Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: Betting Picks and Prediction for Game 2

As 4.5-point underdogs in Game 1, the Minnesota Timberwolves walked into the Mile High City and skunked the Denver Nuggets, 106-99. After opening as underdogs to win the series (+164), the T-Wolves are now favored to advance to the Western Conference Finals (-132), per FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA playoff odds.

Minnesota will be in the underdog role once again for Monday's Game 2. Can the Wolves pull off another unexpected win, or will the Nuggets knot the series at 1-1?

Let's dive into FanDuel's NBA odds for Game 2 along with a statistical breakdown and an enticing game line.

All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NBA Playoffs Betting

Timberwolves-Nuggets Betting Odds

Date and Time: Monday, May 6th at 10:00 p.m. ET

Spread: Nuggets -5.5 (-112)

Total: 207.5

Moneyline:

• Timberwolves: +198
• Nuggets: -240

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Adjusted offensive/defensive ratings and pace via DunksAndThrees.

• Timberwolves:
  • nERD: 70.9 (3rd)
  • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 115.0 (17th)
  • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 108.9 (1st)
  • Pace: 97.7 (22nd)
  • Against-the-Spread Record: 40-41-1
• Nuggets:
  • nERD: 65.9 (4th)
  • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 118.3 (4th)
  • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 112.9 (9th)
  • Pace: 97.1 (27th)
  • Against-the-Spread Record: 37-42-3

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Best Bet

Timberwolves +5.5 (-108)

Despite Minnesota emerging victorious from Game 1, the point spread is even larger in Denver's favor in Game 2 at -5.5. This pick is quite simple in my eyes. The Timberwolves just covered and won as a 4.5-point dog. They should be able to cover again tonight.

Will Minnesota win it outright, though? I'm not bold enough to take this side even with 51% of moneyline picks on FanDuel Sportsbook on the Wolves. It makes sense, though, as the T'Wolves' +198 moneyline odds are very intriguing.

Instead, I'm backing the T-Wolves to cover the spread. Several models have Minnesota keeping it close. This includes numberFire forecasting about a 107-103 finish in favor of the Nuggets. Massey Ratings also has Denver winning by only two points (108-106).

In five head-to-head matchups this season between these two teams (including Game 1), the Timberwolves are 4-1 against the spread (ATS). Minnesota has won two of three contests in Denver.

I'm taking the same side as the public for this one as about 64% of spread picks are on the Wolves. I believe Minnesota can find success in the same ways they did in Game 1. Let's look at some of the matchups.

The T-Wolves won the rebounding battle by 8 boards and had a 10-point advantage in the painted area on Saturday. Both offenses were efficient, with Minnesota carrying a 52.4% field goal percentage (FG%) and 40.7% three-point percentage. The Nuggets weren't far behind, making 46.7% of their field goals and 41.9% of their three-point attempts.

When Denver has lost the battle of the glass in the playoffs, they are 0-2. They have also been outscored in the paint in four of six postseason games. The Nuggets are giving up 56.3 points in the paint per game in the playoffs, compared to their regular-season average of 50.8 (11th-most).

In the regular season, Minnesota had the 5th-highest defensive rebounding percentage while Denver had the 15th-highest mark. The T-Wolves have also given up an average of only 40.0 points in the paint in the postseason. They were already elite in this category, surrendering only 45.7 points in the paint per game in the regular season (second-fewest). Minnesota's paint defense has been exceptional, and I expect that to continue.

We can't forget Anthony Edwards' absurd play thus far. The blooming superstar has posted 33.4 points per game (PPG) in the playoffs and just logged 43 points in Game 1. The Minnesota offense is rolling as four key contributors are among the 11 highest individual offensive ratings so far in the NBA playoffs.

The T-Wolves are looking like a true championship contender, with the third-shortest odds to win the NBA Finals (+600). With the T-Wolves' advantages in the rebounding and paint departments, give me Minnesota to cover against the Nuggets yet again.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.