UFC 300: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. Regardless of your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout.

Without further delay, let's break down the 13 fights at UFC 300: Pereira vs Hill, taking place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday.

Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Cody Garbrandt

Men's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

Why do I call this the best MMA card ever assembled? Deiveson Figueiredo and Cody Garbrandt have been champions within the last eight years and kick the card off in a spot usually reserved for low-level fighters.

Both are in a feeling-out process of this new phases of their career, though. "Deus Da Guerra" Figueiredo is 1-0 since moving to 135 pounds, collecting a win over a ranked Rob Font late last year. Figgy always had a brutal cut to 125 pounds, so at 36, it's good to see him fighting successfully at a healthier weight. There wasn't really any doubt Figueiredo's athleticism and power, showing through a 1.96% knockdown rate and 1.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes, would translate even moving up in weight.

Really, the question was length, yet he'll have three inches of it on Garbrandt. Garbrandt will look to take advantage of his inconsistent striking (51%) and takedown (58%) defense, though.

"No Love" is a former champ in this division, but that was in an entirely different era. He's been knocked out four times in his last eight fights, losing his cool in moments with striking accuracy (40%) that leaves him vulnerable to counter shots. Garbrandt has defied logic to compile a -0.85 striking success rate (SSR) despite an elite striking defense (60%).

His new wrestling wrinkle helps combat that, though. Garbrandt is up to 1.10 takedowns per 15 minutes on modest efficiency (34%) while yet to offer his first UFC submission attempt.

Cody also fought Rob Font in 2021, totaling a -113 striking differential compared to Figgy's -1 mark (with four takedowns). That explains this line sitting as it does. I'd be concerned for Garbrandt's submission defense if he chose to wrestle, too.

Garbrandt has a 1-5 record against fighters that have been ranked since the COVID break; this would be a stunning place for that trend to reverse course.

Betting Verdict

• I'm overruling my model a bit in this spot. Figueiredo's setbacks in championship settings have deflated his numbers a bit, so it only projects him to win 58.4% of the time. I can't look at these two's respective performances against Font -- recently -- and pick "No Love".
• Figgy has a 100% decision rate at bantamweight, and his last inside-the-distance win came in November 2020. I'd lean him to win by decision, Figueiredo's decision prop (+250) sits at +285 in the model.

DFS Verdict

• Figueiredo ($20) is crossing into aged territory at bantamweight, and his finishing upside might not be quite as high as most think remembering Garbrandt's setbacks via KO. He's okay in flex spots, but I'll turn elsewhere at the "MVP" 1.5x multiplier.

Bobby Green vs. Jim Miller

Lightweight (155 Pounds)

No one is more excited for UFC 300 than Jim Miller.

After wins at UFC 100 and UFC 200, Miller has been vehement about being placed on this card for years, and he got his wish to face Bobby Green in a matchup of lightweight vets. This is no token slot, though. "A-10" has earned a roster spot in earnest with a 5-1 record in the last two years.

The crafty, experienced Miller won't win contests on efficiency at this point -- as a -0.22 SSR would indicate. He's used present power (0.49% knockdown rate) or submission danger (1.7 attempts per 15 minutes) to turn away aging or inexperienced foes.

On the other side, Green actually entered the 155-pound rankings last year with a stunning knockout of Grant Dawson (8-2 UFC) that followed a submission of credentialed former interim champion Tony Ferguson. Personally, Green has always been criminally underrated with elite striking peripherals, including a +2.40 SSR with tremendous striking accuracy (52%) and defense (62%). He's even added 1.2 takedown attempts per 15 minutes with notoriously good wrestling defense (74%).

At 37, "King" showed he's not quite a top contender anymore after a quick and violent knockout loss against Jalin Turner, but he'll have a three-year age edge versus Miller.

