Strikeout Props to Target for Thursday 5/23/24

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-132)

After finishing third in Cy Young voting last season, Kevin Gausman's play has declined across the board. He has a 4.89 ERA and 1.512 WHIP compared to a 3.16 ERA and 1.178 WHIP in 2023. Several advanced stats show Gausman could not be too far off from last season's level, though. He's touting a 3.62 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) and 3.46 expected fielder independent pitching (xFIP) compared to 3.34 and 3.22 from last season.

His strikeout percentage (K%) has dropped from 31.1% (93rd percentile) to 22.6% (51st percentile). But Gausman is beginning to show signs of his usual K prowess, reaching a 30.0 K% in two of his last three starts. He's also logging 6.7 strikeouts per start during the three-game span compared to only 3.8 Ks per outing over his first six starts of the season.

Tonight's opponent -- the Detroit Tigers -- have the eighth-highest K% in baseball. Gausman's slider usage jumped to 16.7% in his most recent start compared to his season average of 10.4%. I expect the vet pitcher to keep leaning on this pitch as the Tigers have the 10th-fewest runs above average when facing sliders. Plus, the slider has the highest whiff rate among his pitches (37.9%).

The K production is on the climb for Gausman, and Detroit has a high K% and has even totaled 10.0 strikeouts per game over their last two. With the Toronto Blue Jays' ace warming up, I'm no longer hesitant to back the over for Gausman's strikeout total.

Mike Clevinger Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-108)

Mike Clevinger had a late debut for the 2024 season, throwing his first pitch on May 6th. The Chicago White Sox's veteran right-hander has only three starts, so pretty much any stat is a small sample size.

I'm still comfortable in taking under 4.5 Ks for Clevinger against the Baltimore Orioles. He finished in the bottom 23% and 27% of K% over the last two seasons. Clevinger's strikeout rate is still roughly in the same ballpark at 18.2% compared to 18.8% and 20.0% from his previous two seasons.

After putting up a donut for strikeouts in his season debut, Clevinger has recorded five Ks in back-to-back appearances. The O's have the 12th-lowest K% in the MLB, and they've been even more stingy over the last six games with 5.5 strikeouts per game (season average is 8.0).

Clevinger features three heavily used pitches: a fastball, slider, and changeup. Baltimore is in the top half of runs above average against each pitch. Chicago's hurler has also used his changeup more than usual thus far with a 23.4% usage rate compared to 12.8% in 2023. The Orioles are raking against changeups with the third-most runs above average.

One of Clevinger's few strengths has been limited hard contact; he was in the 72nd percentile of the category last season and has improved through three starts. If any team can still slug against Clevinger, it's Baltimore. The O's have the MLB's highest slugging percentage and isolated power (ISO) paired with the third-highest hard-hit percentage.

We've yet to see Clevinger finish five innings of work in 2024. I don't expect that to change against the Orioles. The under is even more likely with a brief appearance looking imminent.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.