NRFI Bets to Target on Tuesday 5/7/24

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin
NRFI Bets to Target on Tuesday 5/7/24

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Best NRFI Prop Bets

San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies

Over 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-120)

Although we will see temperatures dipping below 60 degrees and strong winds blowing across the field at Coors Field tonight, this is still a game showing a hefty 10.5 over/under, so we're still expecting plenty of offense. Yet unlike most Coors games, the odds are showing just a slight lean toward a YRFI, presenting us with potential betting value.

The Colorado Rockies are planning to start Dakota Hudson, and that should immediately increase our confidence in the San Francisco Giants' bats coming through.

It's been ugly all around for Hudson, who comes in with a 5.25 SIERA, 12.8% strikeout rate, and 12.1% walk rate over six starts. The right-hander does have a 56.3% ground-ball rate going for him, which does lower the chance of a home run, but that might be the only positive.

While Hudson has somehow managed to convert a NRFI in five of those outings, there's nothing about his early-inning splits to suggest it's anything more than a fluke. He's produced a 6.33 xFIP and 9.3% K rate the first time through the order this season.

The Giants' lineup hasn't been great in the first inning this year (19.4% YRFI rate), but Hudson has poor splits against both sides of the plate, and Coors Field should give its usual boost. LaMonte Wade Jr is performing well at the plate (.393 xwOBA) despite hitting just one home run so far.

The matchup for Colorado's offense against Kyle Harrison is much tougher, but there's still room for optimism.

While the southpaw has elite lefty-lefty splits in 2024 (39.5% K rate), that hasn't been the case versus right-handed hitters, where we find a 4.56 xFIP and 19.0% strikeout rate. He's also allowing a 46.6% fly-ball rate against righties, which we love to see at Coors Field.

Other than regular number-three hitter Ryan McMahon, it's possible the rest of the Rockies' order will be entirely righty sticks.

Colorado's lineup may not have amazing first-inning numbers, but when they're at home, we see their YRFI rate jump to a whopping 46.2%. For context, if that was their overall YRFI clip, it would lead the league, besting even the Los Angeles Dodgers' 45.9%.

Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-113)

And speaking of the Dodgers, this is the rare occasion where we're going to take a shot at them not scoring in the opening frame. This matchup has the day's lowest total (7.5), but these NRFI odds are no different than games with higher over/unders.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto is easy to buy into and shouldn't have much trouble keeping the Miami Marlins off the board. Yamamoto has recorded a 2.83 SIERA, 30.0% strikeout rate, and 5.7% walk rate over seven starts, and he's produced a NRFI five times.

The Marlins have a below-average YRFI rate (24.3%) and recently traded away leadoff man Luis Arraez. Miami's lineup tends to have a pretty even split of lefties and righties, but Yamamoto has strong metrics against both, so that shouldn't be an issue.

Assuming Yamamoto holds up his end of the bargain, the real question will be whether Edward Cabrera can put the clamps down on the Dodgers.

Despite otherwise shaky results, Cabrera is a perfect 4-for-4 in NRFIs thus far, flashing a stellar 2.99 SIERA, 35.3% strikeout rate, and 54.5% ground-ball rate in 2024. His 3.50 xERA and a sky-high .395 BABIP also suggest that he's undeserving of his 6.05 ERA.

The main worry is a bloated 18.4% walk rate to left-handed batters, albeit over a small sample. While that's of obvious concern when Cabrera faces Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman, he's still generating a 26.3% K rate against lefties and performed well against them last year. He's been elite in same-handed matchups (42.6% K rate; 60.9% ground-ball rate), which is a great sign for him versus the always dangerous Mookie Betts.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.