Saibari is the first goalscorer favourite and rightfully so. He opened the scoring against Brazil — a significantly stronger defensive unit than Scotland's Hanley and Hendry — and his central striker positioning means all of Morocco's wide and midfield creativity funnels toward him as the primary finishing reference. At +500, the implied probability of ~17% is fair for the first goal specifically, and Morocco's expected game script (early possession dominance, pressure on Scotland's backline) creates exactly the conditions that produced his Brazil opener.

The key insight from Covers.com: Brahim Diaz was exactly tied with Saibari for shots and shots on target against Brazil — both had three — but only Saibari scored. This means Diaz's threat level is essentially equivalent, yet his first goal odds (~+600) are higher than Saibari's (+500). The additional layer: Covers.com explicitly identifies Diaz as Morocco's likely penalty taker. Any foul on a Moroccan attacker inside Scotland's box routes directly to a Brahim Diaz first goal from 12 yards — a pathway that Saibari doesn't have as the primary spot-kick taker.

If Scotland score first tonight — the major upset scenario — the opener almost certainly goes through McGinn. He scored the only Scottish goal vs Haiti via a deflected set piece, is the primary dead-ball delivery man, and can also arrive late in the box from a central midfield starting position. At ~+1000, a $5 bet returns $55 total. This is not a probability-first bet — it's for Scotland fans who want meaningful financial upside to match their emotional investment in the Tartan Army's historic push for the knockout stage. A Scotland first goal in this match would be one of the most memorable moments at this World Cup, and McGinn is the player most likely to score it.