Thunder vs. Mavericks: Betting Picks and Prediction for Game 6

Defense has been the theme of the Oklahoma City Thunder against the Dallas Mavericks. The Thunder's defense has shined all postseason, holding the lowest rating among active teams. The Mavericks has also surprised, taking their regular-season rating of 114.9 to 109.7 (fourth-best among active teams). This has led to the under being a consistent winner as it's hit in four of five games in this series.

Dallas also won their second road game of the series in Game 5, taking a 3-2 lead. After going 1-1 in their last home stand, will the Mavericks wrap up the series with a win? Oklahoma City has a tall task ahead as they must win their second road game as underdogs on Saturday. If not, the Thunder's season will be wrapped up with bitter disappointment.

Which side will prevail in Game 6. Here's a deep dive into the matchup, capped by the most enticing game line offered by FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA odds.

All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NBA Playoffs Betting

Thunder-Mavericks Betting Odds

Date and Time: Saturday, May 18th at 8:00 p.m. ET

Spread: Mavericks -4 (-106)

Total: 209.5

Moneyline:

• Thunder: +146
• Mavericks: -174

Thunder vs. Mavericks Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Adjusted offensive/defensive ratings and pace via DunksAndThrees.

• Thunder:
  • nERD: 73.1 (2nd)
  • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 118.3 (3rd)
  • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 111.5 (4th)
  • Pace: 100.8 (5th)
  • Against-the-Spread Record: 46-35-1
• Mavericks:
  • nERD: 57.1 (12th)
  • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 117.5 (7th)
  • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 115.3 (18th)
  • Pace: 100.4 (8th)
  • Against-the-Spread Record: 48-34

Thunder vs. Mavericks Best Bet

Under 209.5 (-112)

The total has steadily declined as this series has advanced. In Game 1, the total was set at 218.5 and now here we are at 209.5. This number has decreased in every single game of the series. Of course, it was going to adjust when the under continues to hit time and time again.

Even with the total now under 210, I'm still comfortable taking the under. Both teams are top four in defensive rating among active teams. As previously mentioned, the Mavericks' defense has been like night and day in the playoffs. I don't think this is a fluke either; let's dive into the advanced stats.

The puzzling piece of this series has been the performance of Kyrie Irving. Despite carrying the second-highest usage rate on the team in the playoffs (22.2%), Kyrie is averaging only 14.4 PPG in this series. He totaled 25.6 PPG in the regular season...that's a huge drop off. After averaging 19.5 shots per game in the regular season, Irving has also attempted only 12.2 field goals per contest against the Thunder.

Luguentz Dort has been a lockdown defender in the playoffs, holding opponents to a 25.0 FG% when in isolation (second-lowest among active players). This is a major reason why Kyrie and Luka Doncic have been underwhelming at times.

This isn't the only reason for Irving's declined scoring numbers, though. Kyrie has been an excellent defender in the playoffs. You read that right; the guard known for his elite scoring has been shining on defense. Irving has held opponents to a 14.3 FG% in isolation (lowest mark in the playoffs). This kind of effort of defense has probably also led to Kyrie taking fewer shots.

He's not the only Dallas defender playing a high level. Derrick Jones Jr. has also held opposing players to a 21.4 FG% in isolation (second-lowest mark in postseason).

After playing for 17.5 minutes per game in the first round of the playoffs, Oklahoma City's Cason Wallace has seen his playing time increase to 21.0 minutes per game in this series, and he had his highest mark yet of the postseason at 27 minutes in Game 5. It's with good reason as opponents have a 27.3 FG% in isolation against Wallace (fifth-lowest among active players).

The moral of the story: each team has defenders in the backcourt defending at absurd levels. Consider the fact that each team has their top two scorers manning guard and wing spots. If each team has players defending at a high level for these positions, chances are the scoring totals will be lower.

These squads are also giving up the top two fewest points in the paint among active teams. This has been an issue for OKC, who scored the seventh-most points in paint during the regular season. The Thunder are carrying the lowest three-point percentage allowed, and the Mavericks shot the third-most threes during the regular season.

Across the board, these defenses are shining in the playoffs. I don't expect that to change in Game 6. Give me under 209.5 points.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.