To me, Green's superior peripherals are only more enticing when looking at these two's recent competition. Jim Miller's five UFC wins since the COVID break are 5-11 against all others. Bobby is 7-5 himself in that period, and all five losses have come to fighters who have held a ranking at some point since the break. "King" Green has even beaten three fighters ranked at some point during this period.

Fighting better competition, Bobby has proven he's likely a level above Jim at this stage. There's enough attrition here to create drama for a surprise KO, but I have no doubts who will be winning minutes here.

Betting Verdict

• There's only so much the level of competition input in my model can be tuned, and it's having trouble adjusting to Green exiting the 155-pound rankings to face Miller, who has been fighting at the division's entry level. My model projects Bobby as 53.0% likely to win, but I'm much higher on him.
• This fight is -108 to not go the distance, and the algorithm projects a 54.1% chance that's the case. It is giving most of the decision equity to "King" (35.9% of the time), which I agree with and is why I'm a bit more optimistic about Green's decision prop (+150) than it is.

DFS Verdict

• Green ($15) has been an excellent per-minute fantasy scorer (4.26 points excl. bonuses), but this feels like a fight where both guys show plenty of respect and head to the scorecards. He's a decent flex play, but I would avoid MVP.

Jessica Andrade vs. Marina Rodriguez

Women's Strawweight (115 Pounds)

You can only have so much confidence when your model favors a +170 underdog, but mine did in Jessica Andrade's last bout, and she looked like a -5000 favorite.

Andrade posted a "y'all must have forgot" effort to drop Mackenzie Dern four times in just 53 significant strikes landed, securing a second-round KO. "Bate Estaca" went through an ugly period of losses that she admitted were short-notice bouts taken to pay bills, but a return to a full camp against Dern seemed to reinvigorate the former champ.

I still believe there's a path where she is the best 115-pounder in the world. She lost in just 42 seconds to Weili Zhang -- in Zhang's native China -- but has the well-rounded skills to defeat just about anyone behind a +1.31 SSR, 2.45 takedowns per 15 minutes behind excellent efficiency (54%), and three UFC wins via submission.

A win over Marina Rodriguez would likely put her one step closer to the rematch, but Rodriguez is no easy out, either. The Muay Thai ace's +1.88 SSR could reflect what is the best striking offense in the division. It's her well-roundedness that likely won't ever come now that she's 36. Her 66% takedown D isn't particularly strong, and she ceded 12:02 in control time to Virna Jandiroba once down on the mat.

Marina's violent TKO win over Michelle Waterson-Gomez -- a foe whom she previously went the distance with -- showed marked improvement, but that was also yet another matchup without a pronounced wrestling threat that typically has produced good results.

It's just tough to trust Rodriguez anywhere in this fight. Amanda Lemos knocked her out in 2022, and Andrade's power was on display in her last fight. Her wrestling woes speak for themselves when Andrade is efficient in that realm. Other than squeaking out a decision with perfect footwork, I don't see her path to victory.

Betting Verdict

• My model made a stand here, pegging Andrade as a -155 favorite (60.5% implied) rather than the -140 odds on FanDuel.
• In line with divisional trends at women's strawweight, I've got this fight 66.0% likely to see its full conclusion. It is a three-round fight, too.
  • That places quite a bit of value on Andrade's decision prop (+240), which the model would assign +155 odds.

DFS Verdict

• This is comfortably the second-worst projected DFS environment on the card, but Andrade ($14) is a favorite I'll mix into flex spots. She posted 164.6 FanDuel points in her last win via decision in a three-round fight, so upside isn't out of the question.

Jalin Turner vs. Renato Moicano

Lightweight (155 Pounds)

Renato Moicano is nicknamed "Money" due to an outspoken desire for big fights. Cards don't get bigger than this one.

Moicano's fan-friendly post-fight commentary has increased his notoriety, but he can fight, too. The former featherweight is 5-2 since moving up to lightweight, and his aggressive grappling is reminiscent of another Brazilian that made that shift with success -- Charles Oliveira.

