Premier League Betting Picks for Matchweek 17: Manchester United Are in Trouble

The Premier League keeps chugging along as we're in the midst of a busy stretch of the campaign.

When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this matchweek?

EPL Betting: Matchweek 17

Fulham at Newcastle (10 a.m. ET Saturday)

Newcastle Moneyline (-120)

There are reasons to be wary of a Newcastle side that's short-handed and fatigued, particularly with the Magpies having a quick turnaround following Wednesday's home defeat in the Champions League. But even with all that factored in, I still like Newcastle to take all three points against Fulham on Saturday.

Not only have Newcastle been outstanding at home in the league this campaign, but Fulham have been pretty poor on the road.

Going by FBRef's expected goal (xG) model, the Magpies have been the EPL's top home side, racking up a league-best home xG differential of +11.5. At St. James' Park, they've battered more talented sides than Fulham, including besting Manchester United and Chelsea by a combined xG tally of 4.8-1.0 over their last two home league matches.

Fulham, meanwhile, own the fourth-worst away xG differential (-8.5), and they've shipped nine goals across their last three road matches against sides currently in the top seven of the table.

While fatigue, injuries and suspensions are all a legit concern for the Magpies, it's not enough to push me off Newcastle's moneyline when it's -120 for a home game against one of the league's worst away sides.

Manchester United at Liverpool (11:30 a.m. ET Sunday)

Liverpool Halftime/Full-Time (-125)

I worry for Manchester United this weekend. They're in poor form, are short-handed, and spirits have to be pretty low after their Wednesday exit from Europe. Honestly, they're in a similar spot to Newcastle. But there are two big differences -- the opposition and the venue.

The last thing United need is a trip to Anfield to face rival Liverpool, but that's exactly what's coming on Sunday.

Liverpool mauled Manchester United at Anfield a year ago, winning 7-0. I'm not expecting things to be that bad, but I'm fully expecting a comfortable Liverpool win. Oddsmakers are, too, as the Reds are -320 moneyline favorites.

No matter which stat you look at, everything comes up Liverpool. The Reds have an xG differential of +12.4 and have been superb at home, netting 21 goals and conceding just 5 so far this campaign en route to winning all seven of their home EPL matches. United, on the other hand, have an xG differential of -1.1, including a -3.8 clip on the road. They've played three away games against sides currently in the top seven of the table and lost all three by a combined score of 6-1.

On top of all that, Bruno Fernandes is suspended for this match, and Luke Shaw and Harry Maguire both had to come off injured midweek versus Bayern.

While sports can be random, and there's a lot of variance in a low-event sport like soccer, it's really hard to see this going well for United. Anfield -- and Liverpool -- will smell blood, and I think Jurgen Klopp's side will come out of the gates looking to pounce early and bury a floundering United.

That has me looking at the first-half moneyline, which is -155. I don't mind that number, but I prefer taking Liverpool at -125 in the half-time/full-time market -- which is, for the most part, a way to bet on the first-half moneyline and get more bang for your buck (assuming Liverpool hold on in the second half and take all three points).

Player Props

Cole Palmer to Score or Assist (-120): Chelsea are difficult to trust -- I get it. But I love Palmer's chances of contributing to a goal in Saturday's home game against Sheffield United, a match where Cheslea are overwhelming -450 moneyline favorites.

The Blades might be the worst team in the EPL, and they've given up exactly five goals in two of their last three road matches, one of which was against lowly Burnley.

Palmer has five goals and two assists in nine EPL starts, and he paces the Blues' regulars in expected goals plus expected assists per 90 minutes (0.87). His role as the first-choice penalty taker is a big positive, too.

Sofyan Amrabat to Be Booked (+165): Going back to the United-Liverpool game, it's easy to envision a scenario where Amrabat goes into the book.

He's been carded twice in only six EPL starts, and he should be very busy in the middle of the pitch Sunday at Anfield. It profiles as a match that'll be somewhat similar to United's home 3-0 defeat against Manchester City, and Amrabat received a yellow card in that one despite playing only 45 minutes.

I think Amrabat will see a yellow on Sunday for either one bad tackle or an accumulation of fouls as United try to keep from being run over.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.