UFC 298: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. Regardless of your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout.

Without further delay, let's break down the 12 fights at UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria, taking place at the Honda Center in Anaheim, CA on Saturday.

Miranda Maverick vs. Andrea Lee

Women's Flyweight (125 Pounds)

In 2020, there were much higher hopes for both of these ladies kicking off the card. They're now at a pivotal crossroads at the edge of the flyweight rankings.

At 34 years old, Andrea Lee certainly has less time, and her title hopes were all but squashed with a loss to Natalia Silva (5-0 UFC) late last year. I've always maintained "KGB" Lee is significantly better than her 5-6 UFC record, sporting a +1.22 striking success rate (SSR), and her wrestling has improved in recent fights to the point where she landed more takedowns (5) against top-10 contender Maycee Barber than Miranda Maverick, known for her wrestling, did (1).

Lee is the significant underdog here with a 54% takedown D that could be a non-starter in a matchup with "Fear The" Maverick. She lands 2.48 takedowns per 15 minutes with 48% accuracy -- both plus marks for this division.

However, Maverick is also likely outgunned at distance. Ceding four inches of reach, Maverick's 46% striking accuracy and 59% defense lag behind Lee, and the elephant in the room is her level of competition. Four of her five UFC wins have come over opponents with a losing record, and the only exception (Gillian Robertson) now fights at 115 pounds after not sticking at 125.

Maverick hasn't separated from a ranked fighter yet in a position where I'd ever trust her at this betting number, but Lee's shaky reputation defending takedowns isn't super desirable, either.

Betting Verdict

• My model has Maverick at 52.2% likely to win this bout, and I agree she's a worthy favorite. I could also easily see her not having much success with her wrestling and getting styled on for 15 minutes. It's a nibble at Lee's decision prop (+230) only for me in this one.
• I've also got this fight at 71.6% likely to go its entire distance, and neither woman has been finished in the octagon. I feel most confident about that prognostications even if there isn't value behind -260 odds.

DFS Verdict

• You could make an argument to fade this fight entirely when it's so overwhelmingly likely to go the distance, but Lee ($12) comes with a friendly salary to fill a lineup hole if needed, and she can certainly win.

Oban Elliott vs. Val Woodburn

Welterweight (170 Pounds)

On resumes and fighting ability alone, this fight shouldn't be on a pay-per-view. But, the way UFC has crafted these stories, it makes a bit more sense.

Oban Elliott may not have had the most impressive win on the 2023 season of Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS), but he might have made the most fans through his post-fight commentary -- and he did fight well. "The Welsh Gangster" outlasted the gas tank of his opponent to cruise to a +1.07 SSR, land 4 of his 11 takedowns, and score a majority decision. At the very least, he earned his way in through the traditional route.

On the flip side, Val Woodburn is here solely out of courage. He stepped up to face stud prospect Bo Nickal (3-0 UFC) on short notice, and it was about as poor of a performance as UFC has ever seen. In Nickal's weakest area as a striker, Woodburn landed just 22% of his significant strikes, defended 31%, and was knocked out in just 38 seconds. Bo didn't even have to use his collegiate wrestling background.

Woodburn now drops to 170 pounds for the first time in his career, and his regional competition is frighteningly poor. To make matters worse, he's been to a decision in his last two wins over said competition. There is really one argument he has to win this fight; his strength of being a former 205-pounder entirely wins out through punching power or elite takedown defense.

I'm just sooner convinced he's not UFC material. Elliott showed an elite striking defense (61%) on DWCS to a point where I believe he gets the better of Val in any area the fight goes.

Betting Verdict

• This line opened around -175 in Elliott's direction and has steamed to -290 on FanDuel as of Friday morning. I can't help but agree with the sharp bettors moving the number. This feels like a sub-UFC-caliber prospect taking on an average one.
• There are cases for and against this total.
  • Elliott has gone to a decision in four straight, and Woodburn has in two straight wins. That hints at length.
  • Val's win condition seems almost exclusively inside the full distance, and Elliott seems to have so many key advantages that he could destroy the underdog. I'm leaning more in this direction.

DFS Verdict

• Elliott ($22) had two finishes in his last three wins with Cage Warriors, and I'm not even entirely sure this is a step up in competition. He's got to be in the MVP mix due to shakier favorites to come.

Danny Barlow vs. Josh Quinlan

Welterweight (170 Pounds)

"Left Hand 2 God" has a left hand from God, as well.

