Projections
Sign up for the FanDuel Research daily email newsletter!
Horse Racing
Golf
Soccer
WNBA
NASCAR
NCAAF
UFC
NCAAB
Tennis
Boxing
Casino
Canada
Sports Betting 101
TV & Podcasts
NBA
MLB
NFL
NHL
Horse Racing
FanDuel Sportsbook Promos 
Email Sign-Up
Soccer
World Cup 2026 Dark Horse Teams to Win: Best Longshot Odds & Picks to Win The World Cup
Subscribe to our newsletter
🏆
🌍 WORLD CUP 2026 · DARK HORSE ANALYSIS · ROUND OF 32 SET · ALL FANDUEL TOURNAMENT ODDS
FIFA World Cup 2026 · Tournament Winner Futures · Longshot Picks & Bracket Paths
World Cup 2026 Dark Horses: Which Teams Can Win It All?
Norway +3300 · Morocco +4000 · Japan +5000 · Colombia +3500 · Netherlands +1500
⚡ Round of 32 bracket confirmed · France +360 · Argentina +390 · Spain/England +600 favourites · But this World Cup has already produced major upsets
FOX FD June 28 confirmed · Final MetLife Stadium NJ July 19 · Must be 21+
Norway
+3300
Morocco
+4000
Japan
+5000
Colombia
+3500
Netherlands
+1500
⚡ THIS WORLD CUP HAS ALREADY PRODUCED SHOCKS · SA BEAT SOUTH KOREA · DR CONGO BEAT UZBEKISTAN · CAPE VERDE BEAT SAUDI ARABIA · JAPAN BEAT BRAZIL 3-2 IN OCT 2025 · ECUADOR BEAT GERMANY 2-1 · THE 48-TEAM FORMAT MEANS MORE UPSETS · MORE PATHS FOR DARK HORSES
The expanded 48-team World Cup has already seen more upsets than any tournament in recent memory. With the bracket set, five teams offer genuine value at longshot prices — each with a credible tactical case, a realistic bracket path, and at least one precedent for beating the best in the world.
🔎 What Makes a Genuine Dark Horse? The Framework
Not every long-odds team is worth backing. A genuine dark horse needs three things: a specific tactical identity that can disrupt the best teams, a realistic bracket path, and recent evidence against elite opposition. The five teams below meet all three.
For context: France +360, Argentina +390, Spain +600, England +600, Brazil +1200 (all FOX FD June 28). Any team +1500 or longer represents genuine longshot value. The best dark horses are the ones the market has underpriced relative to their actual threat level.
🌍 The 5 Best Dark Horse Picks
⭐ #1 DARK HORSE · +3300 FD · HAALAND + ØDEGAARD · ALL 3 GROUP GAMES 5+ GOALS · RESTED STARTERS vs FRANCE · $10→$340
🇳🇴 Norway · +3300
Haaland · Ødegaard · Sørloth · Group I runners-up · vs Ivory Coast R32 (-190)
+3300
$10→$340
Tactical Case
Norway is built around the most physically dominant striker in the world in Erling Haaland, plus Martin Ødegaard at the peak of his powers after Arsenal's title-winning season. All three group games went over 5 total goals. They attack relentlessly and score in every game. In a tournament, that output is extraordinary.
The Bracket Path
R32 vs Ivory Coast (-190 to advance) is very winnable. Crucially, Norway deliberately rested Haaland, Ødegaard and most starters in the final group game against France (losing 4-1 to a fully-loaded French side). The tactical logic: protect fitness for the knockouts. Full-strength Norway from the R16 onwards is a completely different team.
The Precedent
Norway have beaten the Netherlands, Germany and Sweden in recent European qualifying. Their high-octane system disrupts structured possession teams. At +3300, if Haaland is fully fit and Norway play with the same aggression they showed in the group stage, they are genuinely capable of reaching — and winning — a semi-final.
Path: R32 vs CIV → R16 → QF (potential France) → SF → Final
Norway rested starters vs France deliberately. Full-strength Norway in the knockouts is their ceiling being the final.
Norway +3300 — #1 dark horse. Haaland + Ødegaard fully fit. Rested for knockouts. All 3 games 5+ goals. $10→$340.
💎 #2 DARK HORSE · +4000 FD · 2022 SEMI-FINALISTS · BEAT SPAIN ON PENS · HAKIMI · BEST BRACKET PATH OF ANY DARK HORSE · $10→$410
🇲🇦 Morocco · +4000
Hakimi · En-Nesyri · Ziyech · vs Netherlands R32 (near even) · best bracket draw
+4000
$10→$410
Tactical Case
Morocco's 2022 semi-final run was built on the best defensive structure in that tournament. Four years later, that core is intact and battle-hardened. Hakimi at right-back is one of the most dangerous attacking full-backs in world football. En-Nesyri has developed into a consistent scorer. Morocco's deep compact block has conceded just one goal across their last five competitive matches.