Overall, I've never had any qualms with Moicano's analytical profile. His +0.61 SSR is fine for a grappler with good striking accuracy (47%) and defense (60%). He's efficient getting takedowns (47% accuracy) with good defense of his own. It's just been moving up in competition that's been the issue, losing to both ranked 155ers he's faced. Jalin Turner is the third.

"The Tarantula" is one of the most gifted athletic fighters in the promotion. At 6'3" with a 77" reach, he's got insane length for this division, but it's not "skinny" length when he's posted a massive 1.36% knockdown rate and 1.2 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Turner's lone bugaboo has been a 41% striking defense, which allowed for his foes to squeak out a split decision win in the two setbacks amidst this current 7-2 streak.

As a fan of "Money", this is a horrible matchup for him. Turner's length and power could only exacerbate the durability issues we saw in a first-round loss to Rafael Fiziev, and his low knockdown rate (0.16%) isn't the power to give Jalin's poor defense a test. Plus, Turner's 75% takedown D is a step up from Drew Dober's (56%), and Moicano posted an unspectacular 3-for-6 effort securing mat returns against Drew in February.

Betting Verdict

• My model doesn't show value on Turner's moneyline, which would be given -155 odds behind a 60.9% probability to win.
• Trends say to expect an early finish here. Turner hasn't seen the distance in 6 of his last 8 bouts, and Moicano is riding a stretch of 8 early finishes in 10. The model has this fight 68.5% likely to end early.

DFS Verdict

• Turner ($18) has a sample littered with explosive moments that fuel DFS upside. In a positive matchup, he's absolutely an MVP candidate.

Diego Lopes vs. Sodiq Yusuff

Featherweight (145 Pounds)

Even as someone holding a ticket for Diego Lopes to be the 145-pound champion of the world by the end of the year, the hype train is probably out of control.

The reason I took that 45-to-1 plunge is Lopes' star power, which has been on full display since nearly ending Movsar Evloev's perfect, 8-0 UFC run on short notice last year. If there was a 2023 UFC "Rookie of the Year" award, he'd have won it following that performance with a submission of Gavin Tucker and knockout of Pat Sabatini that took a combined 188 seconds.

However, Lopes' analytical profile suggests worse days ahead. His striking (37%) and takedown (42%) are both wretched, which bit him during a Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS) loss to Joanderson Brito (4-1 UFC). He's currently reliant on the spectacular with a 1.43% knockdown rate and video-game-like 5.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes. His opponent, Sodiq Yusuff, operates in the "solid" realm instead.

"Super" Sodiq's 7-2 UFC tenure includes only losses to top-10 contenders at featherweight, Arnold Allen and Edson Barboza. Barboza was his last bout, which wasn't a bad effort at all when he amassed a +14 striking differential. Having Barboza hurt in the first round, Yusuff used too much energy to try and score the finish and faded as the fight progressed.

Yusuff's 54% striking D and 62% takedown D are much better, amounting in a +1.39 SSR that's superior in terms of both sample size and level of competition. A submission two fights ago also implies he knows what he's doing on the mat -- as does 0 career losses via sub.

As someone who backed Lopes in both wins, Tucker and Sabatini's fragility played right into the Brazilian's hands. Yusuff is a sturdy contender that will be far more similar to Evloev. He shouldn't be the underdog.

Betting Verdict

• Valuing Yusuff's level of competition and defensive efficiency, my model has Yusuff as 53.3% likely to win this fight as the underdog.
  • If you like Lopes, I'd bet his submission prop (+310). The model has it at +180, and Yusuff's surrendered just 2 knockdowns in 463 significant strikes absorbed.
• This fight is projected to end early 66.0% of the time in the model, which is in line with -200 odds to not go the distance. Nearly all of the decision equity lies with Yusuff rather than the bottom player, Lopes. I'd rather bet Sodiq's decision prop (+280) than the total.