Danny Barlow was another marquee DWCS star from the 2023 season, scoring a knockout over fellow Memphis native Raheam Forest in a main event. Barlow's counting stats backed up the emphatic statement, posting a +6.83 SSR behind elite striking accuracy (57%) and defense (61%). It's always worth remembering Forest may just not be a UFC-caliber foe, but the start couldn't have been better.

On the flip side, Josh Quinlan got exposed a bit in his last bout against Trey Waters (1-0 UFC). On short notice, Waters posted a +54 striking differential and ran circles around Quinlan, who is also a DWCS alum. Quinlan's first two UFC-affiliated appearances were knockout wins inside of 124 seconds, and the third fight showed how poorly that represents actual skill when you move up in competition.

There's absolutely potential that Quinlan could do the same to Barlow, but the two inches of height and seven inches of reach Barlow has in this fight are a massive advantage when both have exclusively been strikers through a limited sample.

Barlow's only UFC-affiliated opponent is Forest at 0-1. Quinlan's are a combined 2-5. This isn't a fight we have to (or probably should) bet.

Betting Verdict

• I won't make an official betting recommendation here. I believe Barlow's athleticism and power win early and often into Quinlan's poor striking D (50%), but the samples are small enough and poor enough that an upset wouldn't be shocking.

DFS Verdict

• I'll get my exposure to Barlow ($19) in this format that sooner justifies risk. If he's legitimate, he should flatten Quinlan and would be an interesting MVP candidate as a result.
  • We saw this last week with Hyder Amil against an outmatched foe. This unknown entry-level area of UFC is where the whopper FanDuel scores tend to reside. The veterans are too reliable.

Zhang Mingyang vs. Brendson Ribeiro

Light Heavyweight (205 Pounds)

If I didn't make my point about knockouts with Quinlan, I'll revisit it with Zhang Mingyang here.

The MMA betting community is hyperventilating about Mingyang's knockout loss to Askar Mozharov, an 0-1 UFC fighter who lied about his record to make it to the promotion at all. I really don't care; the first-round knockout is pretty fluky when Mingyang was 19 years old, and Mozharov is a noted cheater. Who truly knows what happened?

When putting pen to paper as a mature athlete, "Mountain Tiger" cruised through Road to the UFC to a point where he was plucked off the campaign to make this debut against Brendson Ribeiro. Mingyang scored a knockout with tremendous striking accuracy (56%) and defense (59%) in about four minutes.

He's the first foe for Ribeiro, a fighter I'm sure UFC has been puzzled trying to match up. Ribeiro was a +500 underdog to Bruno Lopes on DWCS and blitzed through him to score a first-round finish himself. Ribeiro attempted 18.39 significant strikes per minute and only landed 46% of them; a "sloppy flurry" would be approrpiate, but to his credit, a flustered Lopes only landed 39% of his shots.

The Brazilian has great physical tools at 6'3" with an 81" reach, but the commentary of his fight was also discussing the bevy of openings he left if Lopes had shown more aggression.

This is a fight I'd never bet in a million years because it'll be violent and quick between two unknown quantities. At this stage, I see Mingyang as the more polished, well-trained prospect with Ribeiro having just pulled the upset of a lifetime last time out. I lean toward the favorite.

Betting Verdict

• One-round samples for both against totally unproven opponents aren't worth my hard-earned dollars. This main pay-per-view card is loaded, so we'll save the bankroll.

DFS Verdict

• I'd imagine that Ribeiro ($15) is the more popular play here with the physical tools and better counting stats, but I have a lean toward Mingyang ($15) in a fight that should be vital for these purposes. Under 1.5 rounds is -320 on FanDuel.

Rinya Nakamura vs. Carlos Vera

Men's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

Rinya Nakamura was a -850 favorite when I pulled data on Sunday. He's now -1300 on FanDuel. They've gone to "prohibitive" status with the Japanese phenom in this spot.

Nakamura has destroyed all four of his UFC-affiliated foes. Three of them lost in the first round, and the reliably durable Fernie Garcia (0-4 UFC) still ceded four takedowns, three submission attempts, and a +21 striking differential. "Hybrid" showed off the grappling chops against Garcia after knocking out Toshiomi Kazama (0-2 UFC) in his debut.

Personally, this line is less about his ability and more about how he stacks up compared to Carlos Vera, a 36-year-old veteran from the regional scene that Conor McGregor brought onto The Ultimate Fighter in the season he coached. Vera lost a two-round decision to Brad Katona (2-3 UFC) on the show, and Katona's setback at UFC 297 hasn't aged that result particularly well.

