Pacers vs. Bucks: Betting Picks and Prediction for Game 5

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Pacers vs. Bucks: Betting Picks and Prediction for Game 5

The Indiana Pacers take a 3-1 series lead to the Cream City to take on the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.

After dropping Game 1, the Pacers have bounced back to win three straight. They're now one win away from advancing to the Eastern Conference Semifinals.

Indiana now has -4500 odds to win the series while Milwaukee has +1300 odds to win it.

The Pacers are down to +1000 odds to win the Eastern Conference and +4100 odds to win the NBA Finals.

The Bucks have +6500 odds to win the East and +15000 odds to win it all.

Let's dive into the odds and break down the matchup for Pacers-Bucks Game 5.

All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NBA Playoffs Betting

Pacers-Bucks Betting Odds

Date and Time: April 30th at 9:30 p.m. ET

Spread: Pacers -4.0 (-114)

Total: 216

Moneyline:

Pacers: -180
Bucks: +152

Pacers vs. Bucks Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Adjusted offensive/defensive ratings and pace via DunksAndThrees.

Indiana Pacers:
- nERD: 56.3 (14th)
- Adjusted Offensive Rating: 120.1 (2nd)
- Adjusted Defensive Rating: 117.9 (24th)
- Pace: 102.1 (2nd)
- Against-the-Spread Record: 44-35-3
Milwaukee Bucks:
- nERD: 60.5 (8th)
- Adjusted Offensive Rating: 117.6 (6th)
- Adjusted Defensive Rating: 115.3 (19th)
- Pace: 110.4 (7th)
- Against-the-Spread Record: 41-40-1

Pacers vs. Bucks Best Bet

Over 216 (-110)

Here are the totals for the first four games of the series: 203, 233, 239, and 239.

Granted, Game 3 went to overtime, but Indiana and Milwaukee still combined for 222 points in regulation.

That latest high-scoring affair came with Damian Lillard joining Giannis Antetokounmpo on the bench, so I'm more than happy to back the over here tonight, even with both Bucks' stars sidelined.

For one, we know both offenses can put up points in bunches. The Pacers led the NBA with 123.3 points per game during the regular season, and they've averaged 116.5 through four games of this series.

Milwaukee is no slouch on O, either. The Bucks averaged 119.0 points per game in the regular season. And, while we don't have much of a sample of them without both Giannis and Dame, they did put up 107 on the Oklahoma City Thunder's fourth-rated defense without those two in the regular season.

A big reason why these teams score so much is because of their frenetic pace. Indiana ranked second with 102.2 possessions per game during the regular season, while Milwaukee ranked eighth with 100.5.

Neither team has shown much on the defensive end, either. The Pacers gave up 120.2 points per game during the regular season (27th). The Bucks gave up 116.4 (21st).

That's resulted in eight of the nine matchups between these sides going over 216 total points.

This 216 total is just too low for two teams who like to get up and down as much as the Pacers and Bucks too. numberFire's model projects 242.9 points between the two. Even with Giannis and Dame out, there should be more than enough offense to hit the over tonight.

Pacers vs. Bucks Prop Bet

Khris Middleton Over 25.5 Points (-115)

If we're envisioning this game to go over 216, it makes sense to target some points props.

I'll turn to Bucks wing Khris Middleton and look for him to go over 25.5 points.

Middleton has only hit the over on this line once through four games, but he did it with ease in Game 3, exploding for 42 points on 16-of-29 shooting. That came with Lillard hobbled, and Middleton proceeded to drop 25 in Game 4 with the former out.

While he fell just shy of hitting the over on this line last game, he still put up 22 shots. That's the kind of usage we're looking for with such a hefty number on deck.

It helps that he's notched 40 minutes the last two games. In seven games without Antetokounmpo this season (but still with Lillard), Middleton has averaged .61 points per minute, according to RotoGrinders CourtIQ. With a 40-minute workload, that would put him at 24.4 points, right in range of this 25.5-point prop.

The matchup is ripe for the taking, too. For the season, Indiana surrendered the second-most points to SFs and the third-most to SGs, per FantasyPros.

With enhanced usage on deck, Khris Middleton should again be the top dog for the Bucks. In what should be a high-scoring affair, I like Middleton to cruise past this 25.5-point prop.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.