Olympic Tennis Best Bets: Zheng vs. Vekic Gold Medal Match

The women's singles tennis tournament wraps up at the Paris Olympics on Saturday in a final that few likely saw coming between Qinwen Zheng and Donna Vekic.

Where can we find betting value in this gold medal match?

Olympic Tennis Best Bets

Qinwen Zheng vs. Donna Vekic

Zheng -3.5 Games (-118)
Zheng 2-0 Sets (+115)

Not only did Qinwen Zheng defeat the Queen of Clay Iga Swiatek in the semifinals, but she inexplicably did so in straight sets (6-2, 7-5). Keep in mind that Swiatek is the reigning French Open champion -- a major she's already won four times -- and entered the Olympics with an absurd 21-1 record on clay this season.

On top of all that, the world No. 1 also held a dominant 6-0 head-to-head record over Zheng going into the match.

Unsurprisingly, Zheng now finds herself as the favorite to win gold over another surprise entry, Donna Vekic.

Vekic was also impressive in her semifinal match, knocking out Anna Karolina Schmiedlova 6-4, 6-0 in just over an hour, and she came into the games in good form after reaching the semifinals at Wimbledon.

However, this is arguably Zheng's strongest surface, as her 68.3% win percentage on clay is her best of the three, per Tennis Abstract, and she entered Paris having won 80.0% of her clay matches over the last 52 weeks. She also bounced back from an early exit at Wimbledon by winning a clay title at Palermo right before the Olympics.

On the other hand, Vekic's career win rate is the worst on clay (45.2%), and she was just 3-4 on clay in 2024 before coming here.

Massey Rating projects a 77% win probability for Zheng with the most likely outcome being a straight-sets victory. Tennis Abstract ranks Zheng as the WTA's sixth-best player in clay-blended Elo rating with a score nearly 200 points higher than Vekic's mark.

Zheng looks likely to cover this spread, and there may also be value in backing her to win in straight sets.

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