horse Picks

Key Takeaways:

• The Preakness’s field of 9 includes three Kentucky Derby runners (Journalism, Sandman, and American Promise) and 6 newcomers, some of whom have yet to race in a stakes event. Gosger (20-1) has graded-stakes success, tactical speed, and strong stamina influences in his pedigree, making him an intriguing longshot.
• American Promise (15-1) showed promise in the Virginia Derby but struggled in the Kentucky Derby; his speed and Pimlico familiarity could make him a sleeper pick.
• Goal Oriented (6-1) enters the Preakness after winning an allowance race and has demonstrated pace versatility, wet-track ability, and strong jockey experience with Flavien Prat.

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The 2025 Preakness Stakes happens Saturday, May 17, at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland. A field of nine of the best three-year-old colts in the country will go 1 3/16 miles for their share of a $2 million purse as well as a place in horse racing history.

Even though Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty does not press on to the Preakness -- he is slated to return three weeks later, in the Belmont Stakes -- a trio of Kentucky Derby horses are expected to line up in the starting gate at Pimlico. Those include beaten favorite Journalism, the runner-up at Churchill Downs, as well as the second betting choice in the Derby, Sandman, who ran seventh. The third horse coming out of the Kentucky Derby, American Promise, was only 16th at Churchill Downs but has reasons to be an interesting dark horse in the second jewel of the Triple Crown.

Six others, making their first start in a Triple Crown race, are slated to join them. Those include some familiar faces from the Kentucky Derby trail, like Blue Grass (G1) third-place runner and River Thames and UAE Derby (G2) runner-up Heart of Honor. Others are truly new shooters, pointed toward the Preakness all along, like Federico Tesio winner Pay Billy, Hot Springs Stakes winner Clever Again, and Lexington (G2) winner Gosger. One horse in the Preakness has yet to even run in a stakes race before trying for the Black-Eyed Susans: Goal Oriented, who comes straight in from an allowance win on the Kentucky Derby undercard.

Betting the Preakness Stakes, just like any other horse race, involves finding the horses who provide the right balance of betting price and chance to win. These are some of the dark horse candidates who will be at longer odds on the tote board but have good reasons they can outrun their odds on the third Saturday in May. Make sure to visit our Preakness Stakes Best Bets page, as well, for other runners to play in exotics!

These are the most interesting horses outside the top of the market in this year’s Preakness field:

1. Gosger (20-1 ML)

Gosger is one of only three graded-stakes winners in the field by virtue of his victory in the Lexington (G3) at Keeneland. The other two will be shorter prices: Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner Journalism and Arkansas Derby (G1) winner Sandman. However, Gosger will be one of the longest shots in the field -- at 20-1 on the morning line, he is tied with Pay Billy for the longest shot on the board.

Perhaps that long morning-line price has to do with his speed figures, since the Beyer and Brisnet scales suggest he has a lot of improvement to make. However, the gap is significantly closer on the TimeformUS scale -- and no matter what, with only three starts underneath him, Gosger still has a lot of room to move forward.

In terms of pace, Gosger has good tactical speed for jockey Luis Saez to take advantage of. Though he came from a little further off the pace in his sprint debut after hitting the gate, he disputed the early pace in his maiden win and then tracked it and took over in the Lexington. Saez has never ridden Gosger before but should be a good fit for that running style.

The Brendan Walsh trainee also has every right to improve with the distance. He is one of the better-bred runners for the step up to 1 3/16 miles: he is sired by Nyquist, an Uncle Mo son who won the Kentucky Derby, out of the Tapit mare Gloria S. Tapit, of course, is one of the best-proven stamina influences based in the United States. Gloria S. is a half-sister to I’ll Have Another, winner of both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes in 2012; as well as Golden Award, a two-time graded winner at 1 ⅛ miles. Though she never raced, in addition to Gosger she also produced Harvey’s Lil Goil -- a Grade 1 winner at 1 ⅛ miles, and a close third in the 1 3/16-mile Breeder’s Cup Filly and Mare Turf in 2020.

2. American Promise (15-1 ML)

Trainer D. Wayne Lukas has won the Preakness seven times, more than any trainer not named Bob Baffert. And, even though his first win came in 1980, his success isn’t confined to the dusty past: he upset the 2024 Preakness Stakes with Seize the Grey, and he returns to the fray in 2025 with American Promise. And, though extra rest is more of a recent trend, Lukas proved he can still bring a horse back in two weeks to the Preakness, since Seize the Grey came from a win in the Pat Day Mile (G2) on the Derby undercard.

American Promise was surprisingly well fancied by bettors in the Kentucky Derby, bet down to 12-1 off of a 7 ¾-length victory in the ungraded Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs. The Kentucky Derby was not his day, as he raced close to a fast pace, made an early move, and weakened to finish 16th. But, Lukas keeps the faith in Nik Juarez -- a smart move, since Juarez is a mid-Atlantic fixture and he knows Pimlico better than Churchill at this point in his career.

There are some questions: he has yet to prove his class against graded-stakes company, and his form has been hit-or-miss in the wet conditions he is likely to encounter on Preakness day. But, he does have a win in the Oaklawn mud, he has the speed that plays so well so often at Pimlico, and his Virginia Derby was fast enough to suggest he could spring a surprise on his best day.

3. Goal Oriented (6-1 ML)

Bob Baffert has won eight editions of the Preakness, more than any other trainer in history. Though, his usual Preakness contender is a proven stakes horse, one coming in from either the Kentucky Derby or the series of points races. It looked like Baffert would have at least one of those more proven horses in the Preakness with Wood Memorial (G2) winner Rodriguez, but the same foot issue that kept him out of the Run for the Roses.

The story behind Goal Oriented is atypical. He debuted in a sprint at Santa Anita in April, rallying from near the rear and drawing off to win by 3 ¼ lengths. He showed up on the Derby Day card, but not in one of the stakes: he won an allowance on the undercard by just three-quarters of a length. However, there are reasons to think that two-race record is not as modest as it may seem at first blush.

For one, the son of Not This Time has already shown some pace versatility, passing horses on debut and then making most of the running in his allowance return. He is likely to catch wet conditions, something he proved on the Derby undercard that he could handle. And, finally, Flavien Prat returns to the irons. Not only does he have that experience with Goal Oriented, but he is already a Preakness Stakes winner, and no one is riding the biggest races better than Prat right now.

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