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CasinoSao Paulo Grand Prix Win Simulations: Continued Value on Ferrari
The hierarchy at the front of the Formula 1 field has become more clear in recent weeks.
It's Max Verstappen at the top. There's no use in fighting it. Accept the darkness. Embrace it.
After him, you've got Lewis Hamilton and Lando Norris exchanging blows with one -- or both -- on the podium in five straight races.
Those three are justifiably the favorites to podium for this week's Sao Paulo Grand Prix in FanDuel Sportsbook's Formula 1 betting odds. The bookmakers have that correct.
But it feels like Ferrari may still be undervalued.
If you count the Hamilton disqualification in Austin, a Ferrari has been on the podium in four of the past six races. Even if you don't count the disqualification, it's still three of the past six. And they had a podium two races before that stretch, as well. They've at least been in the hunt, even if they haven't had the upside of the two Brits.
As a result, my model is high on them once again prior to practice in Brazil.
Driver | Win Sims | Podium | Top 6 | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | 76.4% | 88.4% | 88.5% | 88.5% |
| Lando Norris | 6.5% | 51.6% | 81.8% | 86.4% |
| Lewis Hamilton | 4.3% | 38.9% | 75.8% | 86.2% |
| Charles Leclerc | 4.3% | 38.4% | 75.5% | 86.0% |
| Carlos Sainz | 3.2% | 27.1% | 68.2% | 86.4% |
| Sergio Perez | 2.1% | 18.5% | 55.8% | 83.1% |
| George Russell | 1.8% | 17.9% | 54.3% | 83.4% |
At those marks for Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz, both grade out with higher podium odds than their implied odds at FanDuel Sportsbook (+350 and +470, respectively).
This has been the case often in the second half of the season. And -- as mentioned -- Ferrari has converted on that often enough for it to not be a terrible approach.
Several recent tracks have looked like bad fits for Ferrari prior to practice only for them to be competitive. As a result, I'm fine dipping my toes in the Ferrari waters, even if I think the sims should be a bit lower on them. There is also value on Leclerc to finish top six at -230 and Sainz at -190 if you'd rather go that route.
The two top-10 values are Daniel Ricciardo and Lance Stroll at +155 and +195, respectively. The latter may feel gross, but I don't vehemently object to either.
Ricciardo showed speed last week and finished seventh. His teammate, Yuki Tsunoda, had good pace, as well, meaning the AlphaTauri upgrades have been helpful. Ricciardo's race pace this year broadly hasn't been bad, thus why the model has his top-10 odds at 44.1%, up from 39.2% implied.
The gap for Stroll is a bit bigger (38.6% in the model versus 33.9% implied). Stroll and Aston Martin were hideous in Mexico, which is a big concern. Thus, if you throw up in your mouth here, I get it.
But Stroll did score points in Austin, the first race for a new batch of upgrades for Aston Martin. His race pace there was very nice, as well. So it's definitely a risk to bank on Stroll, given his form, but he's at least worth consideration in this market.
Which drivers do you want to bet for Sunday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest Formula 1 betting odds to see the full menu of options.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.