NRFI Bets to Target on Friday 5/24/24

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Best NRFI Prop Bets

Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds

Over 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-142)

The Los Angeles Dodgers' lethal offense leads the league in YRFI rate this season (42.3%) and now makes their way to Great American Ball Park to face the Cincinnati Reds. Between these Dodgers, a hitter-friendly venue, temperatures in the 80s, and mediocre starting pitchers, this game is showing a lofty 10.5 over/under and looks ripe for a YRFI.

Los Angeles will be opposite Cincinnati right-hander Graham Ashcraft, who induces grounders at a 51.0% clip but otherwise has an unimposing 18.7% strikeout rate and 4.23 SIERA. This will be Ashcraft's second straight start against the Dodgers, and while he didn't allow a YRFI in the first meeting, that familiarity doesn't bode well for him.

The 26-year-old's low strikeout rate applies to both lefties (17.1%) and righties (20.2%), so all of the Dodgers' stars could get in on the fun. Five of the seven dingers Ashcraft has allowed have come off lefties, though, and we see Shohei Ohtani has the second-shortest odds to hit a home run on the entire slate (+255).

As much as we like the Dodgers' chances of cashing this YRFI, it's not like the Reds' bats need to be a complete afterthought against James Paxton.

The veteran left-hander has put up a 2.84 ERA, but it's about as undeserving as you can get. Paxton has horrible marks in all of xFIP (5.43), xERA (5.55), and SIERA (5.86), and both his strikeout and walk rates sit at an identical -- and abysmal -- 13.0%. He's also allowing just a 37.8% ground-ball rate, so his 1.02 HR/9 will almost certainly rise.

Regression is coming for Paxton in a big way, and Cincinnati projects to counter the southpaw with right-handed batters across the first five slots in the order.

Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies

Over 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-138)

We find another top offense entering a run-boosting environment as the Philadelphia Phillies begin a series at Coors Field against the Colorado Rockies. Philadelphia is second in YRFI rate (39.2%), and this matchup also features a 10.5 over/under.

If the Coors Field bump wasn't great enough, the Phillies also get an inviting matchup against lefty Ty Blach. Across six appearances (three starts), Blach has posted a 4.71 SIERA and 5.44 xERA, and K rates don't get much worse than his 11.4%. He's allowed a YRFI in all three of those traditional starts this year.

While Blach has good surface numbers in lefty-lefty matchups in 2024, he's been thoroughly mediocre in the split over his career (4.58 xFIP), so that's unlikely to last. He isn't getting many punchouts or ground balls versus lefties or righties, giving all Philadelphia batters a strong chance of doing damage in the confines of Coors Field.

Remember how Ohtani was behind just one hitter for the shortest home run odds today? Well, Kyle Schwarber is that other guy with +240 odds to hit a home run. Fellow lefty Bryce Harper has short odds to hit a home run (+310), too, further suggesting that these two sluggers could get to Blach despite the lefty-lefty matchup.

On the other side, the Rockies are a middling overall offense, but they've posted a 36.8% YRFI rate at home compared to just 26.7% on the road. For context, the New York Yankees and Houston Astros are producing YRFIs roughly 36% of the time this year, so that Coors Field effect is no joke.

Phillies left-hander Cristopher Sanchez is enjoying a quality campaign, and his 61.0% ground-ball rate could help him stay out of trouble. However, he's roughly average in both strikeout rate (22.2%) and walk rate (8.5%), and he's logged a NRFI in just 66.7% of his starts.

Other than lefty batter Ryan McMahon, the Rockies project to otherwise have all righties against the southpaw. Although they're unlikely to hit a long ball against an elite ground-ball pitcher like Sanchez -- no Rockies hitter has odds better than +520 to hit a home run -- they should be able to get plenty of balls in play, which can quickly lead to things getting out of hand in Denver's venue.

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