Goal.com back Oyarzabal as their first goalscorer pick at +270: "He also struck a second-minute opener against Peru last time out. Oyarzabal netted first inside the opening 15 minutes in two of Spain's six World Cup qualifying matches. His six goals in qualifying came at a rate of one every 74 minutes."

The structural case is unassailable. WhoScored's model gives him the highest goal probability in the match at 65.74%, Oddschecker confirm he has "scored in each of his last four outings," and RotoWire are explicit: "Oyarzabal takes the penalties and plays on the last shoulder of the back line. Against a defense this overmatched he will see more than one clean chance, plus the live possibility of a spot kick. In a 4-0, a scorer prop on the penalty man is close to free money." With 27 goals in 47 appearances for club and country in 2025-26 — and a scoring rate in WC qualifying that rivals any striker in the tournament — Oyarzabal at +270 to score first is the clearest bet on the opening day slate.

Racing Post make Torres their top anytime pick and the reasoning directly addresses the Yamal situation: "Ferran Torres scored twice as Spain routed Costa Rica 7-0 in their World Cup opener four years ago and the Barcelona forward could get on the scoresheet against Cape Verde. Torres, who averaged a goal every 123 minutes in La Liga in 2025-26, is likely to start in the absence of club teammate Lamine Yamal, and he can make the most of his opportunity."

The historical precedent is the most compelling element: Torres scored twice in Spain's last World Cup opener — a 7-0 destruction of Costa Rica in 2022. He has form, familiarity with this exact big-game context, and now certainty of a starting role. Racing Post add that he "dislodged Robert Lewandowski as Barcelona's main striker" this season with 16 La Liga goals — arriving at this World Cup in arguably the best form of his career. At +370 first scorer for a confirmed starter with direct World Cup opener precedent, this is the tournament's best-value first goalscorer bet beyond Oyarzabal.

Baena is confirmed in the starting XI replacing Williams on the left flank. With Yamal also absent, he is no longer a rotation option — he is one of three confirmed attacking starters. SportsBettingDime had already highlighted: "The fact that two of Spain's top scorers — Yamal and Williams — are not likely to start bolsters this pick." He now starts in a front three of Torres, Oyarzabal and Baena against a Cabo Verde side whose only player in a top-five European league is a centre-back. In a projected 4-0 win, the left winger scoring at some point across 90 minutes carries a realistic probability. At +600 first scorer (+140 anytime), Baena is the pick for those seeking genuine plus-money returns from a confirmed Spain starter in the most one-sided Group H match of the opening round.

Yamal is confirmed on the bench, not absent from the squad. SI.com had backed him at "+400 to score the first goal" and at "-115 anytime." Fox Sports had him at -105 anytime. If Spain are leading 3-0 at half-time and bring Yamal on for 30 minutes, he still has a genuine scoring window.

Verdict: Yamal as a sub is not a first goalscorer play — he can't score first if he comes on at 60 minutes. His anytime odds (still around -105 to -115) remain live as a second-half sub wager only if he enters the game. Do not include in first goalscorer bets. If you want Yamal exposure, wait until confirmed sub time and check live anytime odds.

Goal.com top first scorer pick. WhoScored 65.74% probability — highest of any player. Penalty taker. Scored inside opening 15 mins in 2 of 6 WC qualifiers. Struck a second-minute opener against Peru. 27 goals in 47 club and country appearances 2025-26. In a 4-0 projected result, the penalty taker and primary finisher scoring first is the structural pick.