Vera actually has a two-inch reach edge in this spot, but Katona was smaller than Rinya and returned to the promotion with a complete, unathletic dud. At 28 years old, the storied Japanese wrestler's athletic gifts should carry him at worst here. At best, he can find Vera's chin and make another emphatic statement.

Without a quality win yet, I'm not this sold on Nakamura being a slam-dunk, ranked-level fighter in UFC, but this appears to be another favorable matchup on short notice. A win over Vera wouldn't be the "quality" one that I'm searching for anyway.

All in all, I've got no reason to disagree with FanDuel's confident 92.9% projection to win in this spot.

Betting Verdict

• With this fight at -134 to exceed 1.5 rounds, I see Nakamura's win path as a three-pronged fork between a knockout, submission, and decision. I believe Nakamura's inside-the-distance prop (-195) is most undervalued when oddsmakers are implying with that number that Rinya wins 26.8% of the time by decision. I don't see Vera lasting that long.

DFS Verdict

• We really don't have many quality favorites in line for early finishes anywhere on the card, so Nakamura ($23) is truly the "default" MVP candidate on the card, and properly gauging your exposure to him -- rather than outright fading -- is likely what decides tournaments.
  • There is a version of this fight that goes to a decision and isn't impactful within DFS lineups, and he should be enormously popular.

Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs. Junior Tafa

Heavyweight (265 Pounds)

This was a first for me. On just over 24 hours' notice, Junior Tafa is stepping in to replace his injured brother, Justin, from this original matchup. Luckily, as heavyweights, there wasn't a weight cut required for either fighter, so this came together with 20 minutes to spare in the weigh-in window.

It really won't impact the quality of this bout. Tafa's lone UFC win came via a knockout in 84 seconds, which is similar to Justin's four KO wins inside of two minutes (and no others). The "Tafa Gang" are the new era of UFC's boom-or-bust knockout coin flips at heavyweight, and if it doesn't come, their limited grappling skills and per-minute striking efficiency usually leads to an "L".

Junior's data sample shows an 84% takedown D, but it might be misleading when he still allowed Mo Usman (3-0 UFC) to control 80.1% of their fight in April 2023. Marcos Rogerio de Lima, with three takedowns in his latest win and two career UFC wins via submission, is an even more accomplished heavyweight grappler than Usman.

"Pezao" is solely a durability risk in this spot behind a suboptimal 51% striking D, but I don't put a ton of stock into his first KO loss at heavyweight in his last fight. Derrick Lewis' silly, unpredictable flying knee is one of those fluke results that isn't really something that can be replicated.

I have a ton of respect for Tafa stepping in on a day's notice, but there's a reason he can do so. There's limited skill and a hammer-or-bust aspect to their fighting style, which I was behind the underrated durability of Rogerio de Lima heading into the original matchup.

Betting Verdict

• I had a wager on Rogerio de Lima's moneyline (-140) before the cancellation. Especially considering the circumstances, Rogerio de Lima's updated -205 moneyline for the less-experienced brother seems like a solid proposition.
  • While it's possible these two swing for the fences, I'm guessing Pezao's strategy will be very conservative. I love Rogerio de Lima's submission-or-decision prop in this spot when available, which could be shortly before the event due to the late-notice addition.

DFS Verdict

• This fight was a late addition to the DFS slate with Tafa ($13) added in. Rogerio de Lima ($16) stayed at his original salary, which is a nice bargain for a heavy favorite with finishing upside.

Amanda Lemos vs. Mackenzie Dern

Women's Strawweight (115 Pounds)

UFC has a great habit of making a quality fight of two combatants coming off ugly losses. This is one of them.

Amanda Lemos scored points for heart and toughness in a five-round beating against champion Weili Zhang, but it showed how far she is from the apex of the division. Lemos allowed 6 of 7 takedowns and landed 24 total significant strikes. Yes, that is under one per minute, and the accuracy (38%) was dreadful.

I've always felt Lemos was a bit flawed. She's relied on a 1.54% knockdown rate in a division without much power, posting a striking defense (42%) and takedown defense (55%) that are gettable for all challengers. She's also quietly 36 years old. Her power is the factor has her favored over Mackenzie Dern in this spot.

Dern just surrendered four (!) knockdowns to division staple Jessica Andrade, but Andrade also submitted Lemos in just over three minutes. Both Mackenzie (3) and Amanda (2) have multiple ranked wins against the bottom half of the division, so it'll be interesting to see who is on the higher level here.

