The Masters: Betting Picks, Win Simulations, Course History, and Key Stats

Brandon Gdula
Brandon Gdula@gdula13
The Masters: Betting Picks, Win Simulations, Course History, and Key Stats

Major season kicks off this week with the Masters at Augusta National.

With the green jacket on the line at the historic course, all eyes are on this week's field.

Here's all you need to know for this week.

Augusta National Course Info

All course data from GCSAA unless otherwise noted.

  • Par: 72
  • Distance: 7,545 yards (around 250 yards longer than the average par 72)
  • Average Fairway Width: 50.7 yards (85th of 88 courses)
  • Average Green Size: 6,486 square feet (slightly large)
  • Green Type: Bentgrass
  • Stimpmeter: N/A
  • Recent Winning Scores: -12, -10, -10, -20*, -13
  • Recent Cut Lines: +3, +4, +3, Even*, +3

Augusta National Course Key Stats

Augusta National is an all-around test. Inaccuracy off the tee is forgivable because the fairways are wide and missing fairways isn't very penalizing.

Other than that, there isn't much room for error.

The par 4s are brutal, yet so are the par 3s and (to a lesser degree) par 5s.

It's ranked as the toughest course to putt at from over 15 feet two straight years, per datagolf's course table tool.

Golfers need to hit their irons well and be able to get up-and-down: winning scores tend to hover around 12-under par.

Best Golfers at Augusta National

These golfers have the best strokes gained numbers in recent years at this course.

FanDuel Salary
Course SG:T/Rd
Course SG:T
Top 25s
Missed Cuts
Jon Rahm$12,2002.3847.6151440
Scottie Scheffler$13,0002.2235.5341240
Hideki Matsuyama$11,1001.7334.6151140
Xander Schauffele$10,9001.8733.6350341
Cameron Smith$9,9001.5330.6150330
Dustin Johnson$9,8001.7030.5551231
Patrick Reed$9,1001.4829.6150330
View Full Table

The Masters Win Simulations

Here's what my model -- based on long-term scoring trends, recency adjustments, and field-strength weighting -- has to say about this week's event.

FanDuel Salary
Made Cut%
Scottie Scheffler$13,00015.4%58.1%75.7%92.6%
Xander Schauffele$10,9007.0%40.5%60.2%87.1%
Rory McIlroy$11,8006.3%38.5%58.8%86.4%
Jon Rahm$12,2005.9%36.3%56.1%85.3%
Hideki Matsuyama$11,1003.0%26.5%45.7%80.8%
Joaquin Niemann$10,4002.8%25.6%44.4%79.9%
Ludvig Aberg$10,8002.7%24.8%43.3%79.4%
View Full Table

The Masters Betting Picks to Target

These picks stand out relative to their FanDuel Sportsbook golf betting odds based on my win simulation model and/or my overall stats model, which accounts for the most important stats for this week's event. All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds unless otherwise noted.

Xander Schauffele

To Win (+1400)
To Finish Top 10 (+140)

Xander Schauffele has a lot going for him. As usual. Over each golfer's last 50 rounds, Schauffele owns a true strokes gained average of +2.37, which is 0.27 shots clear of anyone other than Scottie Scheffler (+2.81) in that span.

Schauffele ranks top-eight in all three of the tee-to-green stats in that span, and he's 21st in putting over the last 50 rounds.

In the 2024 PGA Tour season, Schauffele ranks in the 64th percentile in putting from within 15 feet but the 23rd percentile on putts longer than that.

Regression could be coming, and Schauffele's form at Augusta National includes four top-20s in six starts including two top-3s.

Joaquin Niemann

To Win (+2800)
To Finish Top 10 (+230)

Joaquin Niemann's work on the LIV Tour is absolutely worth noting.

Niemann, over the last six months, has racked up 35 rounds -- same as both Scheffler and Schauffele.

In that span, Scheffler is at a +3.27 true strokes gained per round average with Schuaffele at +2.21. Niemann is third in that sample at a +2.10.

In 2024 on the LIV Tour, Niemann is gaining 1.38 strokes gained approach per round and 0.91 off the tee, via Rick Gehman. His ball-striking has long made him an analytics favorite, and the rest of the game is there for him, too.

Niemann's results at the Masters include three made cuts in four starts with a T16 last year. He's putted well on these greens the last three years, as well.

Matt Fitzpatrick

To Win (+4000)
To Finish Top 10 (+300)

Fitzpatrick has two straight top-15 finishes at Augusta and has made eight consecutive cuts dating back to 2016 at The Masters.

He consistently gains strokes off the tee and with his approach play, and last year, his putting improved greatly on these fast greens.

Fitzpatrick comes into this event with two straight top-10 results that were centered on great putting, but the ball-striking has been solid, as well. And he's an 85th-percentile putter from within 15 feet, so we don't have to worry much about putting luck.

Tommy Fleetwood

To Win (+5000)
To Finish Top 10 (+330)

Fleetwood has made six of seven cuts at Augusta in his career and has three top-20 results, as well.

His form is definitely not flawless, but that's why the number is 50/1.

Fleetwood just finished T7 at the Valero Texas Open and won the Dubai Invitational in January.

His all-around game is what helps him play well at Augusta.

Sahith Theegala

To Win (+5500)
To Finish Top 20 (+160)

Theegala debuted at Augusta National last year with a solo 9th-place finish while gaining strokes in all four facets plus gaining distance and fairways on the field.

He's kept flirting with high-end results since a win at the Fortinet Championship in September.

Theegala's putter can get hot (but it's stabilized by 83rd-percentile putting from within 15 feet), and so can the irons.

While 55/1 would be a great return on a win, finishing positions on Theegala still show value.

Russell Henley

To Win (+6500)
To Finish Top 20 (+160)

Russell Henley is fresh off of a solo 4th at the Valero Texas Open after missing the cut at THE PLAYERS Championship. That was after a T4 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Henley has shown up well at Augusta National, too. He was T4 last year and has now finished T31 or better in six consecutive years plus top-15 or better in three of four.

The putting from within 15 feet puts him in the 85th percentile this year among Tour players, and the irons and short game are good enough to make up for a lack of driving distance.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.