The Bracket Path — Best of Any Dark Horse
Morocco vs Netherlands is nearly even (-188/+152). Beat the Dutch, and Morocco potentially play the winner of today's South Africa vs Canada in the Round of 16 — a very winnable game. A clear path to the semi-finals exists without facing France or Argentina until the final stages. No other dark horse has a bracket this open.
The Precedent
Morocco eliminated Spain, Portugal and Belgium in 2022. They beat Spain on penalties. They beat Portugal who had Ronaldo. The 2026 side is more experienced. At +4000 with a favorable bracket path, the value is exceptional.
Path: R32 vs NED (near even) → R16 vs CAN/SA winner → QF → SF → Final
R16 opponent (Canada or SA today) is the softest possible R16 draw for any dark horse. Path to semi-finals doesn't require beating France or Argentina.
Morocco +4000 — best bracket path. 2022 semi-finalists. Beat Spain, Portugal in knockouts. R16 vs CAN/SA winner. $10→$410.
💎 #3 DARK HORSE · +3500 FD · 28-GAME UNBEATEN RUN · DREW PORTUGAL 0-0 · JAMES RODRÍGUEZ · COPA AMERICA RUNNERS-UP 2024 · $10→$360
🇨🇴 Colombia · +3500
James Rodríguez · Group K runners-up after 0-0 vs Portugal · vs Ghana R32 (-300)
+3500
$10→$360
Tactical Case
Colombia held Portugal to a goalless draw — Ronaldo and all — demonstrating their defensive discipline and tactical maturity. James Rodríguez remains one of the most creative midfielders in South American football, capable of individual moments that win knockout games. Their Copa América runners-up finish (2024) is underappreciated by European-focused bettors.
The Bracket Path
Colombia face Ghana in the R32 as -300 favourites. After that, Belgium or Senegal in R16, both beatable. A potential QF against USA or England. They don't face France or Argentina until the semi-finals at the earliest. Nothing in their potential path is impossible for a team of Colombia's quality.
The Precedent
Colombia won 28 consecutive unbeaten games before losing the 2024 Copa América final to Argentina in extra time on a late Lautaro Martínez goal. The only team that beat them in that entire run? Argentina, in the final, in extra time. This is elite pre-tournament form. At +3500, it is drastically underpriced.
Path: R32 vs Ghana (-300) → R16 vs BEL/SEN → QF vs USA/ENG → SF → Final
Only team to beat Colombia recently: Argentina in the Copa América final in extra time. This squad is genuinely elite, not just a long shot.
Colombia +3500 — most underrated form. 28-game unbeaten run. Drew Portugal 0-0. Winnable path. James Rodríguez. $10→$360.
💎 #4 DARK HORSE · +5000 FD · BEAT BRAZIL 3-2 · BEAT ENGLAND 1-0 · DREW NETHERLANDS · $10→$510
🇯🇵 Japan · +5000
Group F runners-up · beat Brazil 3-2 Oct 2025 · beat England 1-0 March 2026 · vs Brazil R32
+5000
$10→$510
Tactical Case
Japan presses with suffocating intensity in their high block, and when they drop deep they form one of the most disciplined defensive structures in world football. Most starters play in the Bundesliga, Premier League and Serie A. They have beaten Brazil, England and drawn Netherlands in recent competitive matches. This is not a team that just hopes to spring an upset — they are built to beat elite opposition.
R32 vs Brazil — And Why Japan Can Win It
Japan face Brazil in the R32 (-310/+240). Yes, that's a significant hurdle. But Japan beat Brazil 3-2 in October 2025, coming back from 2-0 down at half-time. This specific precedent exists this calendar year. Win Brazil, and Japan's likely next opponent is Germany or Paraguay — and Japan have beaten Germany at the last two World Cups.
The Precedent
Japan beat Germany and Spain in the 2022 group stage. In October 2025, they beat Brazil 3-2. In March 2026, they beat England 1-0. These are not fluky wins. At +5000, their proven ability to beat the top teams in the world is drastically underpriced.
Path: R32 vs Brazil (beat them 3-2 Oct 2025) → R16 vs GER/PRY → QF → SF → Final
Japan already beat Brazil this year. They've beaten Germany at the last two World Cups. Their ceiling is not just winning one game.
