NRFI Best Bets to Target on Monday 8/12/24

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NRFI Best Bets Today

Chicago Cubs at Cleveland Guardians

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-120)

Starting pitchers Shota Imanaga and Ben Lively have both enjoyed success in the first inning, and we should like the chances of the two combining for a NRFI on Monday.

Lively's season-long profile is mixed at best, but what interests us here is that the right-hander performs at his best the first time through the order with a 3.90 xFIP, 25.0% strikeout rate, and 7.2% walk rate. That's helped him to a 90.0% NRFI rate over 20 starts, the best mark of anyone on the slate who's made double-digit starts this year.

The Chicago Cubs' offense is tied for just 23rd in YRFI rate (23.5%), and despite having some solid pop in the top half of the order, none of their players have shorter than +440 odds to hit a home run.

Imanaga continues to enjoy a strong campaign in MLB, entering the day with a 3.47 SIERA, 25.7% K rate, and 3.6% BB rate. His strikeout rate jumps to 28.6% the first time through the order, and he's been even more lethal in the first inning alone with a massive 37.2% clip. Given all that, it probably isn't a surprise the lefty has logged a top-notch 85.7% NRFI rate through 21 outings.

The Cleveland Guardians' bats have fallen off in the first inning lately, putting up just a 20.0% YRFI rate over their last 25 contests. Over their last 30 days, they've produced just a 60 wRC+ and .086 ISO in the opening frame, which are both bottom-five marks.

Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-125)

This matchup has the slate's second-lowest over/under (7.5) and will be aided by both strong pitching and pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field.

The Houston Astros will have Framber Valdez on the mound, and the southpaw has been up to his usual tricks, producing a 3.33 xFIP behind an elite 59.2% ground-ball rate. Add in that he's in the 87th percentile in barrel rate, and he's given up just 0.79 HR/9. The lefty owns an 85.0% NRFI rate across 20 starts and has secured a NRFI in 11 of his last 12 outings.

It also doesn't hurt that Valdez has been really dealing lately, too. He's racked up 10 Ks in three of his last five starts, and in his last appearance, he came one out away from notching a no-hitter.

The Tampa Bay Rays have generally been an above-average offense in the first inning this season, but over the last 30 days, they've put up just an 87 wRC+ in the opening inning. With Valdez on the mound, no Rays batter has better than +520 odds to hit a home run.

Tampa Bay will start right-hander Taj Bradley, another hurler who's having an excellent year despite coming off a pair of shaky starts. Over 16 outings, Bradley has recorded a 3.47 xFIP and 28.7% strikeout rate, and those metrics are even better the first time through the order, where we see a stellar 2.26 xFIP and 37.5% K rate. He's converted a NRFI in 81.3% of his contests.

While the Astros have the always dangerous Yordan Alvarez, they've put up just a 24.0% YRFI rate over their last 25 games.

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