DFS Verdict

• Theoretically, Lopes ($15) has more finishing upside here, but I think I'll avoid the chaky mid-range favorite when believing he's overvalued to win. Yusuff ($13) is a handy value piece.

Kayla Harrison vs. Holly Holm

Women's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

It was only a matter of time before Kayla Harrison made it to UFC, but there wasn't an organic weight class fit. She's competed in PFL at 145 and 155 pounds when bantamweight (135) is as high as UFC now goes.

However, she took the plunge and successfully made 136 pounds on Friday, and she'll compete in the top 10 after a 16-1 pro career that's turned her into one of women's MMA's most recognizable stars regardless of promotion. A tight, controversial decision loss to PFL champ Larissa Pacheco is the 33-year-old's only blemish.

The former Olympic gold medalist in women's Judo -- during both the 2012 and 2016 games -- has one of the most dominant ground games in all of MMA regardless of gender. Especially at a lower weight class, it's hard to envision she's not a dominant ground fighter in UFC.

First up? Holly Holm and her solid 78% takedown defense. This is a good matchup as an initital test.

"The Preacher's Daughter" has been a staple in this division since a shocking upset of Ronda Rousey in 2015. Time flies. It's fitting she's on this special card, but at 42 years old, Holm's window of contention thoroughly has passed with losses to Ketlen Vieira and Mayra Bueno Silva within the division's top 10.

Holly has a limited sample against grapplers that adds some ambiguity to this particular stylistic clash. Setbacks to Miesha Tate and Valentina Shevchenko, allowing a combined five takedowns, came all the way back in 2016. Vieira only landed one of her seven efforts on Holm but did score a submission attempt on the one that snuck through.

There are better spots to wager than the dataless Harrison, but I just can't believe this aged version of Holm will provide enough resistance to hold off one of the best female grapplers ever (by any measure) to win the fight outright.

Betting Verdict

• Harrison's moneyline (-430) could seem like a bargain when Saturday's affair has come and gone, but this also could be a competitive affair where Harrison's worst traits in the Pacheco loss are exposed at distance again. I'll pass from a moneyline perspective.
  • Given she'll be allowed to use elbows for the the first time since 2020, I actually like darts at Kayla's first-round (+370) and second-round (+600) props.

DFS Verdict

• I'm more open to Harrison ($21) in this realm given she's secured 11 first-or-second-round finishes -- especially when Holm ($8) was finished via submission in her last bout.
• Expecting a grappling-heavy affair, I just don't think Holly has much scoring upside as a punt even if she wins. It'd be an ugly decision. Always more of a point fighter, her last knockout came in June 2017.

Aljamain Sterling vs. Calvin Kattar

Featherweight (145 Pounds)

Of all leans and quality fights to model, this was my most convincing outcome.

Former 135-pound champion Aljamain Sterling will debut in a weight class that seemed inevitable for his frame at some point, and he's a -172 favorite to defeat Calvin Kattar to enter featherweight's top 10.

"Funkmaster" was on the wrong end of Sean O'Malley's breakout moment, ending a nine-fight winning streak via knockout. As you'd expect, the dominant winning has led to a sparkling analytical profile that includes elite striking accuracy (52%) and defense (58%) wrapped into a +2.32 SSR. Yet, Aljo's best attribute is arguably his grappling, backpacking several 135ers behind 1.97 takedowns and 0.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

With his one concern a 45% takedown defense, Kattar seems like an excellent matchup for him. The Bostonian has posted poor volume (0.42 per 15 minutes) and accuracy (29%) on his wrestling attempts with next-to-no submission danger.

Kattar was on the wrong side of the largest beatdown in UFC history, amassing a -312 striking differential against Max Holloway that I'm not sure will ever be eclipsed. Such a poor, large sample will always cause my model headaches, but the boxer's low accuracy (39%) and minimal power (0.66% knockdown rate) has made an appearance in other fights since Holloway, so it's not a reason to toss the poor metrics out the window.