The underdog is the division's best submission threat, averaging 1.4 per 15 minutes with four wins of that variety. Her striking (-0.72 SSR) is poor, and her wrestling (14% takedown accuracy) is historically even worse, but these two's common opponent gave me a lens into their matchup.

Dern actually had decent success (3-for-9) on her takedowns against Angela Hill, dominating her for a +60 striking differential that included her first career knockdown. Lemos had a +2 striking differential in a split decision facing Hill.

It's a bit unnerving to back Mack into Lemos' power, but she should be the stronger athlete with submission danger at a +118 pricepoint.

Betting Verdict

• My model's strongest side this weekend is Dern's moneyline (+118). I've actually got her favored to win (53.2%) on projected grappling, age, and strength-of-schedule edges.
• It's peculiar this fight is +158 to go the distance. In the UFC division where it happens most often, five of their six ranked wins have come via the scorecards. The model has this one 55.5% likely to go all 15 minutes.
  • That's why Dern's decision prop (+440) is a great ladder, as well. The model (and my own brain) believe it's her most likely path to win against the durable Lemos.

DFS Verdict

• Expecting a decision, the process punt here would be Dern ($14) for salary savings. Given I'm also picking her to win, she's a key value play on the card in my build.

Anthony Hernandez vs. Roman Kopylov

Middleweight (185 Pounds)

I really wish I knew this matchup was coming before betting Anthony Hernandez to be middleweight's champion by the end of 2024.

Hernandez initially had Ikram Aliskerov (2-0 UFC) and his wretched, unproven 36% striking D lined up to enter the rankings, but Aliskerov pulled out. Roman Kopylov took his spot, and the Russian striker seems to be an equal match for "Fluffy".

Fluffy seemed destined to potentially be cut from UFC before withstanding and surviving Rodolfo Vieira (5-2 UFC) in one of the sport's biggest live betting upsets ever. That fight signaled a change to lean into his excellent cardio and wrestling, landing 6.79 takedowns per 15 minutes with 57% accuracy overall. Hernandez's worst moments -- including a knockout loss to Kevin Holland -- have come behind a 46% striking D, and the striking is far worse than a +0.97 SSR would otherwise indicate.

I also think Hernandez's wrestling and grappling might be just a tad overvalued. He's faced an average takedown D of 54.5% in the four fights in which he's landed one.

Kopylov's 92% takedown defense is the signature attribute to decide this fight. His elite speed has allowed him to post a 53% striking accuracy and 60% defense that should run laps around Fluffy at distance. Though the competition isn't ideal, he's posted four straight knockouts in the second round or later with the tools.

Karl Roberson (5-6 UFC) submitted Kopylov in his debut, though. There's a chance that the winner of this fight looks -500 in hindsight, but I really can't discern which side wins out. That probably makes for a spot to bet the 'dog.

Betting Verdict

• This is a volatile fight to bet on where one guy should cruise. Hernandez's weak strength of schedule (in terms of wrestling defense) matches my model's assumption, which is that Fluffy's betting price should be closer to -165. It's Kopylov or pass for me.
• I've got this one 75.2% likely to end inside the distance. All but one of these two's UFC losses have ended that way, so it checks out.
  • Despite four straight late-round KOs, I'd play Kopylov's first-round (+750) and second-round (+1000) props in this fight. Hernandez's defense is a disaster; I don't think he'd last long if the wrestling isn't working early.

DFS Verdict

• An explosive score awaits from one of these gentleman. Hernandez ($20) has scored with takedowns to be an excellent DFS play without a finish, and Kopylov ($11) seems ripe for a fifth straight if he can stuff his shots.

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Henry Cejudo

Men's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

The depth on this main PPV card is incredible, evidenced by former champion Henry Cejudo in the four slot in his first non-title fight since 2017.

"Triple C" hopped out of retirement and into a title fight with Aljamain Sterling that ended via split decision. It was an incredibly close bout that could have gone either way, but Sterling prevailed and since dropped his belt against Sean O'Malley. The former gold medalist in freestyle wrestling (Bejing 2008) has lived up to that hype with 2.07 takedowns per 15 minutes and an 83% takedown D, but his hands propelled him to a title. He's added a +0.78 SSR and sizable 0.73% knockdown rate along the way.

At 37 years old, the clock is ticking against Cejudo, and Saturday's bout with Merab Dvalishvili is a must-win scenario for him. He might even retire with a defeat at the hands of Sterling's teammate in this one.

