Balogun is the consensus top pick among experts who have specifically broken down this goalscorer market. RotoWire named him their top anytime scorer best bet, noting "Balogun and Reyna scored against Paraguay in a 2-1 friendly victory in November." CBS Sports' top goalscorer expert echoes this directly: "I'm expecting the Monaco man to open his account in Team USA's opener."

Racing Post confirms he is "the expected USA line leader against Paraguay", noting his 13 Ligue 1 goals this season and that "his goalscoring instincts could be key to getting the USA's World Cup challenge off to the perfect start." FanDuel Research's own pre-tournament analysis backed him over Pulisic, writing that he "will likely spend the vast majority of his time operating centrally in prime goal-scoring position" and "may be in store for a breakout summer."

At +215, he's tied with Pulisic as the joint-shortest price — but as the starting center-forward, every USA goal attempt in the final third flows through him. His role is simpler and more direct than Pulisic's: be in the right place in the box and finish. CBS Sports analyst Thomas put it best: "When he's on, he's a rocket ship."

Pulisic's case is built on motivation, versatility, and dead-ball duties. He needs just one goal to tie Eric Wynalda for fourth on the USA's all-time scoring list — a personal milestone that will be on his mind throughout. According to the latest 2026 World Cup odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, Pulisic is +210 to score against Paraguay. Pulisic is +390 to record an assist and +290 to record 2+ shots on target.

JuveFc.com specifically backs him: "Pulisic enters this tournament as the United States' leading attacking reference with 33 goals in 86 caps and is the focal point of Pochettino's attacking system." As free kick taker and penalty taker, he has scoring routes that go beyond open play — any foul in the box goes directly to him.

Tillman is the overlooked value play in this market. Expected to start as one of two attacking midfielders in Pochettino's 3-4-2-1, he operates in exactly the space a deep Paraguay block leaves exposed — arriving late from midfield into the second-wave areas where defensive organisation breaks down.

Covers.com specifically names "Christian Pulisic, Malik Tillman, and Folarin Balogun" as the trio that "will create chaos inside the Paraguayan box with their rotations." CBS Sports also highlighted Tillman's breakout at Bayer Leverkusen this season. At +380, the market treats him as a distant third option — but for a player starting between the USA's two headline scorers against a deep block, nearly 4/1 is where the value lives.

RotoWire top pick. CBS Sports expert top pick. FanDuel Research's own write-up. Racing Post "expected USA line leader." Scored vs Paraguay November 2025. Starting center-forward whose entire role is to finish.

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32% standalone goal probability per CBS Sports supercomputer. Add his assist upside as USA's dead-ball deliverer and the value at +120 is clear. Bet365's specific recommendation. Better value than the +215 anytime scorer for a player whose full output is goal-plus-assist.

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Starts between Pulisic and Balogun in the 3-4-2-1. Covers.com names the Pulisic-Tillman-Balogun trio specifically. Late-arriving midfield runner into the box — exactly how goals get scored against deep-sitting defenses. Nearly 4/1 for a starting player in the attacking unit.

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10 international goals, 76 caps. Racing Post names him as Paraguay's attack focal point with Enciso out. At +500, only 17% implied probability for a confirmed starter who is Paraguay's single best attacking weapon. If Paraguay score, it likely goes through him.

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