Now at age 36, Kattar's fleeting power metrics and poor efficiency don't bode well for replicating O'Malley's result, and his sample facing grapplers is tiny. This seems like prime spot for the former champion.

Betting Verdict

• My model struggles with weight-class shifts and Calvin Kattar in general, so its wonky -265 verdict in Sterling's favor likely isn't the most stable projection, but it does imply that he's a solid favorite at -172.
• This is the first three-round fight for both Sterling and Kattar since 2020. They've had prolonged results in five-round fights, so a 69.0% likelihood to go the distance checks out.
  • Sterling's inside-the-distance prop (+310) is intriguing here when the model has it at +295 (25.4% implied).

DFS Verdict

• Lopsided bouts elsewhere remove sweating Sterling ($16) at MVP, but he's a fine flex play with a solid historical rate of scoring fantasy points (3.89 per minute excl. bonuses).

Aleksandar Rakic vs. Jiri Prochazka

Light Heavyweight (205 Pounds)

The 205-pound strap is on the line later on Saturday evening. These gents would like a seat at the table once the skirmish is decided.

To a casual UFC fan, Jiri Prochazka is certainly more front of mind when, last November, he was defeated by champion Alex Pereira via a controversial stoppage in the second round. "BJP" was 3-0 in UFC to that point with a Samurai-like intensity and haircut -- plus a flair for the dramatic.

Prochazka's offense has been excellent, landing 5.31 significant strikes per minute with 55% accuracy. He even submitted Glover Teixeira, who has seven UFC wins via submission of his own. It's Jiri's 40% striking defense that cost him against Pereira and made the Teixeira fight hairy at moments.

Aleksandar Rakic makes for an excellent step down the rankings for him. Rakic has been on the shelf since a 2022 knee injury cost him a fight with Jan Blachowicz that he was dominating. "Rocket" was once the hot prospect in this aging division but has since been usurped by Prochazka and Jamahal Hill, both of whom having touched UFC gold since his last bout.

Rakic's style wasn't always super entertaining, but he managed pace and distance well to amount a +1.71 SSR. His striking accuracy (50%) and defense (53%) are both solid despite being unspectacular. The newest wrinkle against Blachowicz -- a takedown on four attempts -- could pause Prochazka at times in this bout.

However, without a quality win against a current contender, I can't pick Rakic coming off an extended leave. Prochazka knocked out Volkan Oezdemir (9-6 UFC), who defeated Rakic in 2019. Jiri also stopped Teixeira and Dominick Reyes (6-4 UFC) when Rakic hasn't scored a finish since before the COVID break.

One way or another, I'm backing the 'dog.

Betting Verdict

• My model has Prochazka 53.1% likely to win despite the defensive concerns. I've got him winning via finish 31.5% of the time compared to just 18.6% for the favorite, and those significant moments would also swing a decision.
• Interestingly, it is projecting an early finish 50.1% of the time. That's basically a coin flip, but juxtaposed with -210 odds for one, I actually am showing value on a longer fight.
  • The model has Jiri's decision prop (+600) at +365, which is the fight outcome showing the most value in the method of victory market.

DFS Verdict

• This decision seems even easier; Prochazka ($14) makes a ton of sense when Rakic has averaged 46.6 FanDuel points per fight in his last four fights despite a 3-1 record. It almost defies logic how little he does offensively.

Bo Nickal vs. Cody Brundage

Middleweight (185 Pounds)

On a historic night, Bo Nickal will make UFC history before this fight even starts.

Nickal will almost certainly break his own record as the largest moneyline favorite in UFC history. He was a -2200 favorite in some spots against Val Woodburn (0-2 UFC) in his last fight, and Nickal sits -3000 on FanDuel entering this bout with Cody Brundage. Anything can happen in a cage fight, but it's largely appropriate.

