MLB

Will the Astros Get to 94 Wins in 2024?

Aidan McGrath
Aidan McGrath@ffaidanmcgrath
Will the Astros Get to 94 Wins in 2024?

A year ago, the Houston Astros continued their run of strong performances, winning a close race for the AL West title on the back of their 90-72 record. Those 90 wins were their fewest since 2016 (excluding 2020), marking just the second time in six seasons the team finished under 100 wins.

With Houston boasting such a strong track record of success, what is the Astros' win total set at for 2024, per the MLB win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook?

The Houston Astros' win total is listed at 93.5 wins.

Let's dig into what we can expect from Houston this year and which side of the win total should interest you.

All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published. nERD via numberFire. Projections via FanGraphs.

Houston Astros Win Total Odds

Houston Astros Over/Under 93.5 Wins

  • Over: +100
  • Under: -122

Why the Houston Astros Could Win Over 93.5 Games (+100)

The Astros will be returning most of their roster from last year's successful campaign. Stars like Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker will be providing plenty of firepower for Houston's offense again in 2024 while the team should be upgrading their production at catcher by transitioning Yainer Diaz to a starting role.

According to FanGraphs' 2024 projections, the Astros are one of just three teams projected to average over 5.0 runs per ball game -- only the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers are projected for more runs. That means the Astros are expected to put together the best offense in the American League.

They're even the outright favorite in the AL, listed at +380 odds to win the American League. With the second-place New York Yankees (+460) looking at a lengthy, concerning absence for ace pitcher Gerrit Cole, the Astros' odds could get even stronger.

If their offense didn't look strong enough to make the over seem like a solid possibility, consider that they'll be providing run support for one of the best pitching crews in the league. Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier are ready for the start of the season, and veteran arms such as Justin Verlander (shoulder) and Lance McCullers (forearm) are expected back this summer. Up-and-comers Hunter Brown and J.P. France showed plenty of promise in their 2023 rookie seasons. The team even added star closer Josh Hader to the mix, supplementing Ryan Pressly's steady arm in the bullpen.

numberFire's projections for 2024 are super bullish on Houston and have the Astros finishing with a 104-58 record -- well above this 93.5-win line -- and give them a 10.6% chance of winning the whole thing. If you like their chances of winning another World Series title, you can find them at +700 odds to win the World Series via FanDuel Sportsbook's World Series odds.

Why the Houston Astros Could Win Under 93.5 Games (-122)

Betting the over for Houston's win total is basically betting on the premise of "what if the good baseball team stays good?" But how likely is it for them to finish under that 93.5-win mark?

As their -122 odds to hit the under imply, there are some reasons for concern.

The 2023 Astros had the fourth-oldest offense in baseball -- their batters were, on average, 28.8 years of age. They also had the fewest unique batters make plate appearances for them during the season, illustrating how their offense stayed pretty healthy all year long.

Altuve started 2023 on the IL, and Alvarez missed a healthy chunk of July. Other than that, their offense was supremely stable in 2023. If they suffer from worse injury luck in 2024, they could have a tough time reaching 94 wins on the season.

On the same note, no team needed to use fewer pitchers than Houston did (24) a season ago. McCullers and Verlander are already slated to miss time to open the season, which could make it difficult for the team to repeat that feat in 2024.

Their lack of young talent in the minors could amplify a negative situation if the Astros' stud starters do miss any time. MLB.com's Top 100 Prospects rankings feature exactly zero Houston prospects. They don't seem to have much of a safety net compared to some of the other top teams, and the lack of top-shelf prospects also hurts Houston when it comes to possible trade-deadline moves.

Furthermore, the American League is looking tough this season. While the Dodgers and Braves -- representing the National League -- are expected to be the top teams in baseball, nine of numberFire's 3rd- through 11th-ranked teams hail from the AL. Facing down that level of competition could make it tough for the Astros to meet even last year's win total of 90, let alone their 93.5-win line for 2024.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.