UFC Freedom 250 at the White House: Predictions, Picks and Best Bets for Today

UFC Predictions and Picks in Summary

• Ilia Topuria to Win Inside the Distance
• Sean O'Malley to Win By KO/TKO
• Steve Garcia Moneyline

UFC Freedom 250 is one of the most anticipated events in MMA history, featuring a stacked lineup headlined by a lightweight title unification bout between Ilia Topuria and Justin Gaethje.

Which bets stand out via FanDuel Sportsbook's UFC odds? Let's dive in and get you ready for today's historic event.

All odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook's UFC betting odds -- which feature UFC Freedom 250 odds for every fight -- and they may change after this article is published.

White House UFC Predictions: Odds, Picks and Best Bets

Ilia Topuria (-560) vs. Justin Gaethje (+370)

Best Bet: Topuria to Win Inside the Distance

Topuria enters the main event as a sizeable favorite against Gaethje, and for good reason. The undefeated champion has emerged as arguably the most complete fighter in the sport, combining elite boxing, devastating power, and high-level grappling. Most sportsbooks have installed Topuria as a heavy favorite in the -500 range.

Gaethje remains one of the toughest and most dangerous fighters in MMA, but his aggressive style often creates openings for precise counterstrikers. That's a dangerous recipe against Topuria, who has produced highlight-reel finishes against elite competition throughout his title run.

Gaethje's durability and experience make him live for an upset, but Topuria's speed, accuracy, and finishing ability should eventually break through. Rather than laying the steep moneyline price, backing Topuria to win inside the distance provides much better value.

Sean O'Malley (-460) vs. Aiemann Zahabi (+320)

O'Malley to Win By KO/TKO

O'Malley returns in a favorable stylistic matchup against Zahabi. While Zahabi has put together an impressive winning streak, this represents a significant step up in competition. O'Malley enters as a substantial favorite and owns major advantages in reach, striking volume, and finishing ability.

The former bantamweight champion thrives against opponents willing to stand and trade at range, and Zahabi's defensive tendencies could allow O'Malley to pile up damage over the course of three rounds. O'Malley's precision striking remains among the best in the division, and he has consistently demonstrated the ability to find fight-ending shots when opponents begin to slow.

Zahabi is durable enough to survive early, but O'Malley's accuracy and output should eventually create an opening. The knockout prop offers significantly more upside than the moneyline.

Diego Lopes (-154) vs. Steve Garcia (+120)

Garcia Moneyline

One of my favorite underdog bets on the UFC Freedom 250 card is Steve Garcia to defeat Diego Lopes.

At first glance, this matchup looks like a difficult assignment for Garcia. Lopes is a former title challenger and one of the most dangerous finishers in the featherweight division. However, the betting market may be giving Garcia too little credit for the momentum and skill set he brings into this fight.

Garcia enters on a seven-fight winning streak and has established himself as one of the most aggressive offensive fighters at 145 pounds. During that run, he has showcased legitimate knockout power, finishing six of those seven victories and pushing a pace that few featherweights can match.

Stylistically, Garcia has some advantages that could create problems for Lopes. He owns a three-inch reach edge, lands significantly more strikes per minute, and absorbs less damage than Lopes. Garcia averages 5.39 significant strikes landed per minute compared to 3.83 for Lopes, while also carrying a strong defensive striking profile.

There's also a question surrounding Lopes' recent form. He is coming off consecutive losses to Alexander Volkanovski, and some analysts noted that he appeared to fade badly as those fights progressed. Meanwhile, Garcia continues to look sharper with every appearance and appears to be peaking at the right time.

The biggest concern for Garcia backers is Lopes' ability to turn fights into chaotic brawls or opportunistic grappling exchanges. But if Garcia can keep the fight at his preferred range, utilize his length, and force Lopes into extended striking exchanges, he has a very real chance to pull off the upset.

With Garcia available around +135 to +150 at several sportsbooks, the line implies he wins this fight less than 43% of the time. Given his current form, knockout power, and statistical advantages, I believe his true chances are higher than that.

UFC Betting FAQ

What is a moneyline bet in UFC?
A moneyline bet is a wager on which fighter will win the bout, regardless of method or round.

What does "win by KO/TKO" mean?
This prop bet requires your fighter to win via knockout or technical knockout. A submission or decision victory would not cash the wager.

How are UFC fights scored if they go the distance?
Three judges score each round using the 10-point must system. The fighter with the higher total score after all scheduled rounds wins by decision.

What factors should bettors consider before placing a UFC wager?
Recent form, striking and grappling matchups, cardio, reach advantages, injury history, and strength of competition are all important factors when evaluating a fight.

Get two 50% Profit Boost Tokens to use on ANY wagers for any UFC Freedom 250 Fights taking place on June 14th, 2026! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today's other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for the latest UFC odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to see the UFC betting odds for all upcoming fights.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.