"The Machine" Dvalishvili is truly one of a kind. He's mounted 18.19 takedown attempts per 15 minutes in his UFC career, including a record 45 (!) in his last win over another former champ, Petr Yan. His cardiovascular endurance is seemingly endless even if the efficiency on his shots isn't great. Dvalishvili's +2.05 SSR comes from absorbing very little damage (2.41 significant strikes per minute) from a control-based style.

A few years ago, Cejudo would have been a layup pick in a fight where he just needed to defend takedowns, and that part of his game is still sharp. He defended 11 of Sterling's 15 attempts. Dvalishvili is a brutal matchup for anyone because he just keeps coming, but Cejudo's striking accuracy (47%) and defense (60%) are far better. Plus, we've never seen Merab resigned to bottom position in wrestling exchanges for long period, and that's Triple C's game.

Though this reeks of an ugly fight going the full distance, Cejudo's well-roundedness should merit a shorter moneyline than +186.

Betting Verdict

• I've got Merab at -140 to win this one, leaving the betting angle on the underdog. Curiously, Cejudo's knockout prop (+650) is +440 in the model, and I'd agree that's really the only method I see this fight ending early.
• These two have only been finished once in their UFC careers, and both were since at least April 2018. I've got this fight 70.7% likely to go the distance with an even larger lean anecdotally.

DFS Verdict

• Truly, you could avoid this fight altogether in DFS, but Cejudo ($13) is a value play with a chance to nab a win. I've got him at 19.6% to win by finish compared to a paltry 9.7% for Merab.

Ian Garry vs. Geoff Neal

Welterweight (170 Pounds)
Austin's Fight of the Night

I'm not officially excited for this fight until Ian Garry is in the octagon. There have been quite a few issues getting him to finally stepped into ranked competition.

Ireland's Garry has fully taken a page out of the Conor McGregor playbook, using brash trash talk and a knockout-friendly style to surge himself up the 170-pound rankings. Garry's knockout of Daniel Rodriguez (7-3 UFC) was his most impressive win to date, but he was the latest to get a bump via aging veteran Neil Magny in his last bout and disappointed by going all 15 minutes despite Magny's wobbled legs.

"The Future" has a +3.09 SSR with a 69% takedown D that likely won't even be tested here, but his 53% striking defense is still quite the concern. He was dropped to the canvas by Song Kenan (5-4 UFC) just three fights ago. Geoff Neal, a.k.a. "Handz of Steel", will look to test his chin in earnest.

Against a much higher level of competition, Neal has a comparable striking accuracy (50%) and better striking D (58%) than Garry. His 1.32% knockdown rate in the 11-fight sample also means bonafide power, knocking out the likes of Vicente Luque and Mike Perry. Neal's win over 170-pound title challenger Belal Muhammad has aged like fine wine.

We saw in last week's main event that UFC doesn't always get what they want in these prospect vs. veteran showcases. At this stage, Neal's striking efficiency against top-10 competition for years is comparable to Garry's against bums -- Rodriguez not withstanding. There's no way this line should be as wide as it is.

Betting Verdict

• If you bet MMA fights for value, chances are that Ian Garry likely won't find your card anytime soon. I've got him at 58.2% odds to win this fight, but his FanDuel odds imply a 71.8% chance. It's Neal (+194) or pass.
  • Surprisingly, I'm showing the most value on "Handz of Steel" to win by decision. I've got Neal's points prop at +340 compared to +700 on FanDuel.
• All in all, my model is pretty stumped awarding a 51.1% chance this fight ends early. I don't have a strong lean, either. Garry has a 50.0% decision rate against inferior competition; I don't think he'll be the first to knock out Geoff's elite chin and defense.

DFS Verdict

• I'm punting to the basement with Neal ($11) in hopes he simply equals Magny's DFS result. Garry was limited to 86.6 FanDuel points by the veteran, who matched up to the striker much worse.

Robert Whittaker vs. Paulo Costa

Middleweight (185 Pounds)

It's strange these career trajectories have met in 2024 well outside the title picture.

Former 185-pound champ Robert Whittaker is just 33, and many were expecting he'd float near the top his entire career. However, a disappointing, second-round loss to Dricus du Plessis has left him on the outside for the time being. "The Reaper" is a phenomenal technical striker with a +1.08 SSR, and his 82% takedown D has largely kept him there. Whittaker's lack of grappling never saw him find a way around the Israel Adesanya puzzle, but he's still among the best at middleweight.

