NRFI Bet to Target on Thursday 4/18/24

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The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Best NRFI Prop Bet

Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox

Over 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-106)

Temperatures are expected to be below 50 degrees at first pitch with the wind blowing in from right field, so conditions won't be ideal for hitting this afternoon at Fenway Park.

Yet this contest has a solid 9.0-run over/under that was even up at 9.5 earlier this morning, making these appealing odds to take a shot on a Yes Run First Inning (YRFI).

Likely the biggest factor working in our favor is Cleveland Guardians right-hander Carlos Carrasco. A top-of-the-rotation starter in his prime, Carrasco is now 37 years old with seemingly little left in the tank, as he was crushed for a 6.77 xERA over 20 starts in 2023.

While the results haven't been terrible through three outings this season, Carrasco has produced a 5.29 xFIP, 20.0% K rate, and 16.4% walk rate, none of which should scare the Boston Red Sox today.

Of particular note is that the top half of Boston's lineup will be loaded with lefties. Carrasco had issues with both sides of the plate last season, but his numbers were especially poor when facing lefty sticks, showing a 5.58 xFIP, 13.4% strikeout rate, and 13.9% walk rate. The Red Sox have performed well in the first inning this season, too, scoring at a 31.6% clip (tied for 10th-best).

Boston will utilize southpaw Brennan Bernardino as an opener, and he could be the troublesome part of this bet. Bernardino has been excellent over four appearances in 2024, rocking a 40.0% strikeout rate and 50.0% ground-ball rate over 5 1/3 innings.

But the main issue is that as a lefty, Bernardino matches up well with Cleveland's lefty-heavy top of the order. In 2023, the southpaw put up a 3.03 xFIP, 27.4% strikeout rate, 3.6% walk rate, and 66.0% ground-ball rate in same-handed matchups.

The hope here is that switch-hitter Jose Ramirez can do damage against Bernardino, as the left-hander was significantly worse in both walk rate (11.4%) and ground-ball rate (40.0%) versus righty sticks. Additionally, if Cleveland opts to bump up a righty or two in the order to counter Boston's opener, that could also help us cash this YRFI.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.