MLB

Strikeout Prop Bets to Target for Thursday 4/11/24

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8
Strikeout Prop Bets to Target for Thursday 4/11/24

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Jon Gray Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-156)

Today's MLB slate features only six games, and bumpy weather crosses out some potential lines. For example, the Pittsburgh Pirates against the Philadelphia Phillies is expected to feature plenty of showers that could cause delays.

The Oakland Athletics against the Texas Rangers is one of the games in the clear with the two teams colliding in the domed Globe Life Field. Jon Gray's strikeout total stands out as quite high.

Usually pitchers who have K totals of 6.5 of higher have elite strikeout numbers, but that's not the case for Gray. He was in the bottom 37% in strikeout percentage (K%) last season and currently sits in the bottom 10% of the category. His chase rate, which was in the 83rd percentile in 2023, has plummeted to the bottom 8% this season.

Gray has also struggled through two starts, recording five total strikeouts and a 6.27 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). He hasn't even reached the 4th inning in a start yet this season. In three matchups against the A's last season, Gray averaged only 3.3 strikeouts per start in 2023.

There's a good chance that this line moves to 5.5 before the first pitch is thrown. For now, the under looks like the way to go for Gray's K total. He reached 7 strikeouts in only 8 of his 29 starts last season, providing even more confidence for this side.

Grayson Rodriguez Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+104)

There's a chance for some showers late in the Baltimore Orioles against the Boston Red Sox collision. However, it's expected to be clear early in the game, giving starters a fair chance of performing well. The forecast isn't gloomy enough to avoid this matchup. So which strikeout prop has the most enticing line?

Grayson Rodriguez had a solid rookie season, posting a 4.01 SIERA while ranking in the 61st percentile in K%. The 6-foot-5 right-hander has improved his play in 2024, carrying an elite 2.72 SIERA while ranking in the 87th percentile in K% following two starts. Rodriguez has also totaled 16 strikeouts thus far, good for an average of 8.0 per start.

Baltimore's starter gets a favorable matchup against the Red Sox, who have the third-highest K%. Rodriguez's whiff rate has spiked from the 52nd percentile last year to the 81st percentile early in the 2024 season. Boston is currently tied for the seventh-worst swinging-strike rate.

With that said, I'm going with the over in this one. Rodriguez has reached at least seven strikeouts in each of his first two starts, and dating back to the 2023 season, he has surpassed seven Ks in five of his past seven appearances.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.