Strikeout Prop Bets to Target for Thursday 5/2/24

Riley Thomas•_riley8

15d

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Nathan Eovaldi Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-112)

The Texas Rangers' Nathan Eovaldi is off to an exceptional start in the strikeout category. He currently ranks in the 62nd percentile of strikeout percentage (K%), which would tie the second-best mark of his 13-year career.

Eovaldi has reached at least six strikeouts in four of his six appearances. Plus, he's stacked eight Ks in three of six starts. However, the Washington Nationals have been a tough team to strike out.

Washington has the 11th-lowest K% while totaling the 11th-fewest strikeouts per game (7.8). The Nats' strikeout numbers have been even better over their last five games, averaging 5.6 Ks per game in that time. They've totaled only three strikeouts in two of the last three contests. This will not be an easy task for Eovaldi.

The Rangers' starter has an impressive whiff percentage (83rd percentile) and chase rate (77th percentile). However, the Nationals also have solid marks in these categories. Eovaldi's best chance of getting Ks will likely be making Washington chase; they have the 7th-lowest swinging-strike percentage compared to the 11th-highest chase rate.

Ultimately, I'm comfortable taking the under for Eovaldi's total Ks at this line of 5.5. The Nationals are totaling only 4.0 Ks per game in this series and are among the top half in hard-hit percentage. Why does this matter? One of Eovaldi's weaknesses is sitting in the bottom 43% in hard-hit percentage. Washington has the bats to potentially score some runs on Texas' starter, as well, which could result in a shorter outing for Eovaldi.

Spencer Arrighetti Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+116)

Two of the best bat-to-ball offenses in baseball meet in the Cleveland Guardians-Houston Astros clash. In the 2023 season, the Guardians had the lowest K% in the MLB at 18.7%, and the Astros weren't far behind with the third-lowest mark (19.8%).

Not much has changed since last year. Cleveland has a 19.7 K% (fifth-lowest) while Houston is carrying a 16.7 K% (lowest). Either starter on the mound -- Logan Allen and Spencer Arrighetti -- could be bound to carry a low strikeout total.

Allen is in the bottom 31% of K%, and Arrighetti is making only his fourth start in the majors as Houston's third-best prospect.

The big concern for Arrighetti is making a deep enough start to go over 4.5 Ks. Despite averaging 85.3 pitches each start, he hasn't gone deeper than four innings through three outings. That's not ideal, but Arrighetti has a 25.9 K% (69th percentile). Will he do enough for the over?

I believe the answer is yes. He is fresh off a rough showing, giving up four runs in 3.2 innings. But Arrighetti still managed to reach seven strikeouts in the brief appearance, and he also got up to 90 pitches, his most of the year. So if he can be a little more efficient, he can go deeper into today's contest.

Cleveland's strikeouts are also up of late. They are averaging 8.8 Ks over their last five contests compared to their season average of 7.6. The Guardians are logging 10.5 strikeouts per game in this series.

Considering Arrighetti's strikeout success thus far, I'm backing the over.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.