The former Penn State wrestling standout has vanquished all four foes in UFC-affiliated fights in under three minutes, landing an absurd 11.04 takedowns and 13.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes thus far. He even showed off the hands in a standing knockout of Woodburn. His fundamental wrestling base gives him such a high floor to take down and control MMA opponents.

Brundage's 73% takedown defense is certainly a step up in competition, but he's one of middleweight's most uninspiring roster members. After losing to Sedriques Dumas (2-2 UFC) in a pathetic effort where he landed three significant strikes in 15 minutes, Brundage used a silly disqualification ruling to skate by Jacob Malkoun, and his last win was a desperate slam within a submission attempt from Zach Reese (0-1 UFC) that happened to knock the debutant out cold.

With some of the worst striking D in the division (43%), I could absolutely see Nickal starching Brundage as two others have. Nick Maximov (2-2 UFC) landed four takedowns on Cody, so forgive me for thinking he might struggle against a future college wrestling hall-of-famer.

Throwing such a wide moneyline into a parlay is asking for trouble, but Nickal should keep the train rolling. He's -240 (70.6% implied) to win in the first round.

Betting Verdict

• From a value perspective, I just don't see much betting value in this fight.
  • Nickal's round-two prop (+550) is somewhat interesting in the event that Brundage provides the most resistance so far, but I also would heavily favor Nickal to win in the first, and it could come in either method.

DFS Verdict

• This fight is exactly why I love to play UFC DFS. I can use Nickal ($24) heavily in the MVP slot and root for greatness to prevail. He'll be popular, but it's hard to turn away from someone with elite pace that's -550 to win inside the first two rounds and exceed 100 FanDuel points.

Arman Tsarukyan vs. Charles Oliveira

Lightweight (155 Pounds)

Before we hand out belts, we have some serious business to take care of in this one. Both of these fighters have lost to 155-pound champion Islam Makhachev, so UFC brass is having Arman Tsarukyan and Charles Oliveira break the tie in the cage.

Tsarukyan's loss to Makhachev came on short notice in his debut, but even his competitiveness there was a lens into something special. "Ahalkalakets" has gone 8-1 since with his only setback a tight one, via decision, to fellow top-10 contender Mateusz Gamrot. He knocked out Beneil Dariush within the first round in his last fight -- another statement both of these men can make.

Wrestling is probably the favorite's signature trait, averaging 3.40 takedowns per 15 minutes with 36% accuracy landing them. He can hold his own against anyone at distance, but his 48% striking accuracy, 54% defense, and 0.63% knockdown rate just aren't "special" anywhere. Interestingly, he's never recorded a UFC submission attempt as a ground fighter.

That last note is especially pertinent against "Do Bronx" Oliveira, the promotion's all-time leader in submissions (16). The former champion isn't past his prime at 34, and he seems primed for the pace and level of controlled chaos with which he's become familiar. Oliveira has seen the cards just 3 times in 32 fights.

The Chute Box staple has a massive 1.03% knockdown rate and 2.7 submission attempts per 15 to end fights quickly, but his 51% striking D and 55% takedown D can also be extremely vulnerable.

Personally, Tsarukyan's lack of submission prowess so far is a huge red flag against inarguably the best to ever do it. Plus, Oliveira has more defined power when efficiency is roughly similar on both sides.

Outside of the quick work of Dariush's fleeting chin, Tsarukyan lost his only other fight inside the UFC's rankings. If Oliveira seemed older or weaker in recent bouts, I'd understand buying the hype, but my model is definitely not.

Betting Verdict

• In a pick 'em, I'd have to weight Tsarukyan's improvement and positive age gap, but the wide line here squarely places the betting value on Do Bronx. I've got the underdog winning 53.1% of the time.
• It shouldn't be a surprise in a typical Oliveira "car crash" that the model is expecting an early finish 71.0% of the time. With just a 4.2% chance Oliveira wins by decision, I'd play his inside-the-distance prop (+240) in lieu of a moneyline.