Japan +5000 — highest ceiling longshot. Beat Brazil 3-2 Oct 2025. Beat England 1-0 March 2026. $10→$510.
💎 #5 · +1500 FD · BRACKET VALUE PICK · ALL 3 GAMES 4+ GOALS · BROBBEY · GAKPO · SOFTEST POTENTIAL R16 DRAW OF ANY TOP TEAM · $10→$160
🇳🇱 Netherlands · +1500
Brobbey · Gakpo · Dumfries · Group F winners · vs Morocco R32 · potential CAN/SA R16
+1500
$10→$160
Tactical Case
Brian Brobbey has been in devastating form. Cody Gakpo creates goals from left midfield. Denzel Dumfries bombing forward from right back is one of the most dangerous attacking patterns in the tournament. All three group games went over 4 goals. They don't just beat teams — they overwhelm them with pace and directness.
Why +1500 Is Still Value — The Bracket
If Netherlands beat Morocco, their potential R16 opponent is the winner of today's South Africa vs Canada — the softest Round of 16 draw any top-12 team could possibly have. A QF against Norway or Ivory Coast follows. Netherlands could be in the semi-finals having beaten only Morocco and then (Canada, SA, Norway or CIV) as obstacles. That is extraordinary value at +1500.
Path: R32 vs MAR (near even) → R16 vs CAN/SA winner → QF vs NOR/CIV → SF → Final
Netherlands' potential R16 opponent (Canada or SA) is the softest R16 draw of any top contender. They could be in the semis without facing France or Argentina.
Netherlands +1500 — bracket value. All 3 group games 4+ goals. Softest potential R16 draw. Brobbey, Gakpo, Dumfries. $10→$160.
📋 Dark Horse Power Rankings · All FanDuel Tournament Winner Odds
🇳🇴 Norway +3300 — #1 pick · Haaland fully fit · rested for knockouts · $10→$340
Best upside. R32 vs CIV (-190). Deliberately managed group stage.
🇲🇦 Morocco +4000 — 2022 semi-finalists · best bracket · vs NED (near even) → R16 vs CAN/SA · $10→$410
Best bracket draw of any dark horse. Already beaten Spain, Portugal, Belgium in knockouts.
🇨🇴 Colombia +3500 — 28-game unbeaten run · drew Portugal 0-0 · $10→$360
Only team to beat them: Argentina in Copa América final in extra time.
🇯🇵 Japan +5000 — beat Brazil 3-2 · beat England 1-0 · built to beat elite opposition · $10→$510
Highest ceiling longshot. Best recent results vs elite teams of any +3000+ team.
🇳🇱 Netherlands +1500 — all 3 games 4+ goals · softest potential R16 of any contender · $10→$160
Bracket opens dramatically if they beat Morocco. Could reach semis without facing France or Argentina.
Honourable Mentions
Belgium +4500: De Bruyne, Trossard, Lukaku still a formidable attacking unit. R32 vs Senegal has upset potential. Bracket opens significantly if they advance.
Mexico +4500: Won Group A with 9 points, conceded zero goals all group stage. Home soil advantage (Estadio Azteca vs Ecuador in R32). El Tri are playing with the weight of a nation. Alvarez, Lozano, Vega.
USA +3500: Co-hosts on home soil. Pulisic healthy. Six first-half goals in the group stage, tied with Brazil for most. R32 vs Bosnia at -800. The crowd factor in knockout football on home soil is very real.
FanDuel Sportsbook · World Cup 2026 · Tournament Winner Futures · All Odds Available Now
Bet World Cup 2026 Dark Horses on FanDuel
Norway +3300 · Morocco +4000 · Japan +5000 · Colombia +3500 · Netherlands +1500
All tournament winner odds FanDuel Sportsbook as of June 28 2026 via FOX Sports FD confirmed · France +360 / Argentina +390 / Spain +600 / England +600 / Brazil +1200 / Portugal +1300 / Germany +1500 / Netherlands +1500 / Norway +3300 / USA +3500 / Colombia +3500 / Morocco +4000 / Belgium +4500 / Mexico +4500 / Japan +5000 · Round of 32 bracket set · Final MetLife Stadium East Rutherford NJ July 19 · Must be 21+ · Gambling Problem? 1-800-GAMBLER
New to FanDuel Sportsbook? Bet $5 and get $50 for 7 days. Get $350 in Bonus Bets guaranteed when you bet $5 every day for 7 days. See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today's other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.
Which World Cup bets stand out to you? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's World Cup odds to see the full menu of options.
Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
Subscribe to our newsletter
Want more stories like this?
Sign up to our newsletter to receive the latest news.
