WNBA Betting Picks and Player Props for Liberty at Fever (5/16/24)

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33

The WNBA is back, and fans and bettors alike can get into the action on FanDuel Sportsbook.

The W's 40-game season offers a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. While there's a lot to sift through, advanced stats from the WNBA can help us find an edge in the betting market.

Let's dive into the WNBA odds on FanDuel Sportsbook and find today's best bets.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

WNBA Best Bets

New York Liberty at Indiana Fever

Over 168.5 Points (-114)

Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever will play their home opener against the New York Liberty, last season's WNBA runner-ups.

A sold-out crowd at Gainbridge Fieldhouse is sure to make for an exciting game environment, and I'd expect the game total to reflect just that.

The Liberty, led by Breanna Stewart (2023 MVP), Jonquel Jones (2021 MVP), and 2023 All-Stars Sabrina Ionescu and Courtney Vandersloot, have a roster that is chock-full of offensive talent.

Last season, New York averaged 89.2 points per game (second-most) and owned the league’s second-best offensive rating.

Ionescu (3.6 three-point makes [3PM] per game; most in WNBA) and Stewart (2.1 3PM; 12th-most) helped this team drain the most three-pointers -- by a wide margin -- while Betnijah Laney-Hamilton offered plenty of supporting help with a 39.2% three-point percentage (9th-best).

These stars should have their way against an Indiana team that sported the second-worst defensive rating last year -- and the arrival of Clark won’t do that rating any favors.

The Fever surrendered the most points per game and the second-most 3PM game in 2023 and have brought those trends into the new year, allowing the Connecticut Sun to drop 92 points on their heads in Tuesday’s season opener.

I’d expect a fast-paced and star-studded New York team to keep up their end of the scoring bargain, and the Fever could, too.

Despite a 13-27 record that eventually led to them drafting Clark with the first overall pick, Indiana still managed to finish last season with the league’s fifth-best offensive rating.

Guided by 2023 Rookie of the Year Aliyah Boston, the Fever scored the fourth-most paint points and will now get to go at the team that ceded the third-most paint points per game last season.

But perhaps most intriguing is New York’s so-so perimeter defense. Neither Ionescu nor Vandersloot have the size and defensive prowess to totally lock up Clark from long range. They gave up a whopping 32 three-point attempts in their season opener and should serve as a solid opponent for Indiana to work out its offensive kinks against.

Last night, the over/under for this game was listed at 172.5 points. Now that we’re getting the over at a much friendlier number, I think it’s worth backing.

Caitlin Clark Over 20.5 Points (-120)

Caitlin Clark’s “Welcome to the League” was a sour one.

She made history by collecting an eye-popping 10 turnovers, the most giveaways for a W player in their league debut.

Clark kept up that at-times-questionable shot selection from her Iowa days, shooting 33.3% off 15 attempts. But even still, she totaled 20 points in 32 minutes on Tuesday.

If Clark’s shot volume is capacious enough to score 20 even amid a poor shooting night against a rock-solid Connecticut defense, then it’s easy to like her chances to score one more point this time around in an easier matchup.

Connecticut's perimeter defense is not for the faint of heart. Last season, they let up the second-fewest three-point tries, fewest points per game, and owned the league’s second-best defensive rating. They also forced opponents to shoot threes at a league-low clip, so it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out why Clark struggled with her shot in the opener.

A matchup against the Liberty should provide greener pastures. While New York’s trip to last year’s Finals was centered around a solid enough defense, they still ranked sixth (out of 12 teams) in three-point attempts allowed per game, and as mentioned, they let up 32 tries from deep on Tuesday.

I’m interested in Clark’s overall points prop given her ability to get to the foul line. With that being said, Jones and Stewart will be tough foes in the interior, so I’d expect Clark to take a majority of her looks from outside.

Clark’s 11 three-point attempts (out of 15 overall shots) in Indiana’s season opener undermined her initial intentions to become a three-level scorer, and there should be some growing pains now that she’s entered professional play. This matchup favors three-point shooting, so look for Clark to put on a show from downtown in Indiana’s home opener.

With this being the case, I’d consider targeting Caitlin Clark 5+ Made Threes (+156), too.

Breanna Stewart to Record 10+ Rebounds (+142)

Last season’s MVP averaged 9.3 rebounds per game and grabbed 10 or more boards in 50.0% of contests, so I think these +142 odds -- which imply just a 41.3% probability -- are appealing.

Stewart also recorded 10-plus rebounds in 18 out of 32 games (56.3% of contests) against teams that ranked outside the top two of fewest boards allowed to forwards per game.

Last season, the Fever gave up the fourth-fewest rebounds per night to forwards, though it’s notable to consider they were also playing at the second-slowest pace (94.83) in the league.

We saw Indiana pick up the pace (99.0) in their first game with Clark despite going up against a slow and steady Connecticut squad (third-slowest pace in 2023), so I’d expect tonight’s game to feature plenty of possessions, which favors ample rebound chances.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.