NRFI Best Bets to Target on Wednesday 8/7/24

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NRFI Best Bets Today

Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays

Over 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-115)

This matchup has the highest non-Coors over/under of the day (9.5) and looks like an enticing spot for a YRFI.

Right-hander Bowden Francis has mostly been used a reliever by the Toronto Blue Jays this season, but he's making his fifth start tonight.

The first five Baltimore Orioles hitters are all projected to bat left-handed, which will make life difficult for Francis. Against lefties, the 28-year-old has posted a 4.86 xFIP, 16.0% strikeout rate, and 9.6% walk rate, and if we look strictly at his four starts, he's put up an even worse 6.11 xFIP in the split.

Francis has also been scored upon in two of his four first innings, and the last time came against these same Orioles last week, so his opponent is also already familiar with his arsenal.

Despite being one of the league's better offenses, Baltimore has been a middle-of-the-pack team in YRFI rate (28.1%), but they've been on the rise lately, producing an elite 40.0% YRFI clip over the last 25 games. This bump has probably been a long time coming, too, as they boast the sixth-best wRC+ (120) in the first inning this year.

Lefty Trevor Rogers will start for Baltimore, and he'll likely see righties in three of the first slots in the Toronto lineup. When facing that handedness, Rogers has put up a lackluster 4.76 xFIP, 16.8% K rate, and 9.0% BB rate. Additionally, he's posted a mediocre 68.2% NRFI rate over his 22 starts.

The Blue Jays were at one point one of the very worst offenses in YRFI rate, but they've now logged a 36.0% clip over their last 25 contests. Across the past 30 days, they've produced the league's third-best wOBA (.420) and sixth-best ISO (.267) in the opening frame.

Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves

Over 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-102)

A potential pitchers' duel between Chris Sale and Freddy Peralta might seem like a strange place to look for a YRFI, but both of these hurlers haven't been at their best in the first inning this season.

Sale remains the favorite to win the NL Cy Young at +110 odds, yet he's logged a NRFI in just 11 of his 20 starts (55.0%). That's actually the slate's worst rate among starters with double-digit starts this season. His first inning FIP (5.52) is easily his worst of any inning.

Incredibly, Sale has given up just eight home runs all season, but five have come in the first inning. While his underlying metrics in the opening frame are by no means poor (3.62 xFIP, 27.0% strikeout rate, and 9.0% walk rate), they pale in comparison to his overall marks (2.65 xFIP, 32.2% strikeout rate, and 5.8% walk rate).

It also can't hurt that Sale is facing the Milwaukee Brewers for the second straight start, and Milwaukee scored both of their runs that day in the first inning. The Brewers have recorded a solid 32.0% YRFI rate over their last 25 games, as well.

Peralta also comes in with a subpar NRFI rate (63.6%) over 22 starts and has been scored upon in the first inning in 4 of his last 6 outings. In the opening inning, he's coughed up 6 dingers with a 4.47 xFIP and 12.5% BB rate.

The Atlanta Braves have been about average in YRFI rate (27.7%) but have the power to get us over with one swing. Peralta has given up 1.66 HR/9 to right-handed batters this year, and it just so happens that righties Jorge Soler (+350 to his a home run), Marcell Ozuna (+285), and Austin Riley (+320) should be the first three batters in the lineup.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.