WNBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Monday 5/20/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
WNBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target for Monday 5/20/24

The WNBA is back, and fans and bettors alike can get into the action on FanDuel Sportsbook.

The W's 40-game season offers a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. While there's a lot to sift through, advanced stats from the WNBA can help us find an edge in the betting market.

Let's dive into the WNBA odds on FanDuel Sportsbook and find today's best bets.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

WNBA Best Bets

Connecticut Sun at Indiana Fever

1st Half Spread/Total Parlay: Sun -2.5 / Under 82.5 (+280)

The Indiana Fever (0-3) will host the Connecticut Sun (2-0) for a rematch of last week's season opener, and it seems the market isn't giving the Sun enough love.

Following a third-place finish in last year's standings, Connecticut looks primed to share similar success this time around. In 2023, they ranked second in defensive rating, third in net rating, and gave up the fewest points per game.

Through two games in this campaign, they fare in the top two of offensive rating, defensive rating, and average point differential.

Caitlin Clark and Indiana, meanwhile, have yet to find themself in the win column. They come into this one ranked last on both offense and defense after a bottom-two finish in defensive rating last season. Indiana has entered the half down by at least 10 points -- and an average of 15.7 points -- in each of their three games.

With this in mind, I’m interested in targeting the Sun to cover a modest 2.5-point first-half spread in tandem with the under.

Led by All-Stars DeWanna Bonner and Alyssa Thomas, the Sun outmatch the Fever in just about every regard. In last week's battle, they went into the break up by 10 points, eventually extending to a 21-point victory. All that and they hardly had to outshoot Indiana, who shot 48.0% from the field and 40.0% from downtown while the Sun managed a 48.5% FG% and 42.9% 3P%.

Both of these teams were in the bottom three of pace last season while the Sun come into tonight playing at a league-low pace and ceding the fewest points per game. Look for them to control a slow and steady pace against an Indiana team that hasn’t quite figured out their offensive rotations in the outset.

Seattle Storm at New York Liberty

Jewell Loyd Over 22.5 Points (-108)

The Seattle Storm (1-2) will visit the New York Liberty (3-0) this evening, and I’d expect last season’s scoring leader to have a busy night.

Jewell Loyd averaged a league-leading 24.7 points per game in 2023. She eclipsed 23.5 points in 63.2% of contests (24 out of 38 games) while these -108 odds imply only a 51.9% probability.

Loyd scored 24 points in yesterday’s Seattle victory, but positive regression should still be imminent. Through three games, Loyd has struggled with an abysmal 22.0% FG% and 20.0% 3P%. As a career 40.6% FG% and 35.7% 3P% shooter, Loyd has no business shooting the ball at such a low clip.

The Liberty and Storm played at the fourth and fifth-fastest pace, respectively, last season, leaving tonight’s over/under set at an imposing 168.5 points.

Given that Loyd is averaging 19.7 field goal attempts (FGA) after shooting a whopping 20.3 FGA per game last season, it’s clear that we are targeting someone with a hefty shot volume. She’s also taken a whopping 25 free-throw attempts across her last two games.

Nneka Ogwumike (22.0 points per game) is questionable for the Storm after sitting out Sunday’s game due to an injury. Loyd could take on an even bigger brunt of Seattle’s scoring duties should Ogwumike sit this one out.

Jonquel Jones To Record A Double-Double (-105)

The Liberty's starting center is off to a torrid start. Jonquel Jones is averaging 17.7 points and 10.0 rebounds per game, securing a double-double in two out of three contests thus far.

When Jones arrived in New York in 2023, her role was a bit more muted when playing alongside the reigning MVP, Breanna Stewart. But, dating back to last year’s All-Star break, the two starting bigs have managed to combine as one of the league’s most lethal frontcourts.

Since the 2023 All-Star break, Jones has recorded a double-double in 58.3% of games (including the postseason). If we only account for games where Jones played more than 25 minutes, she notched a double-double in 67.7% of games. These -105 odds, meanwhile, suggest just a 51.2% probability.

Last season, the Storm let up the second-most points and the second-most rebounds to centers per game. They’ve continued that trend into 2024, surrendering the third-most points and rebounds to this position.

Jones could end up as a perennial double-double candidate this season, so I’m keen on backing these friendly odds amid a cushy matchup.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.