NRFI Bets to Target on Thursday 5/9/24

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin
NRFI Bets to Target on Thursday 5/9/24

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Best NRFI Prop Bets

San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies

Over 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-108)

The San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies failed to score in the first inning at Coors Field for the second straight day, but considering the Giants had a six-run second inning -- and the Rockies also added a run -- yesterday's YRFI pick feels like a near-miss.

We're once again seeing a slight lean toward a NRFI (-118) over a YRFI (-108) despite this game having a slate-high 9.5 over/under, so the latter looks like the value play. While temperatures will be hovering around 50 degrees this afternoon, we saw cooler weather on Wednesday and the two teams still combined for 14 runs.

Right-hander Cal Quantrill will toe the rubber for Colorado, and he's one of the slate's weakest arms. Over seven starts, Quantrill has posted a 4.77 SIERA and 15.5% strikeout rate, and he's already coughed up six home runs, which have been split evenly between lefties and righties.

Quantrill has demonstrated shaky splits against both sides of the plate dating back to last year, so everyone in the top half of the Giants' order will have a good chance of doing damage. Cleanup hitter Michael Conforto led off the second inning with a dinger yesterday, so the hope is he comes to the plate in the opening frame today, as he will have the platoon advantage and leads the team with a .487 xSLG (83rd percentile).

If San Francisco fails to score, the Rockies have a solid matchup against Keaton Winn. While Winn has an annoying 59.1% ground-ball rate, he has a rather mediocre 4.42 xERA due in part to a 6th-percentile hard-hit rate.

The right-hander is oddly struggling in same-handed matchups, showing a 4.46 xFIP and 16.0% K rate in the split. Righties like Ezequiel Tovar and Elias Diaz could have an easier time getting on base, and as one would expect, both players perform far better in the confines of Coors Field.

Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-113)

We will also see temperatures nearing 50 degrees in Chicago, but in this case, we don't have the high altitude to compensate, leaving this matchup with a much lower 8.0 over/under.

The Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox offenses haven't scored very often in the first inning, ranking T-22nd (21.6%) and 28th (18.9%), respectively, in YRFI rate. This further increases the chance of pitchers Erick Fedde and Ben Lively coming through with a NRFI.

After years of mediocre MLB results, Fedde has seemingly turned his career around following a stellar 2023 campaign in Korea. He comes in with a 3.72 SIERA and 3.67 xERA, and his 25.0% K rate is easily the best of his career. He's held the opposition scoreless in the first inning in 5 of 7 outings.

Lively is another KBO alum experiencing a successful 2024 campaign. While he's probably lucky to have a 2.08 ERA, we'll still gladly take his 3.28 SIERA, 28.6% strikeout rate, and 7.1% walk rate. Lively's K rate is also a career-best, and he's a perfect 4 for 4 in NRFIs.

As their low YRFI rates would suggest, both Cleveland and Chicago have underwhelming offensive metrics in the first inning. The Guardians have produced a 67 wRC+ and .130 ISO in the first frame while the White Sox have an 82 wRC+ and .116 ISO.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.