DFS Verdict

• This is a good MVP environment, but I can't help but believe Tsarukyan ($17) is overvalued to win it. I'm turning to Oliveira ($12) in flex spots while acknowledging the former is still a solid idea.

Justin Gaethje vs. Max Holloway

Lightweight (155 Pounds)
Five-Round "BMF" Title Fight
Austin's Fight of the Night

Any time they put the "BMF" belt on the line, it's instantly one of the best fights of the year on paper -- and it's delivered in both so far. I don't expect Justin Gaethje and Max Holloway to let us down.

Colorado's Gaethje is the defending holder of the belt after a superb head kick to defeat Dustin Poirier last July. After securing a performance bonus in 10 of his 12 fights, no one quite fits the acronym like "The Highlight". His 7.35 significant strikes landed per minute with 60% accuracy are comfortably the best marks in the lightweight rankings offensively with a striking defense (53%) just vulnerable enough to make it interesting.

On principle, Gaethje has never even attempted a UFC takedown. I think that's a disqualification for this belt, no? Luckily, Holloway is probably down to bang it out on the feet.

"Blessed" is one of the best 145ers of all time, so yes, he's at a bit of a disadvantage in this weight class. He lost to Poirier in his only 155-pound appearance but had a +3 striking differential in the bout.

I could go on ad nauseum about the UFC's all-time leader in significant strikes (3197), but his striking accuracy (47%) and defense (59%) are also elite in addition to never surrendering a knockdown in 28 UFC fights. Holloway's lone missing piece is significant power, amassing a 0.31% knockdown rate that won't get better at lightweight.

If this was a "finish or void" market, the more powerful Gaethje's -205 price would make more sense. To win this fight overall, Holloway's 7.17 significant strikes per minute can keep pace with Gaethje, and he's shown better defensive acumen. Max has also shown two submission attempts in his last four fights when Gaethje's last two losses have come via sub.

I expect a back-and-forth, competitive brawl. This line is too wide.

Betting Verdict

• With respect to Holloway's legendary durability, my model seems him as the more efficient striker with what little grappling upside the fight has. I've got him at -125 while acknowledging one of its blindspots is fighters shifting weight classes.
• I've got this fight to go the distance 64.7% of the time, which shouldn't be too surprising. Holloway has seen the cards in 9 of his last 10 fights, and Gaethje went there with two different ranked lightweights before the highlight against Poirier.

DFS Verdict

• You could justify either Gaethje or Holloway in what is sure to be a fantasy-point haven scheduled for five full rounds, but if it goes the entire distance, there's minimal doubt that Max would be the preferred side at a lower $16 salary.

Zhang Weili vs. Yan Xiaonan

Women's Strawweight (115 Pounds)
Five-Round Championship Fight

I've been waiting for a fighter at 115 to seperate. Zhang Weili's last fight implies she finally has.

Weili brutalized Amanda Lemos, who just notched another top-10 win, for 163 significant strikes and 6 takedowns in a dominant decision win that was her best performance yet. Lemos' perceived grappling edge was squashed instantly, and we know Zhang's +2.50 SSR and decent 0.41% knockdown rate (for this division) typically give her the edge on the feet.

This matchup with Yan Xiaonan was originally billed for a potential spot in China with two of the country's brightest stars. but the UFC opted to add a title fight to its biggest card ever. Still, I expect it to be the least competitive of the three straps on the line.

Xiaonan's shaky history just isn't super inspiring to be the one to topple Zhang's empire. Before a knockout of Jessica Andrade (who was on extremely short notice for the fight), Yan dropped two of three fights in this division's top 10, and her only win was a majority decision that couldn't have been closer with Mackenzie Dern -- a loser of four of her last six.

