Who is favored to score in the World Cup final, Messi or Oyarzabal?

Lionel Messi is the narrow favorite on FanDuel's anytime goalscorer market at +150, just ahead of Mikel Oyarzabal at +165. The two are priced closer together than any other goalscorer pairing in the match.

Is Messi still in contention for the World Cup Golden Boot?

Yes. Lionel Messi leads the tournament with 8 goals heading into the final, and a goal against Spain would extend that lead with no games left for any rival to catch up.

What does a +150 anytime goalscorer price mean in implied probability?

A +150 price implies roughly a 40% chance of that outcome before accounting for the sportsbook's built-in margin, making it the shortest, most heavily backed price on this market.

Soccer

Who Scores in the World Cup Final? Messi vs Oyarzabal Betting Picks & Prediction

Chris Beck

16h

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Who Scores in the World Cup Final? Messi vs Oyarzabal Betting Picks & Prediction

World Cup Final · MetLife Stadium · Today, 3PM ET

Two Men, One Golden Boot: The Final's Scoring Race

Messi needs one more goal to put the Golden Boot out of reach. Oyarzabal is the one man in his way. Here's how the betting market sees it.

Every goalscorer market has a favorite. This one has something more specific: a genuine individual stake riding alongside the team result. Lionel Messi arrives at the final with 8 tournament goals, the outright Golden Boot lead, and no rival left with a game to catch him. If he scores today, the race is over before the trophy is even lifted. Standing most directly in his way, statistically, isn't a teammate shielding him — it's Spain's Mikel Oyarzabal, priced almost identically to score for the opposing side.

The Board, Visualized

Converting FanDuel's anytime goalscorer prices into implied probability makes the gap — or lack of one — easier to see at a glance:

What jumps out isn't the favorite — it's the gap, or lack of one. Messi and Oyarzabal sit within two points of implied probability of each other, closer than any other pairing on this board. Everyone else, including Argentina's own front two, sits in a second tier a full 10+ points back.

The Case for Each

Messi — the individual weight of a career

Eight goals is already a Golden Boot lead nobody can now catch mathematically — but "leading" and "locking it up" aren't the same thing until the trophy's handed out, and there's a version of this tournament's ending that people will tell for decades if he adds one more today, in what's very likely his final World Cup appearance. That's not betting analysis, but it's part of why the market treats him as a threat regardless of what Spain's defense has done to everyone else this summer.

Oyarzabal — the sharper end of a blunt-looking attack

Spain's build-up is famous for patience over directness, which is exactly why Oyarzabal's finishing matters so much — someone has to convert the chances that patience eventually creates. He's the only Spain attacker priced inside even money-adjacent range, meaningfully ahead of Yamal, Ferran Torres and everyone else in white.

Full Reference Board

Player Odds

Lionel Messi (ARG)+150

Mikel Oyarzabal (ESP)+165

Lamine Yamal (ESP)+240

Ferran Torres (ESP)+260

Lautaro Martínez (ARG)+270

Julián Álvarez (ARG)+270

Nico Williams (ESP)+320

Mikel Merino (ESP)+370

Full board, including longer-priced defenders, available at the FanDuel link below.

Our Betting Picks

1. Lionel Messi, anytime goalscorer (+150). The board favorite by a hair, and the individual stakes only add to it — he's not just chasing a goal, he's chasing history's clearest word on how this chapter ends.

2. Mikel Oyarzabal, anytime goalscorer (+165). Essentially a coin flip against Messi on this market — if you want exposure to Spain's attack specifically, this is the cleanest way to get it.

3. Mikel Merino, anytime goalscorer (+370). Longer odds, but he's scored the decisive late goal in two straight knockout rounds off the bench. If Spain needs a sub to break a deadlock, he's the proven name.

This market covers 90 minutes plus stoppage time only — extra time and penalties don't count toward these bets, and own goals don't count either. Confirm both starting lineups closer to kickoff before locking anything in.

FanDuel Sportsbook · Goalscorer Market · World Cup Final

See Live Goalscorer Odds →

Odds shown via FanDuel Sportsbook, subject to change before kickoff. Anytime goalscorer covers 90 minutes plus stoppage time only — extra time, penalty shootouts and own goals do not count. Messi +150 · Oyarzabal +165 · Yamal +240 · Ferran Torres +260 · Lautaro Martínez +270 · Julián Álvarez +270 · Nico Williams +320 · Mikel Merino +370. Kickoff today, 3:00 PM ET, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ, broadcast on FOX and Telemundo. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. Must be 21 or older to wager.

Who scores in the World Cup Final today? Predictions, picks and more. Get up to $1,000 in Bet Reset Tokens when you bet $5 daily for the next 5 days. You'll receive $200 in Bet Resets every day you qualify! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today's other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which World Cup bets stand out to you? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's World Cup odds to see the full menu of options.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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