Today's Best NFL Bets and Player Props for Week 9

An AFC Championship preview headlines the Week 9 NFL slate, but we have quite a few home teams that are already in a near-must-win position as their divisional races take shape. Will any of these "bottom dwellers" as short home underdogs cash, either?

Additionally, don't forget to check out FanDuel Research's NFL player prop projections to see what we project from each player across key statistical categories.

Which value remains on the board in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds? Let's check it out.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Today's Best NFL Betting Picks

Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Moneyline (+128)

If one play swung this line at least four points, there's probably value here, right?

The Cincinnati Bengals' loss to the previously winless New York Jets was pretty ugly, and their defense won't get better with Trey Hendrickson (hip) doubtful to play in this one. The Chicago Bears are greatly impacted by injuries, too, though. Their injury report lists them without D'Andre Swift (groin) and Roschon Johnson (back) when the Jets' key to success was their run game.

Joe Flacco (shoulder) is also trending in the right direction to potentially shred a Bears secondary missing Kyler Gordon and Jaylon Johnson on injured reserve. They allowed Tyler Huntley to post 0.30 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db) last week, per NFL's Next Gen Stats.

At maximum desperation to move to 4-5 and keep pace with the Baltimore Ravens, Flacco is the better quarterback. Caleb Williams (-0.03 EPA/db) has been largely inaccurate in 2025. In a "last score wins" type of environment where Chicago might struggle to run the ball, I trust the veteran.

San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants

Christian McCaffrey Over 132.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards (-112)

Christian McCaffrey could have a day.

CMC has averaged 145.8 scrimmage yards per game in the San Francisco 49ers five wins, so his prop is extremely corollary with them sitting as a 2.5-point favorite. A lot of those efforts came in less advantageous situations than this, too.

With George Kittle back as an impactful blocker, McCaffrey showed he isn't the reason for low rushing totals with 129 rushing yards against the Atlanta Falcons, who are 25th in numberFire's schedule-adjusted rush defense rankings. The New York Giants? They are dead last in that same set of rankings.

New York has also allowed the 9th-most catches (36) and 12th-most targets (45) to RBs out of the backfield.

FanDuel Research's NFL player prop projections aren't typically bearish on bloated star lines, but at 133.9 median scrimmage yards, McCaffrey seems primed for a huge day. If New York stays close, that should only help matters.

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers

Colts Over 26.5 Points (-148)
DK Metcalf Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

I gave this out at -122 in our Week 9 NFL expert picks, and I'm still willing to pay the juice to get a key scoring number of 27.

With the way the Indianapolis Colts are playing, though, it might not matter. Indianapolis is averaging 0.31 Net Expected Points (NEP; nF's EPA metric) per play on offense. The next-best unit in the NFL is at 0.21. They've flatly dominated entering this matchup with the reeling Pittsburgh Steelers defense.

Cam Heyward's attempts to rally the troops might fall short simply because this team doesn't have the pieces in the secondary, and it's getting thinner. Per Pittsburgh's injury report, three projected secondary starters are doubtful at best.

As it stands, the Steelers are nF's 15th-ranked rush defense, and they're 24th against the pass. Though they have a slightly above-average chance to contain Jonathan Taylor, the weapons in this offense are more than capable of pushing the Colts to be the third straight Pittsburgh opponent to crest 33 points.

The Steelers will likely need D.K. Metcalf to keep pace, though.

Really, Metcalf is the one vertical target in this Pittsburgh passing game. He had 42.6% of the team's air yards in the last five weeks, and it just hasn't translated to the yardage column.

The most vulnerable part of the Colts' defense is deep. Indianapolis is sixth-worst in EPA/db allowed on throws at least 20 yards downfield (0.76). DK has seen 36.4% of the Steelers' deep targets in the aforementioned period, and he has caught a pass of at least 24 yards in six of his eight games this year.

Our projections' median yardage for Metcalf (66.4) would normally imply closer to -259 odds on this prop.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.