Her +1.99 SSR and 61% striking D are quality marks given decent competition, but there's just minimal amount of "special". Her knockdown of Andrade was the first of her career. Plus, Xiaonan's grappling is likely passable at best after getting stuck underneath Carla Esparza in fairly humiliating fashion.

Without a volume, reach, power, or grappling advantage, I'm not the one to tell you how Xiaonan tops Weili in a matchup of fairly similar fighters.

Betting Verdict

• My model has Zhang at 69.4% to win, which is somewhat capped by the lack of finishing danger in a fight that it projects to go the distance 65.0% of the time.
  • Other than variance in judging, it has Weili 60.8% likely to win the distance differential, and her weighted grappling edge is 85.5%. I don't know how Yan wins convincingly in either area.
• With expected length, Zhang's decision prop (+185) shows value when I have it at +150.

DFS Verdict

• The five-round volume floor helps Zhang's MVP case when a decision seems so likely. In what I believe to be an easier matchup than Lemos, it's worth remembering she posted 153.8 FanDuel points (!) against her in a decision. Her constant aggression serves us well within this realm.

Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill

Light Heavyweight (205 Pounds)
Five-Round Championship Fight

Just three years ago this weekend, Alex Pereira wasn't even in UFC. He's come a long way to headline the promotion's biggest event ever.

Pereira used a trio of kickboxing wins over Israel Adesanya outside of UFC to fast track a title shot at 185 pounds, and he stamped a fourth win to become the champ before losing a rematch to Izzy in April 2023. With middleweight such a tough cut for "Poatan", a future at 205 pounds was inevitable, but I'm not sure anyone thought he'd be a two-division champion with wins over Jan Blachowicz and Jiri Prochazka in under a year's time.

The Brazilian's striking excellence is seen well through a 62% striking accuracy, which is mostly through his signature calf kick that immobilizes opponents regularly. His 50% striking D is the concern -- and one that bit him against Adesanya in a fight he was otherwise winning. With no real grappling offense shown in UFC, this should be an excellent fight with Jamahal Hill.

"Sweet Dreams" is an American kickboxer that's regularly put opponents on the rope. He lands 7.31 significant strikes per minute with a 54% accuracy that can match Poatan's, and his 47% striking D hasn't ceded a knockdown at distance yet. Hill's lone "TKO" loss was an elbow dislocation in a grappling situation with Paul Craig, and he's got zero UFC takedowns or submission attempts to his name.

Also a former champ at 205, Hill never lost this title in the octagon. He landed an absurd 232 significant strikes on Glover Teixeira and seemed prime to dominate this division until an Achilles tear in January 2023. This fight marks his return.

Two sensational strikers with next-to-no grappling make this fight pretty easy to predict. These two have identical 79" reach for a striking match, but Hill is the natural light heavyweight in terms of power, and he hasn't shown any vulnerability to power like Pereira did at distance against Adesanya. Even in the two's first fight, Poatan was wobbled at times.

My model is giving grappling "upside" to Pereira on the basis of one career takedown and submission attempt. Yet, it projects Hill to win the striking distance differential 100% -- yes, 100% -- of the time based on historical volume and accuracy. That's hard to turn down as an underdog.

Betting Verdict

• Poorly equipped to handicap a fight this one-dimensional, my model has Hill at +110 versus +114 on FanDuel. However, its extreme faith in him to win at distance is why I felt comfortable enough to unleash on Hill at +125 months ago.
• Unsurprisingly, the model has this fight 64.1% likely to end early. I've got Hill's knockout prop (+200) sitting at +210 (32.4% implied) in the model, and I prefer that to a bet on this fight not to go the distance (-430).

DFS Verdict

• This fight got the elevated salary bump for a five-rounder that the others didn't. The savings with Hill ($17) come in handy when value is so tough to come by on a card with several well-positioned favorites.
  • I still wouldn't stack this fight despite a path -- an unlikely one -- to be an all-out war on the feet. We'll have too many dominant winners elsewhere.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.