NRFI Bets to Target on Thursday 5/2/24

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin
NRFI Bets to Target on Thursday 5/2/24

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Best NRFI Prop Bets

Chicago Cubs at New York Mets

Over 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-108)

While Citi Field is a pitcher's park, temperatures nearing 80 degrees and winds blowing out at roughly 10 mph should give a bump to bats, making this a potential YRFI spot to consider at these odds.

Of the two starting pitchers, New York Mets right-hander Adrian Houser is the obvious weak link. Over five starts, Houser has put up a 6.01 SIERA, 12.3% strikeout rate, and 14.0% walk rate, and his Statcast page is about as ugly as it gets. He's gotten rocked in back-to-back starts, and even his better outings have been plagued by poor control.

Houser has posted poor splits against lefties and righties alike, which bodes well for a Chicago Cubs lineup that features batters of both types in the top half. Although the Cubs are missing a couple of their top hitters due to injury, Mike Tauchman and Michael Busch are both showing nice pop this year and will have the platoon advantage.

In contrast to Houser, Ben Brown has far better underlying metrics with a 3.50 SIERA, 23.7% strikeout rate, and 6.5% walk rate. But if we're looking for some potential holes in his profile, he's giving up a ton of hard contact, leading to an ugly 5.78 xERA.

The hope is that this trend continues, particularly with the powerful Pete Alonso batting cleanup. Brown has induced a mere 27.8% ground-ball rate to righties thus far, so if Alonso gets ahold of one, we could hit this bet with one swing in these ideal hitting conditions.

San Francisco Giants at Boston Red Sox

Over 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-113)

This game has a slate-high 9.5 over/under, so it's rather unusual to see such just -113 odds for a YRFI. It could be worth jumping on this value at one of the league's best hitting parks, and it can't hurt that we're also seeing some wind blowing toward the Green Monster in left field.

The Boston Red Sox will start Josh Winckowski, who's been solid as a reliever and fill-in starter. However, he's posted mediocre marks versus left-handed batters with a 4.59 xFIP, 14.9% strikeout rate, and 12.8% walk rate. While he's also produced an elite 62.5% ground-ball rate in the split, the strikeout and walk numbers leave a lot up to chance. The San Francisco Giants could have lefties in three of the first five slots in the order to take advantage.

Although left-hander Kyle Harrison has also performed pretty well over six starts for San Francisco, we once again see stark splits. Harrison has dominated lefties thus far, but when facing righty sticks, he's recorded a 4.40 xFIP and 17.1% strikeout rate.

Boston righty Tyler O'Neill has been one of the team's best hitters this season, rocking a 95th percentile xwOBA and 96th percentile xSLG. The Red Sox project to bat Robert Refsnyder third against the southpaw, too, giving Harrison another righty to contend with in the first inning.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.