Spurs vs. Thunder Western Finals Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for May 28

Spurs vs. Thunder Game Info

• Date: Thursday, May 28, 2026
• Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: Frost Bank Center -- San Antonio, Texas
• Coverage: NBC/Peacock

The Oklahoma City Thunder are slight 3.5-point underdogs in a decisive Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals against the San Antonio Spurs at Frost Bank Center on Thursday, tipping off at 8:30 p.m. ET on NBC/Peacock. The Thunder have a 3-2 lead in the series. The matchup has an over/under of 218.5.

Spurs vs. Thunder Odds & Spread

All NBA betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Spurs vs. Thunder Prediction & Pick

All NBA win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Spurs win (56.6%)

Spurs vs. Thunder Betting Trends

• The Spurs have covered the spread 43 times in 81 games with a set spread.
• The Thunder have 39 wins against the spread in 82 games this year.
• This season, 36 of the Spurs' games have gone over the point total.
• Thunder games this year have hit the over 54.9% of the time (45 out of 82 games with a set point total).
• San Antonio has covered the spread in a lower percentage of its home games than away games. It has covered 19 times in 40 games at home, and it has covered 24 times in 42 games on the road.
• The Spurs have gone over the total more often when playing at home, hitting the over in 18 of 40 home matchups (45%). In road games, they have hit the over in 18 of 42 games (42.9%).
• Oklahoma City has been better against the spread away (20-19-1) than at home (19-23-0) this season.
• In 2025-26 a lower percentage of the Thunder's games have finished above the over/under at home (52.4%, 22 of 42) than on the road (57.5%, 23 of 40).

Spurs Leaders

• Victor Wembanyama averages 25 points, 11.5 boards and 3.1 assists.
• De'Aaron Fox averages 18.6 points, 3.8 boards and 6.2 assists.
• Stephon Castle's numbers on the season are 16.6 points, 5.3 boards and 7.4 assists per contest, shooting 47.1% from the floor and 33.2% from beyond the arc, with an average of 1.2 made 3-pointers.
• Keldon Johnson is averaging 13.2 points, 5.4 rebounds and 1.4 assists. At the other end, he averages 0.6 steals and 0.1 blocked shots.
• Julian Champagnie averages 11.1 points, 5.8 rebounds and 1.5 assists, shooting 43.7% from the field and 38.1% from beyond the arc, with 2.4 made treys per contest.

Thunder Leaders

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averages 31.1 points for the Thunder, plus 4.3 rebounds and 6.6 assists.
• Chet Holmgren averages 17.1 points, 8.9 rebounds and 1.7 assists. He is also sinking 55.7% of his shots from the field and 36.2% from beyond the arc, with 1.3 treys per contest.
• Cason Wallace averages 8.6 points, 3.1 boards and 2.6 assists. He is sinking 43.2% of his shots from the field and 35.1% from 3-point range, with 1.3 treys per contest.
• The Thunder are receiving 9.2 points, 9.4 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game from Isaiah Hartenstein.
• Isaiah Joe averages 11.1 points, 2.5 rebounds and 1.3 assists. He is sinking 45.5% of his shots from the floor and 42.3% from beyond the arc (10th in NBA), with 2.5 treys per contest.

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