I'm not sure Paulo Costa is. Costa's incredible frame for this division initially thrust him into a title shot, but he's not actually made an impactful statement in eight years. All four of Costa's wins since 2016 were all at least 35 years old when they fought and have since retired. His only bouts with current ranked 185ers, Adesanya and Marvin Vettori (9-4-1 UFC), both ended in lopsided losses.

Costa's fearlessness has allowed him to land 6.50 significant strikes per minute with phenomenal 60% accuracy, but his 47% striking D has gotten the best of him against higher-level opponents. His +0.12 SSR is miniscule for such elite offensive metrics.

"The Eraser" is also in perpetual contract disputes and has only fought once at middleweight since the start of 2021. It was a sloppy decision win over 38-year-old Luke Rockhold in 2022.

Whittaker's upset loss to the champion aside, he's still recently turned back top-10 fighters like Vettori and Jared Cannonier. Costa is likely a knockout-or-bust proposition in this fight, and the 32-year-old just doesn't have a knockdown rate (0.72%) that inspires much hope for one.

Betting Verdict

• My model can only assign Whittaker so much win equity when he's graded with a fairly low chance to finish Costa (13.1%), but I still have him winning 57.4% of the time and feel supremely confident about that.
  • Whittaker competed with Adesanya and destroyed Vettori. All anecdotal evidence points to him being a superior striker to Costa when both really don't grapple.
• I've got this fight at 70.5% likely to go the distance, leaving an edge compared to the -128 odds on FanDuel.
  • Whittaker's decision prop (+120) alone just doesn't show value when I have it at +125.

DFS Verdict

• Whittaker ($21) isn't a knockout artist at this stage, and his durability failing him in the du Plessis fight is a potential concern. He's fine in flex spots, but I wouldn't be surprised if this fight isn't super impactful in DFS.

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Ilia Topuria

Featherweight (145 Pounds)
Five-Round Title Fight

For the first time since the early makings of his trilogy with Max Holloway, Alexander Volkanovski is no prohibitive favorite to defend his 145-pound throne.

Volk is now 35 years old -- the magic age which fighters at 35 or older facing someone younger than 35 are 4-31-1 in the last 36 UFC title fights fitting that description. However, it's not like the dominant champion showed any cracks defending this belt last July against Yair Rodriguez, scoring a fourth-round finish. He's still got an unbelievable +2.77 SSR at a championship level, and he's added 1.84 takedowns per 15 with solid wrestling defense (70%) of his own.

The concerns for him stem from two losses in his last three fights to Islam Makhachev, the undefeated 155-pound champ. It was always a tall task for Volk to win at the higher weight class, but the concerns around the second fight -- a loss by KO that featured some concerning, odd comments after the fact -- are what has folks believing that Ilia Topuria might take this belt.

Topuria's personal confidence is certainly high, and it should be after he absolutely ran through Josh Emmett and Bryce Mitchell inside the featherweight rankings. He posted a +65 striking differential on Emmett, and he submitted the high-level grappler, Mitchell, in the second round. He's posted a quality +1.39 SSR himself with submission danger (1.5 attempts per 15) that Volkanovski has frankly never shown.

Volkanovski has been one of my favorite fighters since his rise past Holloway in 2019. I've been there every step of the way enough to claim Topuria is a real threat -- unlike Rodriguez or a soon-to-be-retired Chan Sung Jung posed. Topuria's speed, similar stature, and 92% takedown defense will keep him competitive in this fight.

From my model's perspective, Volkanovski is 77.1% projected to win the distance striking differential, but Topuria's weighted grappling edge is 55.1%. Add in the age concerns and Topuria's recent advantage in terms finishing danger, this is a razor-close fight where no outcome would surprise me.

Betting Verdict

• This fight is lined appropriately, per the model. I've got Topuria at 50.3% likely to win compared to Volkanovski's 49.7%. There's no substantial moneyline value here.
  • Topuria's inside-the-distance prop (+170) is showing value, though. I've got it at +105 with very little decision equity in his direction given the striking discrepancy.
• I've also got this fight -190 to end inside the distance compared to -174 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

DFS Verdict

• With such heavy odds to end inside the distance, I'm not sure this fight is worthy of the elevated salaries on both sides to account for a bump in scoring volume. I see this as a fight to pick an individual side, and I've got Topuria ($18) finishing the fight early 48.5% of the time compared to Volkanovski ($19) just 17.4% of the time.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.